Category Archives: Science

Warren Buffet’s Life Advice Revised

Making Decisions On Things You Understand:

Think very hard about the decisions you make, you only need to swing at the pitches that you know you understand.

Build A Model For Understanding the World:

What is it about your model of the world that is wrong? Understand how you understand the world.

Reading is the Gateway to Better Insights:

Read all the time. Learn all the time. You can take courses online. The information is out there. Exercise your brain by reading before bed. Ideally, spend at least 4 to 5 hours per day reading.

Salacious Stories Sell More, Unfortunately for the Reasonable:

Some of the sentiments about viruses are more salacious and therefore the press runs with those stories because of $ad revenue and traffic benefits to their websites.

Don’t Fear Failure:

You can still go forward.

Look for a Job You Would Take if You Didn’t Need a Job:

Life’s too short to take a job that you won’t be passionate about. We will solve cancer, obesity and climate change: Science is a big problem solver, these are the areas that we are going to solve.

Keynes Essays on Persuasion:

Keynes theorized that output would be 4x what it was in the 1930s. The distribution is a problem. But you free up people with the possibility to do other things when new technology distributes old processes. The people that fall behind on the weigh-side do need help for sure. There is a macro picture that is a total opportunity.

Universal Basic Income and the Policy Experiments of the Future

What if you were given a stipend from the government in order to live comfortably and chase that dream of becoming an ice sculptor or writing the next best seller? Would you sit toiling away at your desk? Or why not watch Jeopardy? Is it possible that different people react differently to the same opportunity?Introducing the universal basic income experiment.

Thomas Paine is the first dude to propose the concept in the modernish era. Ever since Thomas Paine argued that free citizens should have the “power to say no” to bad job opportunities, other academics and policy makers have floated a basic income. Typically, the trigger for advocating for a universal basic income (Ubi) is an economic downturn or perceived adverse pattern relating to human productivity. <Perceived based on predictions about Artificial Intelligence…which in reality are hard to map against the economic benefits of increased productivity that AI is likely to create (predicting the future is kind of difficult). Curiously, there have been advocates on the left as well as the right politically for a UBI. The latest threat to human labour has been Artificial Intelligence and/or automation. Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman is suggesting that “[AI]’s going to be okay” in his latest “Thank You for Being Late“.

Background from the 20th Century

In the early 1970s, Nixon looked into UBI; $1,000 gave the means by which citizens can help themselves. 8,500 Americans were tested under the Nixon administration; people started analyzing the results. The results were mixed: it appeared that many were just enjoying this income. Increased separation and divorce rates was a bi-product so the program was shutdown. The initial plan was that they wanted to do two US states. Start small, expand slowly, let the experiment play out.

The US also has a corporate Benefits Package Idea as well. Happiness and well-being = increased productivity. Trying to figure it out in the corporate world has been an ongoing discussion.

Design Policies in the Way that Your Design Services & Objects

Basic Income is something that has been tested in Nordic welfare states, too.

DemosHelsinki is an organization that asks the critical question, do we employ design thinking for the government? First you have a challenge that needs to be developed. Test: try those ideas, get feedback, and then cycle and make revisions on the design in real time. Legislation by Design: design policies in the design thinking process. Finland increasingly wants to take prototypes of laws that are dynamically derived. You need to make sure that your laws have to treat people equally: the people in the experiments are variables….the special law needs to accommodate experimentation in the Finnish laws according to the DemosHelsinki team. The welfare office: the Basic Income experiment. Google “KELA social insurance” to learn more.

How To Figure Out if UBI is Workable In Any Case: Test Run this Policy!

Select 2000 people 560 euros, not students. Participants did not volunteer. Give half these folks a Basic Income. A/B test like an advertiser would. Within 2 years that the experiment is complete. In this model, participants can take a part-time job if I wasn’t part of the basic income. $175K in the profile to compare these two groups of people. How are these people behaving? There is also a few UBI tests in Ontario which is an ambitious plan to see if this policy could have legs generally…. Any partisan that has a problem with the scientific method is probably not qualified to serve, let’s see the results, people!

Counter-Arguments Against and For Universal Basic Income

There are a lot of people thinking it is not a good idea in Finland. The problem is the social security system. Not everyone wants a flat income. What if you have children with special needs? The basic isn’t enough. And of course, the larger challenge is How much would it cost in terms of redistributing government revenue? It’s a systematic shift; it would change the economy. It might save money however….meanwhile, the upfront is expensive to fund and politicians are replaced regularly so there are those factors….further research required. (Further Research Required = Fr-squared!)

  • Would Basic Income improve general productivity?
  • You might dis-incentivize people from working hard. Is pain a motivator for innovation?
  • You might lead to people taking on low value jobs to cover the remaining..?
  • You might have the next global best seller come out of the participating group…?
  • How does Ubi effect the relationship between T and G? Where T = tax revenue and G = government spending.
  • Who would pay for Ubi realistically? Corporations? Governments?
  • What are the least obvious consequences of implementing a $20K Ubi in Canada and the US, Europe, UK? i.e. Would there be more X and less Y?
  • Why might Ubi be appealing to right and left-wing advocates?
  • Is Ubi more or less feasible in Kenya or other developing markets?
  • What are three possible contingencies relating to unemployment rate and productivity if Ubi were to be implemented in Western countries?

The Scientific Method in Political Science

The Scientific Method in Political Science

These notes are a combination of notes from Matt A and Estelle H. Enjoy.

Topic One: What is the scientific method?

  • Overview
  • Science as a body of knowledge versus science as a method of obtaining knowledge
  • The defining characteristics of the scientific method
  • The scientific method and common sense

The nature of scientific knowledge claims

Four Characteristics of the Scientific Method:

What are the hallmarks of the scientific method?

Empiricism: require systematic observation in order to verify conclusions, tested against our experience

Intersubjectivity  require systematic observation in order to verify conclusions, tested against our experience

  • Explanation: the goal of the scientific method. Generalized understanding by discovering patterns of internal relationships among phenomena. How variations are related.
  • Determinism: a working assumption of scientific method. Assumption that behaviour has causes, recurring regularities & patterns. Causal influence. Must recognize that this assumption is not always warranted.
  • Empiricism requires that every knowledge claim be based upon systematic observation.

Assumptions:

Our senses (what we can actually see, touch, hear…) can give us the most accurate and reliable information about what is happening around us. Info gained through senses is the best way to guard against subjective bias, distortion.

Obtaining information systematically through our senses helps to guard against bias.

What is ‘Intersubjectivity’ and why is it so important?

Empiricism is no guarantee of objectivity.

It is safer to work on the assumption that complete objectivity is impossible. Because we are humans studying human behaviour, therefore values may influence research.

Intersubjectivity provides the essential safeguard against bias by requiring that our knowledge claims be:

  • Transmissible
  • The steps followed to arrive at our conclusions must be spelled out in sufficient detail that another researcher could repeat our research. Public, detailed
  • Replicable
  • If that researcher does repeat our research, she will come up with similar results.

In practice, research is rarely duplicated: funding, professional incentives (tenure, difficult to publish)

Transmissibility and replicability enable others to evaluate our research and to determine whether our value commitments and preconceptions have affected our conclusions.

Explanation

The goal of the scientific method is explanation.A political phenomenon is explained by showing how it is related to something else

If we wanted to explain why some regimes are less stable than others, we might relate variation in political instability to variation in economic circumstances: 

  • The higher the rate of inflation, the greater the political instability.

If we wanted to explain why some citizens are more involved in politics than others, we might relate variation in political involvement to variation in citizens’ material circumstances:

  • The more affluent citizens are, the more politically involved they will be.

Empirical research involves a search for recurring patterns in the way that phenomena are related to one another.

The aim is to generalize beyond a particular act or time or place—to see the particular as an example of some more general tendency.

Determinism

The search for these recurring regularities necessarily entails the assumption of determinism i.e. the assumption that there are recurring regularities in political behaviour.

Determinism is only an assumption. It cannot be ‘proved’.

The assumption of determinism is valid to the extent that research proceeding from this assumption produces knowledge claims that withstand rigorous empirical testing.

The scientific method versus common sense

In a sense, the scientific method is simply a more sophisticated version of the way we go about making sense of the world around us (systematic, conscious, planned, delibareate)

—except:

  • In every day life, we often observe accurately—BUT users of the scientific method make systematic observations and establish criteria of relevance in advance. Using the scientific method.
  • We sometimes jump to conclusions on the basis of a handful of observations—BUT users of the scientific method avoid over-generalizing (premature generalization) by committing themselves in advance to a certain number of observations.
  • Once we’ve reached a conclusion, we tend to overlook contradictory evidence—BUT users of the scientific method avoid such selective observation by testing for plausible alternative interpretations. Commit themselves in advance to do so.
  • When confronted with contradictory evidence, we tend to explain it away by making some additional assumptions—so do users of the scientific method BUT they make further observations in order to test the revised explanation. Can modify theory, provided new observations are gathered for the modified hypothesis.

 

The nature of scientific knowledge claims

Knowledge claims based on the scientific method are never regarded as ‘true’ or ‘proven’, no matter how many times they have been tested.

To be considered ‘scientific’, a knowledge claim must be testable—and if it is testable, it must always be considered potentially falsifiable.

We can never test all the possible empirical implications of our knowledge claims. It is always possible that one day another researcher will turn up disconfirming evidence.

Topic 2: Concept Formation

Overview:

  • Role of Concepts in the Scientific Method
  • What are Concepts?
  • Nominal vs. Operational Definitions
  • Four Requirements of a Nominal Definition
  • Classification, Comparison and Quantification

Criteria for Evaluating Concepts

 

Role of concepts in the scientific method

Concept formation is the first step toward treating phenomena, not as unique and specific, but as instances of a more general class of phenomena. Starting point of scientific study. To describe it, create a concept.

-w/out concepts, no amount of description will lead to explanation

-seeing specific as an instance of something more general

 

Concepts serve two key functions:

  • tools for data-gathering (‘data containers’): concept is basically a descriptive word. Refers to something that is observable (directly or indirectly). Can specify attributes that indicate the presence of a concept like power.
  • essential building-blocks of theories: a set of interrelated propositions. Propositions tie concepts together by showing how they’re related.

 

What are Concepts? (Part 1)

  • A concept is a universal descriptive word that refers directly or indirectly to something that is observable. (descriptive words can be universal or particular: we’re interested in universal words that refer to classes on phenomena). Empirical research is concerned with particular and specific, but only as they are seen as examples of something else.

 

  • Universal versus particular descriptive words:
  • Universal descriptive words refer to a class of phenomena.
  • Particular descriptive words refer to a particular instance of that class. Collection of particulars (data) tells us nothing unless we have a way of sorting it.
  • Conceptualization enables us to see the particular as an example of something more general.
  • Conceptualization involves a process of generalization and abstraction. It is a creative act. Often begins with perception that seemingly disparate phenomena have something in common.

-involves replacing proper names (people, places) with concepts. Can then draw on a broader array of existing theory, research that would be more interesting.

  • Generalization—in classifying phenomena according to the properties that they have in common, we are necessarily ignoring those properties that are not shared. Too many exceptions, look for similarities in exceptions that might show problem with theory.

-form concept -> generalize. But generalizing means losing detail. Tradeoff btwn generality & how many exceptions can be tolerated before theory is invalidated.

 

  • Abstraction—a concept is an abstraction that represents a class of phenomena by labeling them. Concepts do not actually exist—they are simply labels.

-abstract concepts grasp a generic similarity(like trees)

-a concept allows us to delineate aspects that are relevant to our research. A concept is an abstraction that represents a certain phenomenon: implies that concepts do not exist, and are only labels that we attach to the phenomenon. Are defined, given meaning.

-definition starts with a word (democracy, political culture)

 

Real definitions: don’t enter directly into empirical research

 

Nominal vs. Operational Definitions

  • Every concept must be given both a nominal definition and an operational definition.

 

  • A nominal definition describes the properties of the phenomenon that the concept is supposed to represent. Literally “names,” attributes

 

  • An operational definition identifies the specific indicators that will be used to represent the concept empirically. Indicate the extent of the presence of the concept. Literally spells out procedures/operations you have to perform to represent the concept empirically.

*When reading research, look to see how concepts are represented, look for flaws.

  • The nominal definition provides a basic standard against which to judge the operational definition—do the chosen indicators really correspond to the target concept?

 

  • A nominal definition is neither true nor false (though it may be more or less useful).

-very little agreement in poli sci on meaning & measurement. No need to define concept like age, but necessary for racism.

 

Four requirements of a nominal definition:

 

  1. Clarity—concepts must be clearly defined, otherwise intersubjectivity will be compromised. Explicit definition.
  2. Precision—concepts must be defined precisely—if concepts are to serve as ‘data containers’, it must be clear what is to be included (and what can be excluded). Nothing vague should denote distinctive characteristics/policies of what is being defined. Provides criteria of relevance when it comes to setting up operational definition.
  3. Non-circular—a definition should not be circular or tautologous e.g. defining ‘dependency’ as ‘a lack of autonomy’.

 

  1. Positive—the definition should state what properties the concept represents, not what properties it lacks (because it will lack many properties, besides the ones mentioned as lacking in the definition).

 

Classification, Comparison and Quantification

Concepts are used to describe political phenomena.

Concepts can provide a basis for:

 

  • Classification—sorting political phenomena into classes or categories. Taking concepts and sorting into different categories. e.g. types of regimes. At the heart of all science.

-1. Exhaustive: every member of the population must fit into a category.

-2. Mutually exclusive: any case should fit into one category and one only.

