• Never Admit Your Worst Fears: Honest Lincoln was able to win because he convinced people that the South would not secede under his leadership but would have to accept the implications of his nomination. Namely, Lincoln had called for the end to the expansion of slavery into western US territories like Kansas which had become a firestorm of violence. The Republicans didn’t even bother running a slate in most Southern states. The Democrats were positioning that Lincoln would destroy the US. In response, Lincoln promised that the South would never seperate from the union. Lincoln claimed that the South was trying to bargain for a better position. In truth, Lincoln had received many death threats. He was aware of the dangers of his being elected. He won with 39.9% of the vote over Douglas’ 29.5%. The vote split badly for the Democrats as they were not aligned with Southern interests. Ultimately, Lincoln came to Washington under a cloak for fear of being killed before inauguration. He hired a sizable garrison of federal troops to protect him. Most Republicans were surprised by the secession winter of 1860-1861. Some historians contend that he miscalculated the gravity of the crisis OR he knew that if he wasn’t elected then major societal change would not have been possible.
Never Believe You Are Beaten (Even If The Media Prints It!): (Presidential Race 1948) Israel is born, the bikini is unveiled, the jet breaks the sound barrier but Truman was going to lose according to Life Magazine to Dewey. Henry Wallace had split from the Democrats. Truman didn’t implement a cohesive campaign strategy: he took to a railway-styled campaign. Truman had big crowds. The people turned out to see Harry Truman. Truman attacked the Republican’s for their coldness. Truman believed that the Republicans were trying to steal from the poor. Truman called bankers “blood suckers of Wall Street”. Truman had solid attack lines. Dewey on the other hand was careful, cruel and controlled. Dewey didn’t want to make mistakes he wanted to ride his poll numbers which were much higher than Truman’s. Truman looked likely to lose despite Dewey’s lazy campaigning. Truman lashed out at the Republican congress, press, and the candidate. Truman did the best he knew how. Dewey had 49.5 to 44.5 for Truman at the end of the campaign. None of the press believed that Truman would win. On Election Night, Truman had the popular vote by 2 million votes but the farm vote had not come in until past 2am. At 10:14am the next morning, Dewey was defeated after many newspapers went to print. Truman was the miracle man. Not one of the polling organizations was accurate. Not one of the newspapers was accurate; the people had made fools of those “in the know”. This event was dubbed: “the great laughter of the public”. The press was dumbfounded. Gallup was completely embarrassed. The fault was not the polls were imperfect but that they were two weeks too late. On the last two weeks of the campaign Gallup did not take anymore polls. There was a massive shift in support in the last two weeks of the campaign. 2/3 of the population of Washington came to welcome Truman for his inauguration in 1948.