Why Kurzweil Is Wrong
Here are the TOP 10 reasons that Kurzweil might not have super accurate predictions about the future of the entire human species:
1) NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE ACCURATELY. No human being can know with certainty what will happen in the future, especially 5 years or greater. Will water levels rise in 2012 or 2013 sparking new action on Climate Change? Maybe. Not sure eitherway. If someone could predict the future perfectly than they would be billionaires, and we would all want to be their best friend. In the 1960s, people thought every household would have a robot to clean their kitchens. Did that happen? Nope. I consider Kurzweil to be the “You Will Have A Robot In Your House, Guy” of the last decade. He has cool ideas which are fun to think about, BUT you know what also is fun to imagine?….Robots cleaning my kitchen…where my robots at? Oh right, the prediction in the 1960s was wrong. Why was it wrong? Because of the following core critique which I have laid down to blow a giant hole in Kurzweil’s predictions:
2) HUMAN BEINGS ARE UNPREDICTABLE: the Arab Spring and protests in Russia were not something political scientists or anybody predicted would happen in 2011. BUT they happened anyway. Why? It’s because human beings can sometimes have control over what they want in the world around them. Humans have something (that in social science is) called: AGENCY. They can decide to mobilize, and protest a regime. Not sure when they will protest but humans can make random irrational choices. People can decide whether they want a Segway or not. People can decide if they want an iPad. Every time Apple comes out with a product, they take a risk. With regard to Kurzweil, people can decide whether they want to be converted into a computer or not. Some people will want to live forever as a computer, while some people will try to stop them for moral reasons.
3) Politicians are more powerful than technology when it comes to human life: In 2004, George Bush said that stem-cell research was immoral so he made it illegal to conduct research on stem cells in the US. For this reason, stem cell research was dramatically halted in the US. In this case a politician said “We will not allow that to happen” and he blocked cancer research on stem cell research in the US for a long time to come. Another guy who had a cult called the Raelians said that he would be able to clone a human being. Fine, the technology is there to clone a human. It’s just too bad that cloning a human is illegal. Politicians have difficulty controlling the internet like in Eqypt, and China, but they are pretty good at smacking down biological research and development when it is morally questionable.
4) If it is possible, Kurzweil’s Singularity Will Likely Be Made Illegal: Assuming that he is right that computer development will follow his predictions to the letter, then some lawyers will come along and smack him and his idea of immortality down because of the legal implications, and the mess that immortality would bring. Why? Because immortality is not Christian, and immortality is probably only for the super rich. Organized religion will try to crush Kurzweil with an iron fist. Any technology that bi-passes human life cycles will be stopped from being legal. So the Pope, and other morally conscious politicians stopped a) Cloning, b) Stem-Cell Research, c) GENETIC MODIFICATION OF HUMAN BEINGS, making these activities all illegal. Legally speaking, transference to a computer would be an unpleasant, and desperate attempt to extend ones life in the first trial periods, many people would die in the transference tests. So, moving from human to computer might be made illegal I would think.
5) EXPONENTIAL GROWTH & MOORE’S LAW MIGHT BE SLOWING DOWN: Kurzweil’s leap of faith is the core problem, which is that Moore’s law “will never slow down from exponential growth.” Once we let computers build themselves, they will start to do cool things like control human beings, and enslaving human beings….Whatever, some people actually think Moore’s law is not going to continue at its current rate. I don’t know for sure, technology is developing fast. Great, we benefit from it most of the time.
6) KUZWEIL MADE A BUNCH OF PREDICTIONS THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN AND YET HE ALWAYS CLAIMS IN HIS BOOKS THAT EVERYTHING THAT HE PREDICTS WILL HAPPEN WITH FULL CONFIDENCE: Kurzweil’s predictions are just predictions, they might not happen. He is thinking in the right directions generally BUT many things he predicted did not happen. Read my blog posts. Kurzweil predicted many things that didn’t happen (see picture to the left). Why else would he create new editions to his books every 5 years? Because he needs to re-calibrate his predictions/and make more money! But yes, mapping the human brain will (probably) happen, and we will be able to program ourselves into that hard-drive BUT THAT LIFE WOULD BE ARTIFICIAL, AND IT MIGHT ACTUALLY SUCK LIVING FOREVER!