Concepts can provide a basis for:

  • Comparison—ordering phenomena according to whether they represent more—or less—of the property e.g. political stability. How much.
  • Quantification—measuring how much of the property is present e.g. turnout to vote. Allows us to compare and to say how much more or less. Anything that can be counted allows for a quantitative concept. (few interesting quantitative concepts in empirical research)

 

Criteria for evaluating concepts:

How? Criteria correspond to functions (data containers and building blocks)

1 Empirical Import—it must be possible to link concepts to observable properties (otherwise concepts cannot serve as ‘data containers’). However, concepts do not all need a directly observable counterpart.

 

Concepts can be linked to observables in 3 ways:

 

  • directly—if the concept has a directly observable counterpart e.g. the Australian ballot. Directly observable concepts are rare in political science.
  • indirectly via an operational definition—we cannot observe ‘power’ directly, but we can observe behaviours that indicate the exercise of power. Infer presence from things that are observable (power, ideology)
  • Via their relationship within a theory to concepts that are directly or indirectly observable.g. marginal utility. Such ‘theoretical concepts’ are rare in political science.

Gain empirical import b/c of relation to other part of theory.

2 Systematic (or theoretical) Import

—it must be possible to relate concepts to other concepts (otherwise concepts cannot serve as the ‘building blocks’ of theories).

Goal is explanation. Want to construct concepts while thinking of how they might be related to other concepts.

Topic Three—Theories

 

  • Overview
  • What is a theory?
  • Inductive versus deductive model of theory-building
  • Five criteria for evaluating competing theories
  • Three functions of theories

 

What is a theory?

Goal = explanation. Generalize beyond the particular, see it as a part of a pattern. Treating particular as example of something more general

-explanation: step 1 form concepts: identify a property that is shared in common. Step 2 form theories: tie concepts together by stating relationships btwn them

  • Normative theory versus empirical theory
  • Theories tie concepts together by stating relationships between them. These statements are called ‘propositions’ if they have been derived deductively and ‘empirical generalizations’ if they have been arrived at inductively.
  • A theory consists of a set of propositions (or empirical generalizations) that are all logically related to one another. Explain something by showing how it is related to something else.
  • A theory explains political phenomena by showing that they are logically implied by the propositions (or empirical generalizations) that constitute the theory. Theory takes a common set of occurrences & try to define pattern. Once pattern is identified, different occurrences can be treated as though just repeated occurrences of the same pattern. Simplify.

-tradeoff btwn how far we simplify and having a useful theory.

-skeptical mindset, try to falsify theories.

 

Inductive versus deductive model of theory-building

Inductive model—starts with a set of observations and searches for recurring regularities in the way that phenomena are related to one another.

Deductive model—starts with a set of axioms and uses logic to derive propositions about how and why phenomena are related to one another.

 

Deductive theory-building

Deductive theory-building is a process of moving from abstract statements about general relationships to concrete statements about specific behaviours.

-theory. Data enters into the process at the end. Develop theory first, then collect data.

-begins with a set of axioms, want them to be defensible.

-from axioms, reason through a set of propositions all logically implied by the same set of assumptions

-proposition asserts relationship btwn 2 concepts

-theory helps us to understand phenomena by showing that it is logically implied. Tells us how phenomena are related and that they are actually related.

-problem: logic is not enough -> need empirical verification.

-theories provide a logical base for expectations, predictions

-design research, choose tools, collect data. See if predictions hold. If so, theory somewhat validated.

-expectations stated in the form of hypotheses (as many as possible)

-a hypothesis states a relationship btwn variables

-variable is an empirical counterpart of a concept, closer to the world of observation, specific.

-any one test is likely to be flawed.

-deductive theory-building is more efficient, asking less of the data.

 

Inductive Theory-Building

-data

-statistical analysis, try to discover patterns. Data first then use it to develop theory.

-being with a set of observations, discern pattern, and assume that this pattern will hold more generally

-relying implicitly on assumption of determinism

-end up with empirical generalization, which is a statement of relationship that has been established by repeated systematic observation

-ex) regime destabilized when inflation increased. Collect data on other countries. If it holds, then have empirical generalization

-inductive theory ties several empirical generalizations together

-no logical basis, therefore more vulnerable to few disconfirming instances

-less efficient, more complicated questions

 

-what is proper interplay btwn theory and research? In practice, it is a blend of induction and deduction.

Generalization: always have to test theory using observations other than those use in creating it. If data does not support theory, can go back & modify it. Provided you then go out & collect new data about modified theory.

 

Five criteria for evaluating competing theories

 

 –Simplicity (or parsimony) — a simple theory has a higher degree of falsifiability because there are fewer restrictions on the conditions under which it is expected to hold. As few explanatory factors as possible. Why? Less generalizable harder to falsify when more complex.

Internal consistency (logical soundness) — it should not be possible to derive contradictory implications from the same theory.

 –Testability — we should be able to derive expectations about reality that are concrete and specific enough for us to be able to make observations and determine whether the expectations are supported. Allows us to derive expectations about which we can make observations and see if theory holds. Concrete and specific enough.

 –Predictive accuracy — the expectations derived from the theory should be confirmed. Never consider a theory to be true. Instead, is it useful? Does it have predictive accuracy?

 –Generality — the theory should allow us to explain a variety of political phenomena across time and space. Explains a wide variety of events/behaviours in a variety of different places. Holds as widely as possible.

 

Why is there inevitably tension among these five criteria?

-different criteria can come into conflict (more generality means less predictive accuracy, more predictive accuracy is less parsimonious)

-always going to be a tradeoff: ability to explain specific cases will tradeoff with ability to explain generally. (forests vs individual trees)

-in practice, you are pragmatic. Do what makes theory more useful.

-very rare to meet all criteria in poli sci

 

Three functions of theories (2nd way to evaluate)

-how well they perform functions they are meant to perform

Explanation — our theory should be able to explain political phenomena by showing how and why they are related to other phenomena. Part of some larger pattern, explain why phenomena that interest us vary.

 

Organization of knowledge — our theory should be able to explain phenomena that cannot be explained by existing generalizations and show that those generalizations are all logically implied by our theory. Explain things that other theories cannot. Should be possible to show that existing generalizations are related to theory/one another.

 

Derivation of new hypotheses (the ‘heuristic function’) — our theory should enable us to predict phenomena beyond those that motivated the creation of the theory.

Suggest new knowledge/generate new hypotheses. Abstract propositions should enable us to generate lots of interesting hypotheses (beyond those that motivate the study)

Topic 4: Hypotheses and Variables

OVERVIEW

  • What is a variable?
  • Variables versus concepts
  • What is a hypothesis?
  • Independent vs. dependent variables
  • Formulating hypotheses
  • Common errors in formulating hypotheses
  • Why are hypotheses so important?

 

 

What is a Variable?

 

  • Concepts are abstractions that represent empirical phenomena. In order to move from the conceptual-theoretical level to the empirical-observational level, we have to find variables that correspond to our abstract concepts. Highly abstract. Need empirical counter part -> variables

-empirical research always functions at 2 lvls: conceptual/theoretical and empirical/observation. Hardest part is moving from 1 to 2. Must minimize loss of meaning.

  • A variable is a concept’s empirical counterpart.

 

  • Any property that varies (i.e. takes on different values) can potentially be a variable.

 

  • Variables are empirically observable properties that take on different values. Some variables have many possible values (e.g. income). Other variables have only two ‘values’ (e.g. sex).

-require more specificity than concepts. Enable us to take statement w/abstract concepts & translate into corresponding statement w/precise empirical reference.

-one concept may be represented by several different variables. This is desirable.

 

Variables vs. Concepts

 

Variables require more specificity than concepts.

One concept may be represented by several different variables.

 

What is a Hypothesis?

In order to test our theories, we have to convert our propositions into hypotheses.

A hypothesis is a conjectural statement of the relationship between two variables.

A hypothesis is logically implied by a proposition. It is more specific than a proposition and has clearer implications for testing. What we expect to observe when we make properly organized observations. Always in the form of a declarative statement. Always states relationships btwn variables.

 

Independent vs. Dependent Variables

 

Variables are classified according to the role that they play in our hypotheses

 

The dependent variable is the phenomenon that we want to explain.

 

The independent variable is the factor that is presumed to explain the dependent variable. Explanatory factor that we believe will explain variation in DV.

 

The dependent variable is ‘dependent’ because its values depend on the values taken by the independent variable

 

The independent variable is ‘independent’ because its values are independent of any other variable included in our hypothesis

 

Another way to think of the distinction is in terms of the antecedent (i.e. the independent variable) and the consequent (i.e. the dependent variable).

 

We predict from the independent variable to the dependent variable.

-the same variable can be dependent in one theory and independent in another.

 

Formulating Hypotheses I

 

Hypotheses can be arrived at either inductively (by examining a set of data for patterns) or deductively (by reasoning logically from a proposition). Which method we use depends on whether we are conducting exploratory research or explanatory research.

 

Hypotheses arrived at inductively are less powerful because they do not provide a logical basis for the hypothesized relationship (post hoc rationalization is no substitute for a priori theorizing).

 

Hypotheses can be stated in a variety of ways provided that (1) they state a relationship between two variables (2) they specify how the variables are related and (3) they carry clear implications for testing.

 

Like the concepts they represent, variables can classify, compare or quantify. This affects the way the hypothesis will be stated.

 

Formulating Hypotheses II

 

-When both variables are comparative or quantitative, state how the values of the DV (dependent variable) change when the IV (independent variable) changes:

-When the IV is comparative or quantitative and the DV is categorical, state which category of the DV is most likely to occur when the IV changes:

-When the IV is categorical and the DV is comparative or quantitative, state which category of the IV will result in more of the DV:

-When both the IV and the DV are categorical, state which category of the DV is most likely to occur with which category of the IV:

Common Errors in Formulating Hypotheses

Canadians tend not to trust their government.

Error #1–The statement contains only one variable. To be a hypothesis, it must be related to another variable. Not general.

To make this into a hypothesis, ask yourself whether you want to explain why some people are less trusting than others (DV) or whether you want to predict the consequences of lower trust (IV):

The younger voters are, the less likely they are to trust the government. (DV)

The less people trust the government (IV), the less likely they are to participate in politics.

 

 

Turnout to vote is related to age

Error #2 The statement fails to specify how the two variables are related—are younger people more likely to vote or less likely to vote?

The older people are, the more likely they are to vote.

 

Public sector workers are more likely to vote for social democratic parties.

Error #3 The hypothesis is incompletely specified (we don’t know with whom public sector workers are being compared). When the IV is categorical, the reference categories must always be made explicit.

 

Public sector workers are more likely to vote for social democratic parties than for neo-conservative parties.

Error #4 The hypothesis is improperly specified. This is the most common error in stating hypotheses. The comparison must always be made in terms of categories of the IV, not the DV. This is very important for hypothesis testing.

The hypothesis should state:

Public sector workers are more likely to vote for social democratic parties than private sector workers or the self-employed.

 

 

The turnout to vote should be higher among young Canadians

Error #5 This is simply a normative statement. Hypotheses must never contain words like ‘should’, ‘ought’ or ‘better than’ because value statements cannot be tested empirically.

This does not mean that empirical research is not concerned with value questions.

 

To turn a value question into a testable hypothesis, you could focus on factors that encourage a higher turnout or you could focus on the possible consequences of low turnout:

The higher the turnout to vote, the more responsive the government will be.

 

 

Mexico has a more stable government than Nicaragua.

Error #6 The hypothesis contains proper names. A statement that contains proper names (i.e. names of countries, names of political actors, names of political parties, etc.) cannot be a hypothesis because its scope is limited to the named entities.

To make this into a hypothesis, you must replace the proper names with a variable. Ask yourself: why does Mexico have a more stable government?

The higher the level of economic development, the more stable a government will be.

 

 

The more politically involved people are, the more likely they are to participate in politics.

Error #7 The hypothesis is true by definition because the two variables are simply different names for the same property (i.e. it is a tautology)

Decide whether you want to explain variations in political participation (DV) or to predict the consequences of variations in political participation (IV).

The more involved people are in voluntary organizations, the more likely they are to participate in politics.

 

*Importance of nominal definition: could be non-circular if meant emotional involvement & behavioural expectations.

 

Why are Hypotheses so Important?

 

  • Hypotheses provide the indispensable bridge between theory and observation by incorporating the theory in near-testable form.

 

  • Hypotheses are essentially predictions of the form, if A, then B, that we set up to test the relationship between A and B.

 

  • Hypotheses enable us to derive specific empirical expectations (‘working hypotheses’) that can be tested against reality. Because they are logically implied by a proposition, they enable us to assess whether the proposition holds.

 

  • Hypotheses direct investigation. Without hypotheses, we would not know what to observe. To be useful, observations must be for or against any POV.
  • Hypotheses provide an a priori rationale for relationships. If we have hypothesized that A and B are related, we can have much more confidence in the observed relationship than if we had just happened upon it.
  • Hypotheses may be affected by the researcher’s own values and predispositions, but they can be tested, and confirmed or disconfirmed, independently of any normative concerns that may have motivated them.
  • Even when hypotheses are disconfirmed, they are useful since they may suggest more fruitful lines for future inquiry—and without hypotheses, we cannot tell positive from negative evidence.

 

-successful hypothesis: do variables covary?

Test for other variables that might eliminate relationship. Control variables. Think about control on data collection stage.

Topic 5: Control Variables

OVERVIEW

 

  • What are control variables?

 

  • Sources of spuriousness

 

  • Intervening variables
  • Conditional variables

 

What are control variables?

