Robert Guest: The Borderless Economics
The Economist has produced this stunning breakdown of the Republican presidential race. The facts on the operationalised side of the campaigns shows a slightly different picture from the polling data. Fundraising is a market based method of ascribing value to a given campaign and candidate. Those who donate are looking to back the right horse, and gain influence. Such a show of support is far more serious than a one-off vote. Mitt Romney is leading in every metric, and he will likely be the nominee. A fragmented Republican Party is only good news for Obama. Politics is often about voting against someone rather than voting for an alternative. In 2012, Obama will be re-elected easily given this field of candidates. See The Economist Article here.
Obama versus the fragmented GOP: While there is ample evidence that Obama repeatedly misplayed his cards for broad-based support, best exemplified by Obamacare, it is also evident that the Republicans have been intransigent throughout the first 3 years of Obama’s presidency. Regardless, the likelihood of Obama being re-elected, despite his poor performance on key issues, and his failure to meet high expectations is becoming more and more apparent because the alternatives are dire. Romney is obviously the most credible candidate thus far, but his liabilities are immense which explains the GOP’s “Anybody-but-Romney” rollercoaster ride. An ‘anybody but’ campaign is devastating for Romney. Among other consequences of a Romney ticket is that the far right will stay home in 2012. We should be skeptical of any empirical data 1 year ahead of elections but even if Obama’s approval are as low as Nixon’s in 1971, Obama’s chances are promising for a second term.