7) FUTURISM IS NOT REAL SCIENCE: Predicting the future is what all science fiction tries to do. But it’s about exploring the current world and having some fun as well. I love science fiction, and yes, science fiction helps to shape what we might want in the future. For example, in an original Star Trek episode there is this typewriter that can understand human speech, and transcribes someone’s dictation. iPhone 4S does that today. So, yes science fiction inspires people. But, this example does not mean that everything in science fiction will happen. Example, Klingons are not real. Another example, George Orwell’s 1984 did not happen. Why would a Venture Capitalist like Kurzweil have all his predictions come true? There are thousands of Venture Capitalists that loose money every year! Kurzweil makes predictions, these are not facts because 2045 has not happened yet. My blog posts explain why his ideas are cool but immoral, naïve, and dangerous with the outmost respect for his interesting book(s). It’s just a book, don’t believe everything you read!
8) YOUR FAITH IS MISGUIDED! There are a lot of ideas about the future out there. Kurzweil is wise for tapping into the Generation X market, and other aging computer geeks. These people are now more, and more aware of their own mortality so Kurzweil’s ideas are perfect for making some serious money by convincing people that they might be able to live forever, and exploring some cool questions, and ideas that have never been developed before. However, let’s see how Kurzweil is kind of operating a cult here: (1) How much money have you given Kurzweil in the last few years? If you bought two books for sure, and you have told about 100 people about this book, you would be a great little marketeer/prophet for Kurzweil’s publishing company. (2)Kurzweil has cultist tendencies because he attacks people who challenge his views. Kurzweil even says that people who want to curb the power of technology over human development are basically crazy Uni-bombers…..Guess who else associates detractors with criminals in this way; Scientologists! Think about the Catholic Church versus Dan Brown. “Dan Brown’s The DaVinci Code is a monstrous man, do not let his lies destroy our glorious religion.” These movements attack those who disagree with them because they know that their ideas rely on something beyond the purely logical. These movements, including Kurzweil’s, are about taking a leap of faith. Kurzweil asks his true believers to take a leap of faith. Just like when Jesus rose from the dead, science says that’s crazy. Or when AI get the legal rights of human beings, lawyers will say that is dangerous. Ever read Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot?
9) YOUR QUALITY OF LIFE: After these soul transfer proved successful, the problem would be the kind of life that one would lead as a computer. There are alot of What Ifs in Kurzweil’s predictions. What kind of quality of life are we talking about by the way if people are able to move towards being computers? What about people who cannot afford the transfer fees? It’s all very complicated, and interesting but moral people will try to stop this from happening….Of course, that is also a prediction. I cannot say for certain any of this will happen. What would happen if your soul was hacked? Why would computers continue to serve human interests at that point? You know, some basic questions Kurzweil under emphasizes.
10) TECHNOLOGY IS NOT ALWAYS PROGRESSIVE: You have to realise that technological progress has negative side-effects. Hiroshima anyone? Technology triggers moral consequences that need to be assessed. Just because we can clone Mozart, does not mean we should. Have you ever seen the South Korea kids who play World of Warcraft all day? It’s kind of sick. So with the above arguments which are pretty logical I think, I have challenged Kurzweil’s predictions, I like his ideas, I don’t think they will happen as he predicts though.
Bearded Dragon Plays VideoGame
New ideas are created with the emergence of new technology. Old patterns of behaviour are adgumented. We didn’t think that lizards would be able to play video games until recently. The fact that this lizard got a high score is not a surprise, though;-p
What Is Affirmative Action? An Analysis Of The Temporary Arrangement Argument For Affirmative Action
The Ambiguity of Affirmative Action: Analysis of the Temporary Arrangement Argument
The policy of affirmative action has been suggested as a temporary arrangement, this article will attempt to discern on what basis and why such policies should be ended? First, this article will PROVIDE A brief overview of the policies of Affirmative Action. Second, it will explore the pejorative critiques. Third, it will outline five reasons inherent to the policy that make it ambiguous, arguing that this ambiguity results in self-perpetuation. Therefore, this article will assert that the concept of temporal arrangement is merely a way to placate pejorative critiques of the policy. Finally, this temporal ambiguity is necessary to continue affirmative action – in the liberal democratic context and elsewhere – which, while still problematic, should be adjusted to strategically target the disadvantaged beyond identity-markers given its positive outcomes on societal diversity and integration.