 

Testing a hypothesis involves showing that the IV and the DV vary together (‘covary’) in a consistent, patterned way e.g. showing that people who have higher levels of education do tend to have higher levels of political interest.

 

It is never enough to demonstrate an empirical association between the IV and the DV. Must always go on to look at other variables that might plausibly alter or even eliminate the observed relationship.

 

Control variables are variables whose effects are held constant (literally, ‘controlled for’) while we examine the relationship between the IV and the DV.

 

Sources of Spuriousness 

The mere fact that two variables are empirically associated does not mean that there is necessarily any causal connection between them

Think: pollution and literacy rates, number of firefighters and amount of fire damage, migration of storks and the birth rate in Sweden…

These are all (silly!) examples of spurious relationships. In each case, the observed relationship can be explained by the fact that the variables share a common cause

 

A source of spuriousness variable is a variable that causes both the IV and the DV. Remove the common cause and the observed relationship between the IV and the DV will weaken or disappear. If you overlook SS, you risk research being completely wrong.

 

To identify a potential (SS) source of spuriousness, ask yourself (1) whether there is any variable that might be a cause of both the IV and the DV and (2) whether that variable acts directly on the DV as well as on the IV.

 

If the variable only acts directly on the IV, it is not a potential source of spuriousness. It is simply an antecedent. An antecedent is not a control variable.

 

Sources of Spuriousness II

  • To identify a potential (SS) source of spuriousness, ask yourself (1) whether these is any variable that might be a cause of both the IV and the DV and (2) whether that variable acts directly on the DV as well as on the IV.
  • If the variable only acts directly on the IV, it is not a potential source of spuriousness. It is simply an antecedent. An antecedent is not a control variables.

SS à IV à DV

  • Examples; The higher people’s income, the great their interest in politics.
  • BUT it could be spurious: education could be a source of spuriousness:

Income à                               Interest in Politics

Education (spuriousness)

Education à                           Support for Feminism

Generation (spuriousness)

  • Some variables won’t have a spurious independent variable: ethnicity religion.

 

 

Intervening Variables I

 

Once we have eliminated potential sources of spuriousness, we must test for plausible intervening variables

 

Intervening variables are variables that mediate the relationship between the IV and the DV. An intervening variable provides an explanation of why the IV affects the DV

 

The intervening variable corresponds to the assumed causal mechanism. The DV is related to the IV because the IV affects the intervening variable and the intervening variable, in turn, affects the DV.

IV-> Intervening->DV

To identify plausible intervening variables, ask yourself why you think the IV would have a causal impact on the DV.

-can be more than one potential rationale. Intervening variable validates causal thinking.

 

Intervening Variables II:

  • To identify plausible intervening variables, ask yourself why you thinking the IV would have a causal impact on the DV.
  • Examples:
  • Women are more likely than men to favour an increase in social spending.
  • GENDER à RELIANCE ON THE WELFARE STATE à FAVOUR INCREASE IN SOCIAL SPENDING
  • The lower people’s income the more politically alienated they will be.
  • PERSONAL INCOME à PERCEPTION OF SYSTEM RESPONSIVENESS à Political ALIENATION

 

Conditional variables I.

-trickiest and most common. What will happen to relation btwn IV and DV?

Once we have eliminated plausible sources of spuriousness and verified the assumed causal mechanism, we need to specify the conditions under which the hypothesized relationship holds.

 

Ideally, we want there to be as few conditions as possible because the aim is to come up with a generalization.

 

Conditional variables are variables that literally condition the relationship between the IV and the DV by affecting:

(1) the strength of the relationship between the IV and the DV (i.e. how well do values of the IV predict values of the DV?) and

(2) the form of the relationship between the IV and the DV (i.e. which values of the DV tend to be associated with which values of the IV?)

-focus is always on its effect on hypothesize relation btwn IV and DV (in every category of the conditional variable.  Ex) category = religion. Christian, Muslim, Atheist. Or important, not important, somewhat)

 

To identify plausible (CV) conditional variables, ask yourself whether there are some sorts of people who are likely to take a particular value on the DV regardless of their value on the IV.

Note: the focus is always on how the hypothesized relationship is affected by different values of the conditional variable.

 

There are basically three types of variables that typically condition relationships:

(1) variables that specify the relationship in terms of interest, knowledge or concern. Example (interest, knowledge or concern):

Catholics are more likely to oppose abortion than Protestants.

If CV = attends church then: religious affiliation -> support for abortion.

If CV = not attend, then religious affiliation -> does not support

(2) variables that specify the relationship in terms of place or time. (where are they from?) Example (place or time):

The higher people’s incomes, the more likely they are to participate in politics

If CV = non-rural resident, then income -> political participation

If CV = rural resident then income does not -> political participation

(3) variables that specify the relationship in terms of social background characteristics.

Examples (Social Background Characteristics):

The more religious people are, the more likely they are to oppose abortion.

If CV = male then religiosity -> views on abortion

If CV = female then religiosity does not -> abortion

 

Stages in Data Analysis:

Test hypothesis –> Test for Spuriousness –> If non-spurious, test for intervening variables –> test for conditional variables.

 

Topic 6: Research Problems and the Research Process

OVERVIEW

 

  • What is a research problem?
  • Maximizing generality
  • Why is generality important?
  • Overview of the research process
  • Stages in data analysis

 

 

What is a research problem?

 

A properly formulated research problem should take the form of a question: how is concept A related to concept B?

Examples:

 

How is income inequality related to regime type?

 

How is moral traditionalism related to gender?

 

How is civic engagement related to social networks?

Maximizing Generality

 

Aim for an abstract and comprehensive formulation rather than a narrow and specific one.

 

Example: you want to explain support for the Parti-Québécois.

A possible formulation of the research problem:

 

How is concern for the future of the French language related to support for the PQ?

A better formulation of the research problem:

 

How is cultural insecurity related to support for nationalist movements?

Why is Generality Important?

 

  • Goal of the empirical method is to come up with a generalization.

 

  • Greater contribution because findings will have implications beyond the particular puzzle that motivated the research.

 

Access to a more diverse theoretical and empirical literature in developing a tentative answer to the research question.

 

The Research Process

Find a puzzle of anomally –> Formulate the research problem. How is A related to B? –> Develop hypothesis explaining how and why A and B are related –> Identify plausible sources of spuriousness, intervening variables and conditional variables. –> Choose indicators to represent the IV, DV and control variables (‘operationalization’) –> Collect and analyze the data.

 

Stages in Data Analysis:

Test hypothesis –> Test for Spuriousness –> If non-spurious, test for intervening variables –> test for conditional variables.

Topic 7: From concepts to indicators

Overview:

 

  • What is ‘operationalization’?

 

  • What are indicators?

 

  • Converting a proposition into a testable form

 

  • Key properties of an operational definition

 

An example: operationalizing ‘socio-economic status’

What is Operationalization?

 

Operationalization is the process of selecting observable phenomena to represent abstract concepts.

When we operationalize a concept we literally specify the operations that have to be performed in order to establish which category of the concept is present (classificatory concepts) or the extent to which the concept is present (comparative or quantitative concepts).

 

The end product of this process is the specification of a set of indicators.

What are indicators?

Indicators are observable properties that indicate which category of the concept is present or the extent to which the concept is present.

 

In order to test our theory, we examine whether our indicators are related in the way that our theory would predict.

 

The predicted relationship is stated in the form of a working hypothesis.

 

The working hypothesis is logically implied by one of the propositions that make up our theory. Because it is logically implied by the proposition, evidence about the validity of the working hypothesis can be taken as evidence about the validity of the proposition.

 

Converting a Proposition into a Testable Form I

Concept -> proposition -> concept

Variable -> hypothesis -> variable

Indicator -> working hypothesis -> indicator

 

 

 

Converting a Proposition into a Testable Form I

 

Just as it is possible to represent one concept by several different variables, so it is possible—and desirable—to represent one variable by several different indicators.

Concept: variable (2 or more): Indicator (2 or more each).

 

Key Properties of an Operational Definition

 

The operational definition specifies the indicators by setting out the procedures that have to be followed in order to represent the concept empirically.

 

A properly framed operational definition:

-adds precision to concepts

-makes propositions publicly testable

 

This ensures that our knowledge claims are transmissible and makes replication possible.

An Example: Operationalizing ‘Socio-Economic Status’

 

The first step in representing a concept empirically is to provide a nominal definition that sets out clearly and precisely what you mean by your concept:

 

Socio-Economic Status: ‘a person’s relative location in a hierarchy of material advantage’.

Socio economic status: 1. Income -> earnings from employment, annual household income

  1. wealth: value of assets, home ownership

Topic Eight: Questionnaire Design and Interviewing

Overview:

 

-The function of a questionnaire

-The importance of pilot work and pre-testing

-Open-ended versus close-ended questions

-Advantages and disadvantages of close-ended questions

-Advantages and disadvantages of open-ended questions

-Ordering the questions

-Common errors in question wording

-A checklist for identifying problems in the pre-test

 

important to know what makes good survey research

-simply a formal way of asking people questions: attitude, beliefs, background, opinions

-follows a highly standardized structured, thought out sequence

 

The Function of a Questionnaire

-The function of a questionnaire is to enable us to represent our variables empirically.

-Respondents’ coded responses to our questions serve as our indicators.

-The first step in designing a questionnaire is to identify all of the variables that we want to represent (i.e. independent variables, dependent variables, control variables).

Do not pose hypothesis directly. One question cannot operationalize two variables.

-We must always keep in mind why we are asking a given question and what we propose to do with the answers.

-A question should never pose a hypothesis directly. We test our hypotheses by examining whether people’s answers to different questions go together in the way that our hypotheses predicted.

 

The Importance of Pilot Work

Second step: pilot work

Careful pilot work is essential in designing a good questionnaire. Background work to prepare surveys.

 

Pilot work can involve:

-lengthy unstructured interviews with people typical of those we want to study

-talks with key informants

-reading widely about the topic in newspapers, magazines and on-line in order to get a sense of the range of opinion.

 

The Importance of Pre-testing

Third step: draft a questionnaire

Fourth step: pretest questionnaire

Once a questionnaire has been drafted, it should be pre-tested using respondents who are as similar as possible to those we plan to survey

-ideally, people you test are typical of group you want to represent.

-purposif/judgmental sampling: use knowledge of population to choose subjects

-pretest very important & often humbling

Pre-testing can help with:

  • identifying flawed questions
  • improving question wording
  • ordering questions
  • determining the length of time it takes to answer the questionnaire or interview the respondents
  • assessing whether responses are affected by characteristics of the interviewer
  • improving the wording of the survey introduction (who am I, what I’m doing, why I’m doing it. Doesn’t say what hypotheses are.)

 

 

 

 

Open-Ended versus Close-Ended Questions

 

Surveys typically include a small number of open-ended questions and a larger number of close-ended questions.

In open-ended questions, only the wording of the question is fixed. The respondent is free to answer in his or her own words. The interviewer must record the answer word-for-word, w/out abbreviations.

 

In close-ended questions, the wording of both the question and the possible response categories is fixed. The respondent selects one answer from a list of pre-specified alternatives. (don’t read out “other”, but should be present in case they say something else)

 

Advantages of Close-Ended Questions

  • help to ensure comparability among respondents
  • ensure that responses are relevant. Allows comparison
  • leave little to the discretion of the interviewer. Respondent has control over classification of their answer.
  • take relatively little interviewing time: quick to ask & answer
  • easy to code, process, and analyze the responses
  • give respondents a useful checklist of possibilities
  • help people who are not very articulate to express an opinion

 

Disadvantages of Close-Ended Questions

  • may prompt people to answer even though they do not have an opinion (preferable not to offer “no opinion” but have it on questionnaire. Difference btwn don’t know and no answer.
  • may channel people’s thinking, producing responses that do not really reflect their opinion. Bias results.
  • may overlook some important possible responses
  • may result in a loss of rapport with respondents: throw in open-ended to engage people
  • misunderstanding (if using terms that could be difficult, provide definition for interviewers. Don’t adlib.)

The responses to close-ended questions must always be interpreted in light of the pre-set alternatives that were offered to respondents.

 

Advantages and Disadvantages of Open-Ended Questions

 

Advantages

Open-ended questions avoid the disadvantages of close-ended questions. They can also provide rich contextual material, often of an unexpected nature. (quotes can make report more interesting).

-avoid putting ideas in people’s heads

-can engage people

 

Disadvantages

Open-ended questions are easy to ask—but they are difficult to answer and still more difficult to analyze. Open-ended questions:

  • take up more interviewing time and impose a heavier burden on the interviewer
  • increase the possibility of interviewer bias if the interviewer ends up paraphrasing the responses
  • require more processing
  • increase the possibility of researcher bias since the responses have to be coded into categories for the purpose of analysis (must reduce to a set of numbers. Introduce risk of bias. Getting others to code for intersubjectivity is time consuming and expensive.)
  • the classification of responses may misrepresent the respondent’s opinion. Respondent’s have no control over how their response is used.
  • transmissibility and hence replicability may be compromised by the coding operation
  • respondents may give answers that are irrelevant. Solution: use open-ended in pilot study, then create close ended with answers. Some amount of info lost, less likely to overlook important alternative.

 

-close-ended response categories must be mutually exclusive and cover every category.

-avoid multiple answers (which is closest, comes closest to point of view)

-can have open & close-ended versions of same question, spread out in survey. Always open first.