There is no universal definition of affirmative action[1], positive action[2] or positive discrimination[3], however the UN suggests that “Affirmative action is a coherent packet of measures, of a temporary character, aimed specifically at correcting the position of members of a target group in one or more aspects of their social life, in order to obtain effective equality.”[4] There are competing interpretations from the ECHR, ILO, ICCPR but for the purposes of this article, affirmative action can be generally defined as a liberal democratic approach to enhancing a disadvantaged groups’ equality of opportunity within the grasp of the state. At a practical level this policy has two direct outcomes; one can mean that when two equally qualified individuals apply for a position such as higher education[5] the individual belonging to a disadvantaged group is awarded the position; more controversially, it also can prohibit members of a non-designated group from applying for opportunities while less qualified members of a designated group with lower individual merit are awarded the position.
The justifications for implementing an affirmative action policy are compelling. It is compensation against intentional or accidental discrimination and past grievances – such as slavery – perpetrated by the dominant ethnie[6] and/or gender. It is seen as a necessary enhancement of diversity in the public and private sector of a society against the perpetuation of wealth and segregated social networking.[7] It can facilitate symbolic achievement of a minority group individual thus improving their collective standing in the perceptions of the dominant ethnie. It seeks to move to a society of equality of opportunity meaning taking into account the substantive[8] legal disadvantages or differences that formal legal equality does not. It is not just combating discrimination based on inalienable ethnicity or gender but combating legal interpretations of equality that advantage the dominant ethnie (white) and gender (male). Formal equality would allow Sandra Lovelace to be treated equally in relation to other Indian women but not equally to a male Indian under the provisions of the Canada’s Indian Act[9] which restricts the definition of Aboriginal membership by gender. Substantive equality and affirmative action are congruent legal concepts.
The pejorative critique of affirmative action almost overwhelms the justifications. While race and economic class converge at the bottom, the policy is inexact; it often advantages the socio-economically advantaged while under privileging the less skilled in a discriminated group while simultaneously disadvantaging the poor in the dominant ethnie who then mobilize through democratic means. Their consternation is about fairness and the individual versus group conceptions of equality. Should affluent African American children be beneficiaries of the policy? In addition, affirmative action fights racism by categorizing people using ethnicity: the very object of discrimination. Who decides who you are? Another common complaint is that weaker admitted candidates may do poorly through such programs and have a psychological backlash as demonstrated by the Madeline Heilman Study.[10] In addition, the most damaging critique is – according a prominent beneficiary of affirmative action; Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas – these policies perpetuate inequality, disrespect and that the normative goal of the US “constitution [to be] color-blind, and neither knows nor tolerated classes of citizenship.”[11]
Ambiguity of Affirmative Action
This article accepts the positive outcomes of affirmative action policy as outweighing the pejorative critiques with some adjustments, and will now focus specifically on the question of affirmative action as a temporary arrangement, arguing that a) ambiguity results in perpetuation of the policy and b) that a completion date for these policies is merely a way to placate pejorative critiques of the policy.
The Morawa article highlights the details of affirmative action as a temporary arrangement, first introduced in November of 1963. Quoting the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, affirmative action should protect disadvantaged groups “…however…such measures do not, as a consequence, lead to the maintenance of separate rights for different racial groups and that they shall not be continued after the objectives for which they were taken have been achieved.”[12] If this were true then why is there no proposed concrete mechanism or rubric specifying measurable completion and dismantling? The reality of most affirmative action policies is quite divergent from this assumption of temporary arrangement. The spectrum of continued affirmative action moves from immediate nullification to the disingenuous temporary status to permanence. Affirmative action has been given an end point but only forcibly through the will of the majority as was the case of Proposition 209 in California and Michigan Proposal 2006-2[13] and judicial adjustments to some policies. Never have affirmative action policies been dismantled on the basis of complete success in their objectives: the reasons are numerous but all fall under the idea of temporal ambiguity.