 

Ordering the Questions

 

Question sequence is just as important as question wording. The order in which questions are asked can affect the responses that are given:

  • make sure that open-ended and close-ended versions of the same question are widely separated and that the open-ended version is asked first. (sufficiently separated)
  • if two questions are asked about the same topic, make sure that the first question asked will not colour responses to the subsequent question. Change order or separate questions.
  • avoid posing sensitive questions too early in the questionnaire.
  • begin with non-threatening questions that engage the respondent’s interest and seem related to the stated purpose of the survey. Help create rapport.
  • ensure some variety in the format of the questions in order to hold the respondent’s attention.

-when reading over questionnaire, try to think how you would react.  Not intimidating. Shouldn’t seem like a test

-have you unwittingly made your own views obvious and favoured a particular position?

-worded in a friendly, conversational way. Should seem natural.

-writing questions is likened to catching a particularly elusive fish.

-making assumptions that everyone understands the question the same way. The way you intended, assuming people have necessary information. Make questions unambiguous. Problem: people will express non-attitudes.

-if problems writing questions, often b/c not completely clear on topic concept. Importance of nominal definition.

 

Common Errors in Question Wording

‘Do you agree or disagree with the supposition that continued constitutional uncertainty will be detrimental to the Quebec economy?’

Error #1: the question uses language that may be unfamiliar to many respondents. The wording should be geared to the expected level of sophistication of the respondents.

‘Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements:

People like me have no say in what the government does

 

The government doesn’t care what people like me think’

Error #2: the wording of the statements is vague (the federal government? the provincial government? the municipal government?) Questions must always be worded as clearly as possible. (time, place, lvl of govt)

 

‘It doesn’t matter which party is in power, there isn’t much governments can do these days about basic problems’

Error #3: this is a double-barreled question. A respondent could agree with one part of the question and disagree with the other.

 

‘In federal politics, do you usually think of yourself as being on the left, on the right, or in the center?’

Error #4: this question assumes that the respondent understands the terminology of left and right.

 

‘Would you favor or oppose extending the North American Free Trade Agreement to include other countries?”’

Error #5: this question assumes that respondents are competent to answer. Also doesn’t say to what other countries. Solution: filter question: Do you happen to know what NAFTA is? People will want to answer even if they don’t know what it is (ex, fictitious topics). Lack of information.

 

‘Should welfare benefits be based on any relationship of economic dependency where people are living together, such as elderly siblings living together or a parent and adult child living together or should welfare benefits only be available to those who are single or married and/or have children under the age of 18 years?’

Error #6 this question is too wordy. In a self-administered survey, a question should contain no more than 20 words. In a face-to-face or telephone survey, it must be possible to ask the question comfortably in a single breath.

 

‘Do you agree that gay marriages should be legally recognized in Canada?’

Error #7: this is a leading question that encourages respondents to agree. The problem could be avoided by adding ‘or disagree. Especially important to avoid in regard to sensitive topics.

 

‘Canada has an obligation to see that its less fortunate citizens are given a decent standard of living’.

Error #8: this question is leading because it uses emotionally-laden language e.g. ‘less fortunate’, ‘decent’. Can also be leading by identifying with prestigious person or institution like Supreme Court, or w/someone who is disliked.

 

How often have you read about politics in the newspaper during the last week?

Error #9: this question is susceptible to social desirability bias because it seems to assume that the respondent has read the newspaper at least once during the previous week. People answer through filter of what makes them look good. “Have you had time to read the newspaper in the last week?”

 

-don’t abbreviate

-no more than 1 question per line

-open-ended must have space to write

-clear instructions

-informed consent

-privacy/confidentiality

A Checklist for Identifying Problems in the Pre-Test

  • Did close-ended questions elicit a range of opinion or did most respondents choose the same response category?
  • Do the responses tell you what you need to know?
  • Did most respondents choose ‘agree’ (the question was too bland -> should protect nature) or did most respondents choose ‘disagree’ (the question was too strongly worded -> abortion is murder)?
  • Did respondents have problems understanding a question? Were there a lot of don’t knows? (if they don’t get it, ask it again and move on)
  • Did several respondents refuse to answer the same question?
  • Did open-ended questions elicit too many irrelevant answers? (can you code responses)
  • Did open-ended questions produce yes/no or very brief responses? Add a probe. (best probe is silence, pen poised to record)

 

Topic 9: Content Analysis

Overview:

 

What is content analysis?

What can we analyze?

What questions can we answer?

Selecting the communications

Substantive content analysis

Substantive content analysis: coding manifest content

Substantive content analysis: coding latent content

Structural content analysis

Strengths of content analysis

Weaknesses of content analysis

 

What is content analysis?

-involves the analysis of any form of communication

-communications form the basis for drawing inferences about causal relations

-Content analysis is ‘any technique for making inferences by systematically and objectively identifying specified characteristics of communications’. (Holsti)

-Systematically means that content is included or excluded according to consistently applied criteria.

-Objectively requires that the identification be based on explicit rules. The categories used for coding content must be defined clearly enough and precisely enough that another researcher could apply them to the same content and obtain the same results

(transmissibility+replicability=intersubjectivity).

 

What can we analyze?

 

Content analysis can be performed on virtually any form of communication (books, magazines, poems, songs, speeches, diplomatic exchanges, videos, paintings…) provided:

  • there is a physical record of the communication.
  • the researcher can obtain access to that record

A content analysis can focus on one or more of the following questions: ‘who says what, to whom, why, how, and with what effect?’ (Lasswell)

-who/why: inferences about sender of the communication, causes or antecedents. Why does it take the form that it does?

-with what effect: inferences about effects on person(s) who receives it

What questions can we answer?

Content analysis can be used to:

  • test hypotheses about the characteristics or attributes of the communications themselves (what? how?)
  • make inferences about the communicator and/or the causes or antecedents of the communication (who? why?)
  • make inferences about the effect of the communication on the recipient(s) (with what effect?)

 

Rules of Content analysis

i.specify rules for selecting communications that will be analyzed

  1. specify characteristics you will analyze (what aspects of content)

iii. formulate rules for identifying characteristics when they appear

  1. apply the coding scheme to the selected communications

 

Selecting the communications

 

The first step is to define the universe of communications to be analyzed by defining criteria for inclusion.

 

Typical criteria include:

  • the type of communication
  • the location, frequency, minimum size or length of the communication
  • the distribution of the communication
  • the time period
  • the parties to the communication (if communication is two-way or multi-way)

 

If too many communications meet the specified criteria, a sampling plan must be specified in order to make a representative selection.

-if study is comparative, must choose comparable communications. Control in content analysis is the way communications are chosen (as similar as possible except one thing).

 

Type of Analysis (substantive vs structural)

Substantive content analysis

-In a substantive content analysis, the focus is on the substantive content of the communication—what has been said or written.

-A substantive content analysis is essentially a coding operation.

-The researcher codes—or classifies—the content of the selected communications according to a pre-defined conceptual framework

Examples:

  • coding newspapers editorials according to their ideological leaning
  • coding campaign coverage according to whether it deals with matters of style or substance

 

Substantive Content Analysis: Coding Manifest Content

-A substantive content analysis can involve coding manifest content and/or latent content

-Coding manifest content means coding the visible surface content i.e. the objectively identifiable characteristics of the communication

-list of words/phrases that are empirical counterparts to your concept (the hard part!)

-important to relate it to some sort of base -> longer means more likely to use particular words

-Example: choosing certain words or phrases as indicators of the values of key concepts and then simply counting how often those words or phrases occur within each communication.

Advantages:

  1. Ease
  2. Replicability
  3. Reliability (consistency)

Intersubjectivity?

Disadvantages

  1. meaning depends on context
  2. loss of nuance and sublety of meaning

-possible that word is being used in an unexpected way (irony, sarcasm)

-validity: are we really measuring what we think we’re measuring?

 

Substantive Content Analysis: Coding Latent Content

Coding latent content involves coding the underlying meaning. (tone of media, etc)

 

Example:

  • reading an entire newspaper editorial and making a judgment as to its overall ideological leaning.

reading an entire newspaper story and making a judgment as to whether the person covered is reflected in a positive, negative, or neutral light.

Advantages

(1) less loss of meaning and thus higher validity.

Disadvantages

(1) requires the researcher to make judgments and infer meaning, thus increasing risk of bias.

(2) lower reliability.-> differences in judgment

(3) lower transmissibility and hence replicability. -> cannot communicate to a reader exactly how judgement was made

-researcher is making judgments about meaning, which may be influenced by own values

Solution: take 1 hypothesis & test it different ways. More compelling, more experience w/ pros and cons of content analysis. Test hypothesis as many ways as possible.

-strive for high intercoder reliability (2 people recode independently, 90% similarity)

-use all 3 methods

 

Structural Content Analysis

 

A structural content analysis focuses on physical measurement of content.(time, space)

 

Examples:

  • how much space does a newspaper accord a given issue (number of columns, number of paragraphs, etc.)?
  • how much prominence does a newspaper accord a given issue (size of headline, placement in the newspaper, presence of a photograph, etc.)?
  • how many minutes does a news broadcast give to stories about each political party?
  • Column inches, seconds of airtime, order of stories, pages, paragraphs, size of headline, photograph= measures of prominence

 

Measurements of space and time must always be related to the total size/length of the communication

-standardize: relative to size w/same paper, not compare headline size in 2 papers

Advantages

  1. reliability
  2. replicability -easy to explain methods

Disadvantages

  1. loss of nuance & subtlety of meaning

-less valid: can you really represent subtle nuanced ideas by counting/measuring?

 

Strengths of Content Analysis

-economy

-generalizability (external validity). Representative, more confidence.

-safety: risk of missing something, time, etc not existant here. You can recode.

-ability to study historical events or political actors: asking people means you get answers they think now, not what they thought then

-ability to study inaccessibly political actors (supreme court justices)

-unobtrusive (non-reactive)

-reliability: highly reliable way of doing research, consistent results (structural, manifest)

-few ethical dilemmas. Communications already been produced, won’t harm or embarrass people.

 

Weaknesses of content analysis

-requires a physical record of communication

-need access to communications

-loss of meaning (low validity): are we measuring what we think we’re measuring?

-risky to infer motivations—political actors do not necessarily mean what they write or say. (Take into account purpose of communication if asking why)

-laborious and tedious

-subjective bias -> important elements of subjectivity (latent analysis: making judgements, inferences about meaning)

-> no one best way of doing content analysis. Do all 3.

 

 

Major Coding Categories

-warfare: a battle royal, political equivalent of heat seeking missiles, fighting a war on several fronts, a night of political skirmishes, took a torpedo in the boilers, master of the blindside attack

-general violence: a goold old-fashioned free-for-all, one hell of a fight, assailants in the alley

-sports and games: contestants squared off, left on the mat, knockout blow

-theatre and showbiz: a dress rehearsal, got equal billing, put their figures in the spotlight

-natural phenomena: nothing earth-shattering, an avalanche of opinion

-other

 

Coding Statements

-descriptive: present the who, what, where, when, without any meaningful qualification or elaboration

-analytical: draw inferences or reach conclusions (typically about the causes of the behaviour or event) based on fact not observed

-evaluative: make judgments about how well the person being reported on performed

 

Topic 10: Measurement

Overview:

 

What is measurement?

 

Rules and levels of measurement

 

Nominal-level measurement

 

Ordinal-level measurement

 

Interval-level measurement

 

Ratio-level measurement

 

What is Measurement?

-foundation of statistics

Measurement is the process of assigning numerals to observations according to rules.

 

These numerals are referred to as the values of the variable we are measuring (not numbers, but numberals, simply symbols or labels whereas numbers have quantitative meaning).

 

Measurement can be qualitative or quantitative.

 

If we want to measure something, we have to make up a set of rules that specify how the numerals are to be assigned to our observations.

 

 

 

 

Rules and Levels of Measurement

 

-The rules determine the level, or quality, of measurement achieved. <- most important part of definition.

-The level of measurement determines what kinds of statistical tests can be performed on the resulting data.

-The level of measurement that can be achieved depends on:

  • the nature of the property being measured
  • the choice of data collection procedures

-The general rule is to aim for the highest possible level of measurement because higher levels of measurement enable us to perform more powerful and more varied tests.

-The rules can provide a basis for classifying, ordering or quantifying our observations.

-no hierarchical order, can substitute any numeral for any other numeral. All they indicate is that the categories are different.

 

4 Levels: NOIR

Nominal-level measurement

Ordinal-level measurement

Interval-level measurement

Ratio-level measurement

 

Nominal-level measurement

-Nominal-level measurement represents the lowest level of measurement, most primitive, least information

-Nominal measurement involves classifying a variable into two or more (predefined) categories and then sorting our observations into the appropriate category.

-The numerals simply serve to label the categories. They have no quantitative meaning. Words or symbols could perform the same function. There is no hierarchy among the categories and the categories cannot be related to one another numerically. The categories are interchangeable.

-classify

-Rule: do not assign the same numeral to different categories or different numerals to the same category. The categories must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

Ex) sex, religion, ethnic origin, language

 

Ordinal-Level Measurement

-Ordinal-level measurement involves classifying a variable into a set of ordered categories and then sorting our observations into the appropriate category according to whether they have more or less of the property being measured. Allows ordering and classifying. Notion of hierarchy.

-The categories stand in a hierarchical relationship to one another and the numerals serve to indicate the order of the categories. Numerals stand for relative amount of the property.

-classify, order

-more useful, direction of relation btwn variables

-With ordinal-level measurement, we can say only that one observation has more of the property than another. We can not say how much more.

Ex) social class, strength of party loyalty, interest in politics

 

Interval-Level Measurement

-Interval-level measurement involves classifying a variable into a set of ordered categories that have an equal interval (fixed and known interval) between them and then sorting our observations into the appropriate category according to how much of the property they possess.

-There is a fixed and known interval (or distance) between each category and the numerals have quantitative meaning. They indicate how much of the property each observation has (actual amount).

-Classify, order, meaningful distances.

-With interval-level measurement, we can say not only that one observation has more of the property than another, we can also say how much more.

-BUT we cannot say that one observation has twice as much of the property than another observation. Zero is arbitrary.

Ex) celcius and farenheit scales of temperature

 

Ratio-Level Measurement (highest)

-The only difference between ratio-level measurement and interval-level measurement is the presence of a non-arbitrary zero point.

-A non-arbitrary zero point means that zero indicates the absence of the property being measured.

-Now we can say that one observation has twice as much of the property as another observation.

-Any property than can be represented by counting can be measured at the ratio-level.

-classify, order, meaningful distance, non-arbitrary zero

Ex) income, years of schooling, gross national product, number of alliances, turnout to vote

 

-in poli sci, few things are above the ordinal level. Stretches credulity to believe that we could come up with equal units of collectivism or alienation.

-anything that can be measured at a higher lvl can be measured at a lower lvl

-always try to achieve highest lvl of measurement. Constrained by technique used to collect data.

Topic 11: Statistics: Describing Variables

Overview:

 

Descriptive versus inferential statistics

Univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistics

Univariate descriptive statistics

Describing a distribution

Measuring central tendency

Measuring dispersion

 

Descriptive versus Inferential Statistics

 

Descriptive statistics are used to describe characteristics of a population or a sample.

 

Inferential statistics are used to generalize from a sample to the population from which the sample was drawn. They are called ‘inferential’ because they involve using a sample to make inferences about the population.

 

Univariate, Bivariate and Multivariate Statistics

 

Univariate statistics are used when we want to describe (descriptive) or make inferences about (inferential) the values of a single variable.

 

Bivariate statistics are used when we want to describe (descriptive) or make inferences about (inferential) the relationship between the values of two variables.

 

Multivariate statistics are used when we want to describe (descriptive) or make inferences about (inferential) the relationship among the values of three or more variables.

-can all be descriptive or inferential

 

Univariate Descriptive Statistics

 

Data analysis begins by describing three characteristics of each variable under study:

  • the distribution : how many cases take each value?
  • the central tendency: which is the most typical value? best represents a typical case
  • the dispersion: how much do values vary? how spread out are cases across the possible categories? If there is much dispersion, measure of central tendency may be misleading.

 

-frequency value tells us how many cases take each of the possible values. Records the frequency with which each possible value occurs.

 

Describing a Distribution I

 

Knowing how the observations are distributed across the various possible values of the variable is important because many statistical procedures make assumptions about the distribution. If those assumptions are not met, the procedure is not appropriate.

 

A frequency distribution is simply a list of the number of observations in each category of the variable. It is called a frequency distribution because it displays the frequency with which each possible value occurs.

-frequency value tells us how many cases take each of the possible values. Records the frequency with which each possible value occurs.

 

Describing a distribution:

Raw frequencies (how many cases took off diff possible values)

-title informative, tell us variable for which data is being presented. Not interpret table

-source: name source

-footnote

-totals are difficult to compare, translate into %

-gives a relative idea of what to expect in the rest of the population

-gives a consistent base to make comparisons

-never report % w/out also reporting total # of cases in survey. Makes data meaningful.

– no % w/fewer than 20 cases: present raw frequency

-if data come from a sample, round off percentages to the nearest whole number, should assume that there is error.

-round up to .6-.9. round down .1-.4. with 0.5, round to nearest even number.

-99, 100, and 101% are acceptable totals. Can add note saying that numbers may not add up to 100.

-present in form of graph or chart. Contains exact same info, but easier to visualize. More interpretable, more appealing. Pie-chart, line graph.

-tricks: truncated scale to make things look better/worse. Always check the scaling.

-need to check distribution to make sure that its appropriate to use a particular statistic

 

Interval/ratio: not simply numerals, but numbers w/quantitative meanings. Can’t use bar or pie chart. To present distribution, must collapse lvls of variables into small groups.

-guidelines: 1. At least 6, but no more than 20 intervals. Lose to much info about distribution if too small, but more than 20 defeats the purpose of creating class intervals & data is not readily accessible.

  1. intervals must all have same width, encompass same # of values to be comparable (can have larger open-ended category at the end)
  2. don’t want them to be too wide. Want to be able to consider every case within a given interval to be similar, makes sense to treat cases within the interval as the same.
  3. must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

 

Describing a distribution: interval lvl data

-create a line graph.

-the only pts w. any info are the dots. Connect to remind reader that original distribution was continuous.

 

 

,relative frequencies, bar charts, pie-chart, interval level data,

 

Central Tendency versus Dispersion

 

A measure of central tendency indicates the most typical value, the one value that best represents the entire distribution

 

A measure of dispersion tells us just how typical that value really is by indicating the extent to which observations are concentrated in a few categories of the variable or spread out among all of the categories.

-evaluating central tendency. Important for evaluating sample size. Don’t want to only describe variables (see if covary in predicted ways)

-2 distributions could have similar central tendency, but be very different. Use more than one measure.

A measure of dispersion tells us how much the values of the variable vary. Knowing the amount of dispersion is important because:

  • the appropriate sample size is highly dependent on the amount of variation in the population. The greater the variation, the larger the sample will need to be.
  • we cannot measure covariation unless both variables do vary.

 

 

Measuring Central Tendency and Dispersion (Nominal-Level)

The mode is the most frequently occurring value—the category of the variable that contains the greatest number of cases. The only operation required is counting.

The proportion of cases that do not fall in the modal category tells us just how typical the modal value is. This is what Mannheim and Rich call the variation ratio.

-bimodal distribution: 2 are tied for most cases

V= f nonmodal

 N

-dispersion: wht % of people were not in the modal category. The proportion who do not fall in the modal category tells us how typical the modal value is. Manheim and Rich call: variation ratio -> the lower the variation ratio, the more typical and meaningful the mode.

– in the case of bimodal or multimodal cases, select on mode arbitrarily.

 

Measuring Central Tendency and Dispersion (Ordinal-Level) I

Central Tendency:

-always present categories in order, natural order, should retain it

-central tendency based on order or relative position

 

The median is the value taken by the middle case in a distribution. It has the same number of cases above and below it. If even # of cases, take average of the two middle cases.

-cumulative frequency: eliminating raw frequency, tells # of cases that took that value or lower.

Dispersion:

 

The range simply indicates the highest and lowest values taken by the cases. Problem: could overstate variability. Range doesn’t tell us anything about how things are distributed btwn points.

The inter-quantile range is the range of values taken by the middle 50 percent of cases—inter-quantile because the endpoints are a quantile above and below the median value.

Measuring Central Tendency (Interval and Ratio-Level) I

 

The measure of central tendency for interval- and ratio-level data is the mean (or average value). Simply sum the values and divide by the number of cases:

 

Fall term grades: 70 75 78 82 85

GPA (or mean grade) = 78

 

-The mean is the preferred measure of central tendency because it takes into account the distance (or intervals) between cases. The fact that there are fixed and known intervals between values enables us to add and divide the values.

-The mean is sensitive to the presence of a small number of cases with extreme values:

When an interval-level distribution has a few cases with extreme values, the median should be used instead.

  • The mean is sensitive to the presence of a small number of cases with extreme values: 26,000. 28,000. 29,000. 32,000, 34,000, 36,000: mean = 31,000 median=32,000
  • Group #2 15,000. 18,000/ 19,000/ 22,000/ 23,000/ 25,000/ 95,000 mean=31,000 median 22,000

-Because the mean is subject to distortion, the mean value should always be presented along with the appropriate measure of dispersion.

-problematic when a few values are extreme cases. Mean take account of how far each case is from the others.

 

Measuring Dispersion (Interval- and Ratio-level) II

 

The standard deviation is the appropriate measure of dispersion at the interval-level because it takes account of every value and the distance between values in determining the amount of variability.

 

The standard deviation will be zero if—and only if—each and every case has the same value as the mean. The more cases deviate from the mean, the larger the standard deviation will be.

 

We cannot use the standard deviation to compare the amount of dispersion in two distributions that use different units of measurement (e.g. dollars and years) because the standard deviation will reflect both the dispersion and the units of measurement.

 

N= the number of cases, Xi = the value of each individual case, X= the mean see page 264.

 

Calculating Standardized Scores or Z-Values

 

-If we want to compare the relative position of two cases on the same variable or the relative values of the same case on two different variables like annual income and years of schooling, we can standardize the values by converting them into Z-scores.

 

The Z score allows us to compare scores that are based on very different units of measurement (for example, age measured in number of years and height measured in inches). -Z-scores tell us the exact number of standard deviation units any particular case lies above or below the mean:

 

Zi =  (Xi  – X)/S

 

where Xi is the value for each case, X is the mean value and S is the standard deviation.

 

Example: person1 has an annual income of $80,000 and person2 has an annual income of $30,000. The mean annual income in their community is $50,000 and the standard deviation is $20,000

 

Z1 = ($80,000 – $50,000)/$20,000 =  1.5

Z2 = ($30,000 – $50,000)/$20,000 =  – 1

Topic Twelve: Statistics — Estimating Sampling Error and Sample Size

Overview:

What is sampling error?

What are probability distributions?

Interpreting normal distributions

What is a sampling distribution?

The sampling distribution of the sample means

The central limit theorem

Estimating confidence intervals around a sample mean

Estimating sample size—means

Estimating confidence intervals around a sample proportion

Estimating sample size–proportions

 

What is sampling error?

 

No matter how carefully a sample is selected, there is always the possibility of sampling error (i.e. some discrepancy between our sample value and the true population value).

 

We cannot determine the amount of sampling error directly because we typically don’t know the true population value. But we can use inferential statistics to estimate the probable sampling error associated with any sample value. Use of probability distributions.

 

What are probability distributions?

 

Estimating sampling error involves using probability distributions.

 

Probability distributions are theoretical distributions that indicate the likelihood, or the probability, of certain values occurring, given certain assumptions about the nature of the distribution.

 

By far the most important class of probability distributions take the form of a normal distribution.

 

The normal distribution takes the form of a symmetrical bell-shaped curve. The mean, median and mode of normally distributed data coincide with the highest point of the curve (have the same value). Can use standard deviation to interpret distribution.

 

Interpreting normal distributions I

 

The standard deviation is used to interpret data that are normally distributed.

 

IF data are normally distributed, 68.3% of the cases will fall within one standard deviation of the mean of the distribution, 95.5% of the cases will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean, and 99.7% of the cases will fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

These proportions are equal to the proportion of the area under the curve between these values.

Interpreting normal distributions II

 

We can determine the proportion of cases falling within any number of standard deviations, integer or non-integer, from the mean e.g. 83.8% of cases will fall within 1.4 standard deviations of the mean

 

Since we use standard deviation units and not simply the original values to interpret the normal distribution, we transform the original values into standard deviation units or Z-scores.

 

Z= (xi – X)/s

 

Z-scores tell us the exact number of standard deviation units any particular case lies above or below the mean.

 

If our data are normally distributed, all we have to do to estimate the probability of any range of values occurring around the mean is to convert the data into Z-scores and consult the appropriate table.

 

What is a sampling distribution?

 

The sampling distribution is a theoretical probability distribution that in actual practice would never be calculated.

 

The sampling distribution of the sample means is the distribution that we would obtain if:

  • every conceivable sample of a certain size were drawn from the same population
  • the sample means were calculated for each sample and
  • the sample means were arranged in a frequency distribution.

 

Different cases would be included in different samples so the sample means would not all be identical (e.g. some samples would contain only the very rich and some samples would contain only the desperately poor). But:

  • most sample means would tend to cluster around the true population mean value and
  • this clustering around the true mean value would increase if the sample size were increased

The sampling distribution of the sample means

 

IF the sample size is sufficiently large (at least 30 cases), the sampling distribution of the sample means will be approximately normally distributed and the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample means will coincide with the true population mean.

-can make use of the fact that it is normally distributed, and we can use that to estimate placement of the mean.

-the standard error of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the population, divided by the square roots of the sample size

 

The Central Limit Theorem

 

The sampling distribution is a theoretical distribution–in real life, we select only one sample. But the fact that sample means will be normally distributed enables us to evaluate the probable accuracy of our particular sample mean.

 

Provided that our sample (1) is randomly selected (every case has a known probability of inclusion and a non-zero probability of inclusion) and (2) has at least 30 cases, the central limit theorem tells us that we can use our knowledge of the area under the curve to estimate how probable it is that the true population mean will fall within any given range of values of our sample mean.

 

e.g. since we know that 95.5% of sample means will lie within 2 standard deviation units of the true population mean, we can be 95.5% confident that our sample mean will also lie within 2 standard deviations of the true population mean.

 

Estimating confidence Intervals around a Sample Mean I

 

Conventionally, we want to be 90% confident, 95% confident or 99% confident. The corresponding Z-values are 1.64, 1.96 and 2.57

 

i.e. we can be 90% confident that our sample mean will lie within 1.64 standard deviations of the population mean, 95% confident that it will lie within 1.96 standard deviations, and 99% confident that it will lie within 2.57 standard deviations. These ranges of values are called confidence intervals.

 

A confidence interval is a range of values, estimated on the basis of sample data, within which we can say, with a pre-specified degree of confidence that the true population value will lie.

-the higher the confidence lvl, the wider the confidence interval must become.

 

Confidence level: the likelihood that our sample is in fact representative of the larger population within the degree of accuracy we have specified.

 

The lower the percentage of sampling error and the greater the level of confidence, the better a piece of research will be.