There are at least five reasons why affirmative action has an ambiguous end point that cannot be specified. Below are five specific ways in which affirmative action policies remain ambiguous on the matter of termination:
First, the most logically deduced answer to when affirmative action should cease is at the point where the number of employment or academic positions are proportionate to the groups percentage of the population. That is, the disadvantaged group demographic size mirrors and has reached equilibrium with the demographic representation within the public and private spheres of society. There are several problems here but most obvious is that once the policy has reached this watermark and is therefore effectively terminated, the subsequent absence of this policy would lead to decline in proportionality since establishing this proportionality required the express support of the state.[14] Therefore, affirmative action is a self-perpetuating policy that cannot be suddenly ended because it is an artificial imposition that cannot continue to work without the state. Some kind of gradual approach might remedy this first issue but there are other reasons for ambiguity.
The second problem is that, according to Morawa, affirmative action should be curbed based on whether the objective equality has been met. Objective equality is when “no reasonable and objective criteria exist that would justify a differentiation in treatment.”[15] This then leads to questions of what it means to be objective and whether the equality is reasonable. Interpretation of these two words can have affirmative action nullified tomorrow or never depending on the political leanings of the policy-markers.
The third problem is that affirmative action is anticipated to produce side-effects requiring further policy measures to deal with new forms of discrimination created in the wake of the initial policy. Morawa argues that “…Even action taken with the legitimate intent to remedy existing inequality adversely affecting one particular group may have an ‘unjustifiable disparate impact’ upon, or ‘disproportionately affect’ the rights of another distinguishable group.”[16] If there is continued anticipation of new distinguishable groups then the policies are effectively permanent only changing the identities of the beneficiaries.
The fourth problem would be that, according to the variety of cross-sectional cases highlighted by Modood, simply knowing when equality has been achieved is difficult to empirical quantify. Not all companies in the private and even the public sphere record detailed recruitment statistic to verify if the policy actually works. The constantly changing demographics of new immigrants also makes empirical measurements of any kind dubious at best. Therefore, ascertaining whether the policy is improving the situation of disadvantaged groups and the exact extent of that improvement is not being empirical measured. It was not until the Clinton’s 1995 Affirmative Action Review, that there were calls for “continual process to review the effectiveness and fairness of affirmative action programmes.”[17] In light of this, if there is no rigorous assessment there will be no means of ascertain its end point.
The fifth problem that has led to ambiguity is that politicians and legal scholars have entrenched affirmative action policies into their constitutions. This is particularly apparent in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms which gives provisions for Affirmative Action under Section 15 subsection 2.[18] The idea of a permanence in the policy conflicts with the goal of the policy as a longterm means to eventually do away to eventually eliminate prejudice. It suggests that since there will always be differences, there must always be discrimination and anti-discrimination. Implicit in the policy is that there is no end but continued permanence to an unspecified point. This article suggests this high degree of ambiguity regarding such policies serves to perpetuate them: it is a structural reality with no particular agency other than the original policy creators.
The question is why is it not clear when the policy should (if ever) be nullified: immediately, in 25 years or never? As is argued above, there is no limit for the foreseeable future unless it is forcibly nullified. Justice Sandra O’Connor’s claim, during the 2003 Grutter v Bollinger case, that the “[US Supreme] Court expects that twenty fiver years from now, the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today”[19] is so plainly arbitrary that it borders on rhetorical obfuscation. That is why, this article has argued that temporary arrangement claims are primarily a means of placating those who are not completely convinced of the virtues of affirmative action with the idea that it will not exist forever. A completion date for these policies is merely a means for liberals to argue for its continued support since their belief in the sacred value of individual rights is contradicted by support for disadvantaged rights. Unless these policies are forcibly removed – which is not desirable – the effect of continuing the myth of a temporary status placates critiques of the policy since it is purposively not permanent while effectively entrenching an unspecified permanence to such policies.
The ambiguity of affirmative action ultimately does not resolve the complaints, shortcomings and the contravention of individual merits rights. The negative side-effects almost derail the positive outcomes as was outlined above but a temporary arrangement is not going to resolve the underline pejorative critiques. There are many previous groups who have risen from collective poverty in America to be successful integration without affirmative action, particularly the Irish case.[20] Meanwhile, there are visible minorities who continue to struggle with policies that entrench their legal differentiation from society. The numerous treaties signed between the Crown and Aboriginal peoples in Canada is a permanent form of affirmative action which has limited or mixed results far to complicated to be addressed within this short article.