 

The size of the confidence interval will depend on how confident we want to be that the interval does contain the true unknown population mean. The more confident we want to be, the wider the confidence interval will have to be.

 

Estimating confidence intervals around a sample mean II

 

In order to determine what 1.96 standard deviations actually means in terms of our original measurement scale (e.g. dollars, years), we need to estimate the value of the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample means.

 

The standard error of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the population, divided by the square root of the sample size.

This makes sense intuitively:

  • the more variability there is in the population, the more variability there will be in the sample estimates.
  • as the sample size increases, the variability in the sample estimates should decrease because extreme values will have less of a distorting effect on the calculation of the sample mean.

Since we typically do not know the true population standard deviation, we use our best estimate i.e. the standard deviation from our particular sample.

 

Estimating confidence intervals around a sample mean III

 

We then simply multiply our estimate of the sampling error of the mean by the Z-value associated with our chosen confidence level (1.64, 1.96 or 2.57) and we have the familiar plus or minus term:

Confidence lvl: X +- Zc.l. SX

-can be confident that something lies btwn 2 levels.

 

Estimating sample size I

 

Exactly the same concepts are used to help determine sample size. The formula for calculating the sample size simply involves rearranging the terms:

where:

E = ( Zc.l. S)/square root N

  • ZL. is the Z-value associated with the desired confidence level
  • S is the estimate of the population standard deviation
  • E is the amount of error we are willing to tolerate (i.e. the plus or minus term)

-variability, how accurate you want to be, how confident you want to be that you are that accurate.

-what is not a factor in this calculation? Population size. What matters is how much variation there is.

-calculation of sample size: constrained by resources, by variability w/in population

 

Estimating sample size II

 

In other words, we need 3 pieces of information in order to calculate sample size:

 

  • the amount of variability or heterogeneity in the population on the characteristic that we want to estimate. We typically do not know this, so we have to use our best estimate based on e.g. prior studies or a pilot study
  • the amount of error we are willing to tolerate i.e. how wide do we want our confidence interval to be?
  • the confidence level–how confident do we want to be that our sample estimate is that accurate?

The population size does not affect the sample size unless the sample is going to constitute 5 percent or more of the population

 

Example: to estimate mean GPA within + 2 points with a 95% level of confidence and an estimated population standard deviation of 12 points:

 

Estimating confidence intervals around a sample proportion

 

The logic is exactly the same when we want to estimate a population proportion on the basis of a sample proportion.

 

This time we draw on our knowledge of the fact that the sampling distribution of the sample proportions will be normally distributed and we have to calculate the standard error of the proportion.

(see 12.15)

 

If we have no basis for estimating the sample proportion, we should use the value that assumes the maximum amount of variability.

The maximum possible value for the standard error of the sample proportion occurs when we assume a population proportion of .5

TOPIC 13: Causal Thinking and Research Design

 

Overview:

Why is research design so important?

The nature of causal inferences

The classic experimental design

Internal validity

Extrinsic threats to internal validity

Intrinsic threat to internal validity

Threats to external validity

Variations on the classic experimental design

Quasi-experimental designs

 

-generalize causal inferences

-determine causal connection

-> our ability to do this hinges on how we design our research. Don’t rule our plausible causal interpretations.

Why is research design so important?

 

Purpose: to impose controlled restrictions on our observations of the empirical world.

 

A good research design:

  • allows the researcher to draw causal inferences with confidence
  • defines the domain of generalizability of those inferences

The way we structure our data-gathering strongly affects the nature of the causal interpretations we can place on the results.

 

The research must be designed so that we can rule out plausible alternative interpretations of the observed relationships.

 

The nature of causal inferences

 

We can never be certain that one variable ‘causes’ another–but we can increase confidence in our causal inferences if we are able to:

-demonstrate co-variation

-eliminate sources of spuriousness

-establish time order

Covariation—show that the IV and DV vary together in a patterned, consistent way (if A, then B)

 

NonSpuriousness — rule out the possibility that the IV and DV only co-vary because they share a common cause

 

Time order — show that a change in the IV preceded a change in the DV

 

How can we get more confident?

-don’t say what causes what. Assume there is some sort of causal influence involved

-change in value of 1 variable enhanced another’s change in value

-fundamental problem of causal inference: always has one causal influence. Demonstrate covariation, demonstrate non-spuriousness, time order.

-demonstrating covariation at the heart of hypothesis testing. Time order: demonstrate that IV occured before DV. Cause b4 effect.

-causal interpretation cannot come from data itself. However, can design research so that some outcomes are impossible and/or use statistical methods to analyze data & rule out possibilities ex-post facto. Can only do this if thought of it at research design stage.

 

The classic experimental design I

 

The classic experimental design consists of two groups: an experimental group and a control group.

 

These two groups are equivalent in every respect, except that the experimental group is exposed to the IV and the control group is not.

 

To assess the effect of differential exposure to the IV, the researcher measures the values of the DV in both groups, before and after the experimental group is exposed to the IV.

 

The first set of measurements is called the pre-test and the second set of measurements is called the post-test.

 

If the difference between the pre-test and post-test is larger in the experimental group, this is inferred to be the result of exposure to the IV.

 

Group

Experimental

Control

Time 1

Pretest

Pretest

Time 2

Exposure to IV

 

Time 3

Post-test

Post-test

 

Why is the classic experimental design so powerful?

 

The classic experimental design has 3 essential components that enable us to meet the 3 requirements for demonstrating causality:

Comparison -> covariation

Manipulation -> time order

Control -> non-spuriousness

 

-able to study impact of IV free of all other conflicting inferences

-unfortunately, much of what we study is not amenable to this design

-even in non-experimental research, we try to mimic this design.

 

 

Internal Validity

-absolute basic requirement of a research design

A research design has internal validity when it enables us to infer with reasonable confidence that the IV does indeed have a causal influence on the DV. Must enable to us to rule out plausible alternative causal relations.

 

To demonstrate internal validity, our research design must enable us to rule out other plausible causal interpretations of the observed co-variation between the IV and DV.

 

The factors that threaten internal validity can be classified into those that are extrinsic to the actual research and those that are intrinsic.

 

Extrinsic threats to internal validity

 

Extrinsic threats to internal validity typically arise from the way we select our cases.

 

They refer to selection biases that cause the experimental group and the control group to differ even before the experimental group is exposed to the IV.

 

If the two groups are not equivalent, then a possible explanation for any difference in the post-test results is that the two groups differed to begin with.

 

Intrinsic threat to internal validity I

 

Intrinsic threats to internal validity arise once study is under way from:

-changes in the cases being studied during the study period (history)

-flaws in the measurement procedure

-the reactive effects of being observed

 

There are six major intrinsic threats:

History—events may occur while the study is under way which affect values on the DV quite independently of exposure to the IV. The longer the study, the greater this threat.

Maturation—physiological and /or psychological processes may affect values on the DV quite independent of exposure to the IV

Mortality—selective dropping out from the study may cause the experimental group and the control group to differ on the post-test, quite independent of exposure to the IV.

Instrumentation—if our measuring instruments do not perform consistently, this unreliability may explain why cases differ before and after exposure to the IV.

The regression effect—if cases score atypically high or atypically low when they are pre-tested, it is likely that their scores will appear more typical when they are post-tested, quite apart from exposure to the IV.

Reactivity (‘test effect’)—the very fact of being pre-tested may cause people’s values to change, quite apart from exposure to the IV.

 

Countering extrinsic threats to internal validity I

 

Extrinsic threats are countered by ensuring that the experimental group and the control group are equivalent. (selection bias might cause groups to differ before exposure) There are 3 ways of ensuring equivalence:

Precision matching (also known as ‘pairwise matching’)—each case in the experimental group is literally matched with another case in the control group which has an identical combination of characteristics.

 

This method can be impractical because of the difficulty of finding matched pairs of cases.

Countering extrinsic threats to internal validity II

 

Frequency distribution matching—instead of matching cases on combinations of characteristics, the distribution of characteristics within each group is matched (i.e. the two groups should have the same proportion of men and women, the same average income level, the same ethno-linguistic composition, etc.)

This method is easier to achieve, don’t have to reject a lot of potential cases, but:

  • the effects of any one characteristic may be conditioned by the presence of other characteristics e.g. the effects of age may differ for men and women.
  • we can only match social background characteristics, but people who share the same social characteristic may differ in other ways.
  • we can never be confident that we have matched on all relevant characteristics.

 

Countering extrinsic threats to internal validity III

Randomization—cases are assigned to the experimental group and the control group in such a way that each case has an equal probability of being assigned to either group i.e. selection is left entirely to chance. (table of random, numbers, flip a coin)

 

If the randomization is done properly, the two groups should be equivalent.

 

This method controls for numerous factors simultaneously without the researcher having to make decisions about which factors might have a confounding effect.

 

BUT randomization requires a large number of cases in order to work effectively.

 

Countering intrinsic threats to internal validity

 

The presence of a control group that is equivalent in every respect to the experimental group except that is not exposed to the IV counters the intrinsic threats to internal validity:

History–both groups are exposed to the same events—so any difference in their post-test values must reflect differential exposure to the IV.

Maturation–both groups undergo the same maturational processes

Mortality–selective dropping out will affect both groups equally.

Instrumentation—both groups will be equally affected by random errors in measurement.

Regression effect—both groups will be equally susceptible.

Reactivity—if the pre-test does affect values on the post-test, this will be true of both groups.

 

-any difference must be because of the IV because everything else has been controlled for

-unambiguous basis for knowing that change in the IV occurred before change in the DV in time

-very strong internal validity, strong basis for inferring causal relations

problem: causal relations may only apply to case that you studied -> weak external validity = weak basis for generalizing

 

Threats to external validity

 

External validity concerns the extent to which the research findings can be generalized beyond the particular cases that were studied.

 

There are 3 threats to external validity:

-unrepresentative cases (people who volunteer are not representative)

-the artificiality of the research setting (people do not react the same way in the real world)

-reactivity—the pre-test may sensitize participants to respond atypically to the IV

 

The classic design is strong on internal validity and weak on external validity.

 

The Solomon 3-control group design

(also known as the Solomon 4-group design)

 

-This design has stronger external validity because it enables the researcher to assess the reactive effects of the pre-test experience.

-enhance external validity, helps assess reactive effect of the pretest

-This design is similar to the classic experimental design but it adds two more control groups. One group is exposed to the IV, but the other group is not. Neither group is pre-tested, but both groups are post-tested.

 

The post-test only control group design

The Solomon 3-control group design is stronger on external validity but:

  • often impractical
  • too costly

 

Another solution is to omit the pre-test altogether. This is only possible if we are very confident that the experimental group and the control group are really equivalent.

-avoid problem of testing, but still problem w/unrepresentativeness & artificiality.

-in practice cannot maximize internal & external validity. The more generalizability, the less internal validity.

-which matters most? Internal validity. Unequivocal basis for making causal inferences. However, typically study things as they are already, can’t manipulate countries/education, etc in experiments. Studying people already exposed to IV, so must use designs that are weaker in internal validity.

 

Quasi-experimental designs I

 

Experimental designs provide the most unequivocal basis for inferring causal relationships—but political phenomena are typically not amenable to experimental manipulation.

 

Quasi-experimental designs attempt to use the logic of the experimental design in situations where the researcher cannot randomly assign observations to experimental and control groups or control exposure to the IV.

 

In this design, comparison and control are achieved statistically. Multivariate statistical analysis is the most common alternative to experimental methods of control.

 

Quasi-experimental designs II

 

-The ex post facto experiment is most common type of quasi-experimental design. It attempts to approximate the post-test only control group design by using multivariate statistical methods. Try to apply logic of experimental design after having collected data. Cross-tabulations. Compare in order to demonstrate covariation.

 

-The researcher collects data on the IV, the DV and any other variables that might plausibly alter or even eliminate any observed covariation between the IV and the DV.

 

-At the analysis stage, cases are assigned to groups depending on their values on the IV. Then the researcher compares each group’s values on the DV. Any difference is inferred to be the result of the fact that the groups differ on the IV.

-To demonstrate non-spuriousness, the cases are divided into groups based on their values on the plausible source of spuriousness variable and the researcher compares values on the IV and the DV (as above) within each group. If the IV and DV continue to covary within each group, the relationship is not spurious.

-when we examine categories, we are matching: same drawback. Researchers must decide what are relevant variables and possible SS>

-taking liberties w/notion of control, try to mimic logic of the control group

-demonstrate non-spuriousness, correlation, but can’t demonstrate time-order.

Topic Fourteen: Statistics — Cross-Tabulations and Statistical Significance

 

Overview

Demonstrating covariation

Creating a cross-tabulation (nominal-level relationship)

Interpreting a cross-tabulation

Statistical significance

Type I versus Type II error

Estimating the probability of Type I error

The Logic of the Chi Square Test

Calculating Chi Square

Using and Abusing the Chi Square Test

 

Demonstrating Covariation

Demonstrating covariation involves answering 3 questions:

 

ü Degree–how strong is the relationship between the IV and the DV? Strength of association. Descriptive statistics.

 

ü Form–which values of the DV are associated with which values of the IV? Descriptive statistics. Positive or negative relationship.

 

ü Statistical significanceif the data are taken from a sample, can the relationship be generalized to the population from which the sample was drawn? Could we have obtained this relationship if there wasn’t one in the population? Inferential statistics

 

The tests that are used to answer these questions will depend on the level of measurement of the IV and the DV. The higher the level of measurement, the more varied and the more powerful the tests that can be used.

-cases can be affected by frequency distribution.

 

Creating a Cross-Tabulation (nominal-level relationship) I

 

The first step in describing the relationship between two variables is to arrange the data so that we can get an initial visual impression of the relationship.

 

If both variables are measured at the nominal level, this involves arranging the data in the form of a contingency table or cross-tabulation.

 

-A cross-tabulation involves classifying cases according to their values on the IV and then cross-classifying them according to their values on the DV. The cells of the table display the number of cases having each possible combination of values on the IV and the DV.

-eliminate irrelevant categories (missing data). Eliminate Categories that are useless for meaningful analysis (numbers too small). Can only do this in nominal level.

-The single most common error in constructing a cross-tabulation is to percentage the wrong way.

-The cell percentages must be calculated in terms of the total number of cases in each category of the independent variable. If we are testing the hypothesis that women are less likely to vote for new right parties than men, we have to compare the % of women who voted Alliance with the % of men who voted Alliance.

-A cross-tabulation is interpreted by comparing categories of the independent variable in terms of the percentage distribution of the dependent variable i.e. we compare the % of women who voted Alliance with the % of men who voted Alliance.

-If the independent variable forms the columns of the table, the percentages are calculated by column and then the columns are compared i.e. percentage down and compare across columns.

-total in each column/row are marginal frequencies. Literally, on margin of table.

-reasons to % table: 1. If don’t have equal cases in diff IV categories, difficult to compare cell frequencies 2. Even if equal, easier to read out of 100 than other things.

-don’t use decimal to avoid a false sense of precision in %

 

Interpreting a Cross-Tabulation (nominal-level relationship) II

  • check whether there are differences in the distribution of the DV for the different categories of the IV.
  • if there are differences, check whether they are consistent with the hypothesis.
  • if the percentage differences are consistent with the hypothesis, see how big they are. The larger the differences, the stronger the relationship.
  • if the data come from a sample, check how likely it is that differences this large could have occurred by chance (as a result of sampling error) i.e. how confident can we be that the relationship observed in the sample exists in the population at large?

 

Tests:

  • inter-ocular strike test: no substitute for eyeballing the table. If no difference, then there is no relation.
  • Are differences continuous w/hypothesis? Is the gap the one predicted? (form)
  • If % are in hypothesized direction, how big are the differences? Bigger the difference, the more impact IV is having. But % don’t have to be drastic to be meaningful.
  • Statistical significance

 

Statistical Significance

 

Statistical significance indicates how likely (or probable) it is that the relationship between two variables observed in a sample might have occurred by chance and might not exist in the population from which the sample was drawn.

 

This probability is termed the level of statistical significance. The lower the probability, the higher the level of statistical significance. Want a low probability (.05 or less is conventional. 5% chance they don’t generalize)

 

A test of statistical significance is an inferential statistic. Purpose to estimate how likely it is that results occurred by chance & is not representative of population.

 

Type I versus Type II Error

 

In making inference about the whole population based on the results of a sample, we risk making one of two types of error:

 

  • inferring that there is a relationship when none actually exists.

 

  • inferring that there is no relationship when there really is a relationship.

The risk of Type I error is always viewed as much more serious than Type II error:

  • the analogy of a court of law—just as we’d rather risk letting a guilty person go free than convicting an innocent one, so we’d rather risk missing a relationship than inferring one where none exists.
  • If our sample indicates that there is no relationship, we are usually ready to accept this verdict without worrying how confident we should be.

-much harder to calculate type II error

 

How to calculate type I error

-rely on theoretical frequency distribution, which provides us with criteria for assessing risk of error

-theoretical now gives likelihood of each possible degree of association in a sample if there was no relation w/in population.

-chisq distribution. Chisq= appropriate w/nominal level relations, also ordinal lvl

-cross tab is interpreted by comparing categories of the IV in terms of the % distribution of the DV. (% women alliance voters with % men alliance voters)

-if the IV forms the columns, the % are calculated by column and then the columns are compared (percentage down, compare across)

-use knowledge of theoretical distribution to judge how confident we can be that results will hold in population

 

Estimating the Probability of Making a Type I Error

 

Estimating the probability of making a Type I error (i.e. determining the level of statistical significance) involves the use of a theoretical sampling distribution.

 

For nominal-level relationships, the appropriate sampling distribution is the Chi-square distribution. This distribution gives the likelihood of each possible degree of relationship occurring in a sample if there were no relationship in the population from which the sample was drawn.

 

We use this theoretical distribution to determine how likely it is that we would have found a relationship as strong as the one observed in our sample if there were really no relationship in the population.

 

The Logic of the Chi Square Test

  • set up a null hypothesis i.e. assume that there is no relationship in the population.
  • calculate the cell frequencies you would expect to observe if the null hypothesis were true.
  • compare the expected cell frequencies with the observed cell frequencies — the greater the differences, the less risk of Type I error, and the bigger chisq, the more confident we can be that there is a relationship in population.
  • make a partial adjustment for sample size since the absolute amount of difference between the expected and observed cell frequencies is also a function of sample size.
  • calculate the degrees of freedom—the more cell there are in a table, the greater the opportunity for the observed distribution to depart from the expected distribution.
  • consult the theoretical Chi Square distribution to determine the significance level (SPSS automatically does this for you).

 

Calculating Expected Frequencies

-To obtain the expected cell frequency for a given cell, multiply the column marginal by the row marginal and divide by the total number of cases e.g.:

-The expected cell frequency tells us how many women we would expect to vote Alliance if the vote distribution for women matched the vote distribution for the sample as a whole. (461/1357) x 100 = 34% of the sample voted Alliance—so we would expect 34% of women to vote Alliance.

 

Calculating Chi Square

Xsquared =  (fo – fe)squared/fe

Where: fo = the frequency observed in each cell.

fe = the frequency expected in each cell

Degrees of freedom (# of columns minus one)(# of rows minus one) = 1 x 3 = 3

 

Chi Square = 29.2       significance level = .001

 

i.e. there is less than one chance in a 1,000 that we would have obtained a relationship like the one observed in our sample if there were really no relationship in the population.

-square to get rid of negative signs so that #’s don’t cancel out

-(fo-fe)squared/fe: other things being equal, the larger size, the larger the discrepancy. Therefore want to compensate for that by making a partial adjustment. Divide by expected frequency for each cell.

-only partial adjustment b/c larger samples are more reliable.

 

-distributional freedom: adjust for differences in the size of the table (differences btwn tables in the # of cells that they have). the more cells in a table, the more chances there are to deviate from the random model & want to adjust for this)

 

Chi square:

-significant at the .001 lvl (1/1000 chance)

-if relation is .006 can talk about it being borderline, approaching statistical significance

FOR EXAM: define statistical significance, name a nominal level test, describe the logic

 

Using and Abusing the Chi Square Test

 

  • Chi Square assumes that the researcher has hypothesized a relationship in advance.

 

  • Chi Square assumes that the sample was selected randomly. (non-zero chance of inclusion)

 

  • Chi Square assumes that no more than 25 percent of the cells have an expected frequency of less than five. More of an issue if it appears to be significant, must alert reader of the problem.

 

  • the larger the number of cases, the larger Chi Square will be since the adjustment for sample size is only partial. This is as it should be since a larger sample reduces the risk of Type I error. BUT this means that Chi Square should NEVER be used to draw conclusions about the strength of the relationship between IV and DV (since trivial relationships will attain statistical significance if the sample is large enough). Cannot compare size of chi square from one table to another

 

  • a non-significant Chi Square does NOT mean that our sample is unrepresentative. What it usually means is that the relationship we have observed is so weak that it could easily have occurred by chance.

Topic Fifteen: Statistics — Nominal-Level Measures of Association

Overview

What is a Measure of Association?

What are PRE-Based Measures of Assssociation?

Calculating Lambdaa

Interpreting Lambdaa

Why Lambdaa can be misleading

 

What is a Measure of Asssociation?

 

A measure of association (or correlation coefficient) is a single number that summarizes the degree of association between two variables.

 

There is a wide range of measures available for describing how strongly two variables are related. Some differ in their basic approach, but even when the basic approach is similar, measures may differ with respect to:

 

  • the type of data for which they are appropriate
  • their computational details

 

This means that different measures of association are not directly comparable. Never compare how strong different relationships are unless the same measure of association has been used.

 

What are PRE-Based Measures of Association?

 

The logic of proportional reduction in error (PRE) provides an intuitive approach to measuring association. It involves asking: how much does knowing the values of cases on the independent variable help us improve our ability to predict their values on the dependent variable?

 

If two variables are perfectly related, knowing a case’s value on the IV will enable us to predict its value on the DV with complete accuracy. Conversely, if two variables are completely unrelated, knowing the value of a case on the IV will be no help at all in predicting its value on the DV.

 

If two variables are partially related, knowing the value of a case on the IV will be some help in predicting its value on the DV. PRE-based measures enable us to summarize that improvement in predictive ability.

 

Calculating Lambdaa I

 

Lambdaa is a PRE-based measure of association that is appropriate when one or both variables are measured at the nominal level.

 

Lambdaa measures how much our predictive ability is improved by knowing the values of cases on the IV. It ranges in value from .00 (no improvement) to 1.00 (perfect predictability).

If you had to guess how any one person voted, your best guess would be the modal category (Liberal).

And if you had to make the same guess for every person, you would make the fewest errors if you always guessed the modal category.

-single # that summarizes degrees of correlation btwn 2 variables

-many diff variables of association: conceptualize in different ways. Cannot compare different measures of association.

-widely used. Employ logic that is very direct literal interpretation

-lamda a = asymetrical lamda

-lamda is attractive measure of association b/c it is easily readable. Don’t want to take it that literally, not strong relationship til .50

 

Lamda = fi-fd/n-fd

 

Where fi = maximum frequency w/in each subclass or category of the IV

Fd= maximum frequency in the totals of the DV

N = number of cases

 

Interpreting Lambdaa

 

The value of Lambdaa depends on which variable is used as the predictor variable—the column variable or the row variable.

 

Lambdaa is asymmetric Lambda (hence the subscript), meaning that it is used when we want to predict the values of one variable based on the values of a second variable. There is also symmetric Lambda which is used when we want to summarize the degree of mutual predictability between two variables (how much does our predictive ability improve if we use each variable to predict the other?)

 

SPSS provides all three Lambdas—so be sure to choose the asymmetric Lambda that corresponds to your DV.

 

Why Lambdaa can be misleading

Lambdaa will always be zero if the modal value is the same for all categories of the IV.

-be skeptical if get .00. If modal category is the same for categories of the DV, lamda will be .00. statistic no longer giving appropriate distribution of variables.

 

If the modal value is the same for all categories of the IV, then Cramer’s V will be an appropriate measure to use for nominal-level relationships. Cramer’s V is based on the logic of Chi Square (i.e. it is not a PRE-based measure). It adjusts Chi Square to minimize the effects of sample size and distributional freedom(the more cells in a table, the more opportunities there are to differ from population) and to constrain the coefficient to range between .00 and 1.00.

-cannot give literal interpretation of cramer’s v. only gains meaning when comapred to diff tables & strength of association

-cannot compare cramer’s v and lamda

-not a PRE based measure.

 

-arrange data to get initial visual impression. Can create rank-ordering (used w/ordinal variable w/ large # of possible values. Very few cases w/ same values) or cross tabulation/contingency table. Btwn 3 & 7 values.

Topic Sixteen: Statistics — Ordinal-Level Measures of Association

Overview

Creating a cross-tabulation

Measuring association at the ordinal level

The logic of PRE at the ordinal level

Calculating Gamma

Why Gamma can be misleading

Ordinal measures of association: Tau

Choosing a measure of association

 

Creating a Cross-Tabulation I

 

The first step in describing a relationship between two variables is to arrange the data so that you can get an initial visual impression of whether there is a relationship or not. With ordinal-level data, there are two methods for doing this:

  • rank orders are used when there are few cases having the same value (i.e. when there are few “ties”).
  • cross-tabulations are used when there are many ties and/or when both variables have only a small number of possible values.

When cross-tabulating ordinal variables, it is important that the values of both variables be listed in the same order (e.g. from low to high, from weak to strong, etc.).

 

The best general indication of a relationship in a cross-tabulation between two ordinal variables is a consistent increase in the %s in one direction across the top row and in the opposite direction across the bottom row. Pattern where % increase in the top & bottom row. Do they increase in opposite directions? If so, relationship.

-always compare across rows

-focus on the gap, but not to the exclusion of what happens btwn the endpoints. Have to see a steady pattern on incrase.

 

 

Measuring Association at the Ordinal Level

 

Having checked that Chi Square is statistically significant (i.e. the significance level is .05 or less), the next step is to calculate a measure of association.

 

Measures of association at the ordinal level differ from measures of association at the nominal level in ranging from –1.00 to +1.00 (instead of .00 to 1.00).

 

A negative coefficient indicates that cases with high values on the IV tend to have low values on the DV (and vice versa). This indicates that there is a negative relationship between the IV and the DV.

 

A positive coefficient indicates that cases with high values on the IV also tend to have high values on the DV (and vice versa). This indicates that there is a positive relationship between the IV and the DV.

 

The Logic of PRE at the Ordinal Level I

 

-Gamma is an ordinal measure of association that uses the logic of proportional reduction in error.

-Association is still treated as a matter of predictability, but the nature of the predictions changes because we have ordered categories.

-With ordinal data, we are interested in measuring how much knowing the relative position (or ranking) of a pair of cases on the IV will help us to improve our ability to predict their relative position (or ranking) on the DV.