In conclusion, this article will briefly focus on what is to done about the ambiguity of affirmative action policies. Affirmative action needs to change who it targets not be nullified. If there is continued anticipation of new distinguishable groups then the policies are effectively permanent only changing the identities of the beneficiaries. Having said that, affirmative action has no limit as a permanent policy that contravenes individual merit with the goal of raising groups out of social inequality. There will always be somebody at the bottom and affirmative action will always have a role to play if the polity’s majority is willing to accept it. The policy of affirmative action has been suggested as a temporary arrangement, this article attempted to discern on what basis should such policies be ended by examining the policy of affirmative action with particular emphasis on the pejorative critiques which a temporary arrangement partly offsets but does not resolve. It outlined five reasons inherent to the policy that make it ambiguous and effectively permanent. Concluding that given this ambiguity of affirmative action policies, it should remain as long as the majority groups has tacitly accepted it and recognize that it is a permanent fixture that continues into future generations.
Work Cited
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A. H. E. Morawa, “The Concept of Non-Discrimination: An Introductory Comment”, Journal of Ethnic and Minority Issues in Europe, 3, 2002
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California Proposition 209: accessed 18.03.09: http://vote96.sos.ca.gov/BP/209text.html
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Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom: accessed 18.03.09: http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/charter/
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E. Kaufmann, ‘National Formation, Ethnic Reformation: the Social Sources of the American Nation’, Geopolitics, 7 (2), 98-120.
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Grutter v Bollinger 2003: accessed 18.03.09 http://www.enfacto.com/case/U.S./539/306/
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Heilman, ME (2004). “Penalties for success: Reactions to women who succeed at male gender-typed tasks”. Journal of applied psychology (0021-9010), 89 (3), p. 416.
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McGoldrick, Dominic. Canadian Indians, Cultural Rights and the Human Rights Committee. The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Jul., 1991), pp. 658-669.
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Professor Jackson-Preece: “Irish Rise in America.” EU458: Seminar 15.03.09
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T. Modood et. al, Developing Positive Action Policies: Learning from the Experiences of Europe and North America, 2006
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United Nations, Concept and Practice of Affirmative Action, 2002
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[1] Predominant term used in New World high immigrant countries such as Canada, the US and Australia
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[2] Predominant term used in the EU and the United Kingdom in order to circumvent the pejorative connotations associated with the backlash against affirmative action in the new world context.
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[3] Predominant term used to emphasize that negative discrimination against disadvantage groups is ubiquitous or alternatively to emphasize the policy is ‘unjust’ towards the dominant ethnie.
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[4] United Nations, Concept and Practice of Affirmative Action, 2002
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[5] An essential means of furthering equality of opportunity.
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[6] Coined by Anthony Smith by used in the Introduction of Kaufmann: E. Kaufmann, ‘National Formation, Ethnic Reformation: the Social Sources of the American Nation’, Geopolitics, 7 (2), 98-120.
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[7] As in low levels of integration because of limited opportunities to interethnic interaction within the society.
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[8] Substantive equality: taking into account disadvantages.
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[9] McGoldrick, Dominic. Canadian Indians, Cultural Rights and the Human Rights Committee. The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Jul., 1991), pp. 667.
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[10] Heilman, ME (2004). “Penalties for success: Reactions to women who succeed at male gender-typed tasks”. Journal of applied psychology (0021-9010), 89 (3), p. 416.
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[11] Grutter v Bollinger 2003: accessed 18.03.09: http://www.enfacto.com/case/U.S./539/306/
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[12] General Assembly Resolution 2106 (XX) of 21 December 1965, Article 1 ( 4). A. H. E. Morawa, “The Concept of Non-Discrimination: An Introductory Comment”, Journal of Ethnic and Minority Issues in Europe, 3, 2002, p. 9.
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[13] Text of California Proposition 2009: http://vote96.sos.ca.gov/BP/209text.htm
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[14] In addition, the point at which disadvantaged groups are over represented would lead to a backlash.
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[15] Morowa, p. 11.
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[16] Ibid, p. 10.
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[17] Modood, p. 77.
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[18] Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom: accessed 18.03.09: http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/charter/
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[19] Grutter v Bollinger 2003: accessed 18.03.09: http://www.enfacto.com/case/U.S./539/306/
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[20] Professor Jackson-Preece: “Irish Rise in America.” EU458: Seminar 15.03.09