 

The Logic of PRE at the Ordinal Level II

 

There are 2 conditions under which the ranking of a pair of cases will be perfectly predictable:

  • if all the cases are ranked in exactly the same order on both variables (perfect agreement) i.e. cases that have low values on the IV all have low values on the DV, etc.
  • if all the cases are ranked in exactly the opposite order on both variables (perfect inversion) i.e. cases that have low values on the IV all have high values on the DV, etc.

 

In either case, we can predict the relative position of a pair of cases on the DV from their relative position on the IV with perfect accuracy.

 

The degree of predictability (or association) is a function of how close the rankings on the two variables are to either perfect agreement or perfect inversion. Both situations represent perfect association—the only difference lies in the direction of the association.

 

Calculating Gamma I

 

We use probabilistic logic to calculate and interpret Gamma.

-If two variables are in perfect agreement, the probability of drawing a positive pair (a pair of cases ranked in the same order on both variables) will be 100%:

-If two variables are in perfect inversion, the probability of drawing a negative pair (a pair of cases ranked in the opposite order on both variables) will be 100%:

-If two variables are totally unrelated, the probability of drawing a positive pair will equal the probability of drawing a negative pair.

 

In order to calculate the chance of drawing positive and negative pairs, we have to count the total number of positive and negative pairs.

 

To compute the number of positive pairs, begin with the cell in the upper leftmost corner and multiply it by the sum of the frequencies in all the cells below and to the right. Cells below will have higher values on the DV and cells to the right will have higher values on the IV. Repeat for every cell that has cells below and to the right:

 

To compute the number of negative pairs, begin with the cell in the upper rightmost corner and multiply it by the sum of the frequencies in all the cells below and to the left. Cells below will have higher values on the DV and cells to the left will have lower values on the IV. Repeat for every cell that has cells below and to the right:

 

Interpreting Gamma

 

If positive pairs predominate, Gamma will be positive. If negative pairs predominate, Gamma will be negative.

 

Gamma is literally interpreted as indicating the probability of correctly predicting the order of a pair of cases on the DV once we know their order on the IV, ignoring ties. Still using the logic of guessing.

 

The size of the coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship, while the sign (positive or negative) indicates the direction of the relationship. Strength of association. Clsoer to 1 = stronger.

 

Why Gamma can be misleading

In calculating Gamma, we ignore cases that have the same value on one or both variables (‘ties’). Cases that have the same value on one variable, but a different value on the other variable violate the notion of association. Ignoring these cases causes Gamma to overstate the degree of association.

 

Ordinal Measures of Association: Tau

 

Because Gamma can be inflated, it is preferable to use Tau. Tau does take into account cases that are tied on one variable, but not on the other (cases that are tied on both variables are consistent with the notion of association).

 

Like Gamma, Tau ranges in value from –1.00 to +1.00

 

Taub is used when both variables have the same number of values (i.e. the table is symmetrical, with an equal number of columns and rows).

 

Tauc is used when one variable has more values than the other variable (i.e. the table is asymmetrical, with an unequal number of columns and rows).

 

[There is also a Taua but this is not used with cross-tabulations since it assumes that there are no ties.]

-only use if both measures are ordinal (exception: dichotomous variables can be treated as ordinal, evne interval)

 

Left-right self-placement x support for free enterprise:

Gamma = .37  Taub = .23

 

Choosing a Measure of Association I

 

Gamma and Tau should only be used when both variables are measured at the ordinal level unless one or both variables is a dichotomy.

 

A dichotomous variable has only 2 categories (e.g. sex). As such, it satisfies the requirements for both interval-level (there is only one interval which, by definition, is equal to its self) and ordinal-level (the ordering is arbitrary but neither ordering violates the mathematical requirements) measurement

 

IV                    DV                   Measure of Association

 

nominal           nominal                       Lambda or Cramer’s V

nominal           dichotomy

nominal           ordinal

dichotomy       nominal

ordinal            nominal

 

ordinal            ordinal            Gamma or Tau

dichotomy       ordinal

ordinal            dichotomy

dichotomy       dichotomy

 

Topic Seventeen: Statistics — Examining the Effects of Control Variables

Overview

 

How are controls introduced?

Interpreting control variables

Sources of Spuriousness

Intervening variables

Conditional variables

Replicated relationships

 

How are controls introduced?

 

It is never enough to demonstrate covariation. We must always go on to examine the effect of other variables (‘control variables’) that might plausibly alter or even eliminate the observed covariation.

 

In order to determine whether some third variable affects the observed relationship between the IV and DV, we must be able to hold the effects of that variable constant and then re-examine the relationship between the IV and the DV. Note: the focus is always on what happens to the IV – DV relationship.

 

With nominal variables or with ordinal variables that have only a small number of possible values, we use a physical control i.e. we divide our cases into groups based on their values on the control variable and then re-examine the original relationship separately for each of these groups, using a series of cross-tabulations.

 

Interpreting control variables

 

When you do this, one of three things can happen to the original relationship:

  • it can stay more or less the same in every category of the control variable (replicated relationship).
  • it can weaken or disappear in every category of the control variable (spuriousness OR intervening variable). Gap smaller, measure of association smaller, no sig chisq
  • it can weaken in some categories and strengthen in others or even assume different forms in different categories of the control variable (conditional variable).

Note: there is no statistical technique for distinguishing between an intervening variable and a source of spuriousness. You have to decide on substantive grounds which interpretation makes the most sense. Usually, this is decided on the basis of time order. Draw chart.

-data analysis is not just a mechanical process -> process of imparting meaning to data by interpreting them.

 

Source of Spuriousness I

 

-The first priority must be to test for spuriousness i.e. we must ask whether there is some common factor that could cause both the IV and the DV.

 

-If the relationship between the IV and the DV is spurious, the relationship will weaken or disappear when we control for the source of spuriousness variable (remove the common cause and the observed covariation will weaken or disappear).

-If your relationship turns out to be spurious, you should make the source of spuriousness variable your new independent variable and then test the relationship between this variable and your dependent variable. You will then test for the effects of two plausible control variables.

 

If the original relationship weakens in every category of the control variable, but there is still some relationship in every category (i.e. the significance level is .05 or less and the measure of association is close to .20), you have a partial source of spuriousness. In this case, you do not need to change your hypothesis because there is still some covariation even controlling for the common cause.

 

If there is more than one plausible source of spuriousness, you must test for these additional possibilities.

 

Intervening Variable I

 

If your relationship is not spurious (or is only partially spurious), the next priority is to test for a plausible intervening variable.

 

Intervening variables are variables that mediate the relationship between the IV and the DV. An intervening variable provides an explanation of why the IV affects the DV.

 

The intervening variable corresponds to the assumed causal mechanism. The DV is related to the IV because the IV affects the intervening variable and the intervening variable, in turn, affects the DV.

To identify plausible intervening variables, ask yourself why you think the IV would have a causal impact on the DV.

 

Ex) The relationship has weakened in both categories of the control variable, but it has not disappeared. This indicates that ideology is a partial intervening variable (it only explains some of the observed relationship between religious affiliation and vote choice).

 

Conditional variables I

 

Once we have eliminated plausible sources of spuriousness and verified the assumed causal mechanism, we need to specify the conditions under which the hypothesized relationship holds.

 

Ideally, we want there to be as few conditions as possible because the aim is to come up with a generalization.

 

Conditional variables are variables that literally condition the relationship between the IV and the DV by affecting:

(1) the strength of the relationship between the IV and the DV (i.e. how well do values of the IV predict values of the DV?) and

(2) the form of the relationship between the IV and the DV (i.e. which values of the DV tend to be associated with which values of the IV?)

 

Conditional variables II

To identify plausible conditional variables, ask yourself whether there are some sorts of people who are likely to take a particular value on the DV regardless of their value on the IV.

Note: the focus is always on how the hypothesized relationship is affected by different values of the conditional variable

 

There are basically three types of variables that typically condition relationships:

(1) variables that specify the relationship in terms of interest, knowledge or concern.

(2) variables that specify the relationship in terms of place or time.

(3) variables that specify the relationship in terms of social background characteristics.

 

Replicated relationship II

 

What matters is what happens to the differences across the columns. Even though the cell percentages may change, the impact of the IV on the DV will be similar to the uncontrolled relationship if the gap across the columns in each control table remains more or less the same (and the measure of association indicates that the strength of the relationship is more or less similar)

 

Topic Eighteen: Validity and Reliability

Overview:

Validity versus reliability

Systematic versus random errors

Face validity

Criterion-related validity

Construct validity

Test-retest reliability

Parallel-forms reliability

Internal consistency

Sub-sample reliability

 

-central issue: how well do empirical indicators respond to abstract concepts

-can we build into our data collection a provision to collect info that we need to persuade that our measures work.

Validity versus reliability

 

Validity—are we measuring what we think we are measuring? i.e. does our indicator really represent our target concept?

 

Reliability—does our measurement process assign values consistently? i.e. if we repeated our research, would we assign the same values to the same observations?

 

Validity and reliability are jeopardized by measurement errors.

 

Measurement errors are differences in the values assigned to observations that are attributable to flaws in the measurement process i.e. they do not reflect authentic differences between observations in the property we want to measure

 

Measurement errors can be either systematic or random.

Systematic versus Random Errors I

 

Systematic errors occur when our indicator is picking up some other property, in addition to the property it is supposed to measure. This type of error systematically affects our results. Constant. Biasing effect is predictable, once identified.

 

Random errors are chance fluctuations in the measurement results that do not reflect true differences in the property being measured. These errors occur as a matter of chance and affect each observation differently.

-can be due to transient aspect of case being measured

–could be due to measurement situation (interviewer has an off day)

-measurement procedure itself that varies from case to case

-b/c of vague/ambiguous instructions

-random b/c amount of error varies from one case to another in unpredictable ways

Systematic versus random errors II

 

Random errors make our measures unreliable. If a measure is unreliable, it cannot be valid because at least some of the differences in the values assigned to observations will result from random measurement errors.

 

BUT a reliable measure is not necessarily valid. This is because reliability is only threatened by random error—whereas validity is threatened by both random error and systematic error.

 

Systematic errors are no threat to reliability precisely because they are systematic i.e. they consistently affect our measurement results. Could, after the fact, introduce a control variable to deal with the bias from systematic error.

 

Content Validity I—Face Validity

Content validity is concerned with the substance, or content, of what is being measured. It addresses directly the question: are we measuring what we think we are measuring?

 

Validity is the basic problem of social science.

 

To have content validity, a measure must be both appropriate and complete.

 

If we wanted to measure public education in cities: we may try to count the number of teachers in city schools, this is inappropriate.

 

Face validity involves the criterion of appropriateness—can knowledgeable people be persuaded that the measure is an appropriate indicator of the target concept? Ask experts. Some measures are based on such direct observation of the behaviour in question that there seems to be no reason to question their validity. Ex: state law to present license of compliance visibly. We shouldn’t trust the face value alone.

 

Potential problems:

-the method relies on subjective judgment

-there are no replicable rules for evaluating the measure (can’t say how expert reached their decision)

Intersubjectivity enhances confidence in the face validation approach.

 

Content validity II—sampling validity

Sampling validity involves the criterion of completeness—does our measure represent the full range of meaning on the target concept?

 

This approach assumes that every concept has a theoretical universe of content consisting of all the things that could possibly be observed about the property it represents. A valid measure is one that constitutes a representative sample of this universe of content.

 

Potential problems:

  • the method relies on subjective judgment
  • there are no replicable rules for evaluating the measure (nominal definitions are crucial for this reason)
  • it is difficult to specify the universe of content of abstract concepts
  • it is even harder to represent that content completely/adequately

 

Criterion-related validity I (pragmatic, empirical, predictive, concurrent)

 

Criterion-related validity assumes that an indicator is valid if there is an empirical correspondence between the results obtained using the indicator and the results obtained using another indicator of the same concept that is already known (or assumed) to be valid.

 

Ex: street light test: multiple indicators improve the chance of validity.

 

There are two types of criterion-related validity:

 

  • concurrent criterion-related validity simply involves comparing the results with those obtained using another indicator.
  • predictive criterion-related validity involves asking how well the indicator predicts a behavior that is known to reflect the concept being measured e.g. how well do LSAT scores predict performance in law school?

 

The emphasis in both cases is on the correlation between our indicator and the criterion (hence the alternative names: pragmatic validity and empirical validity).

Criterion-related validity II

 

This form of validation raises three questions:

  • why not use the criterion instead? In some cases, the criterion may be impractical or expensive to use. In other cases, we need to measure the property before we make use of the criterion (i.e. we want to measure aptitude for law school before we admit students).
  • how do we know the criterion is valid?
  • what if we lack a valid criterion? This is typically the case unless we are engaged in applied policy research.

 

Construct Validity I

 

Construct validity involves relating an indicator to an overall theoretical framework.

 

Based on our theoretical understanding of the concept we want to measure and on previous research, we postulate various relationships between that concept and other specified concepts. The indicator is valid to the extent that we observe the predicted relationships.

 

These relationships are in addition to the ones that are the focus of our research.

 

e.g. we want to test a theory about the relationship between political efficacy and political engagement. We might try to validate our indicators of efficacy by seeing whether they produce the relationship we would expect with indicators of education (i.e. the more education people have, the more efficacious they will feel).

 

This is known as external validation.

-different from criterion-related (looking at your measure & another measure of same concept) here (looking at your measure & other measure of different concept)

 

Construct validity II

 

The process of external validation is very much like testing a hypothesis. The problem is that, like any hypothesis, the predicted relationships may not hold. This could mean any one of three things:

  • Our indicator is not valid
  • the theoretical framework that generated the predicted relationships is flawed.
  • the indicators of the other concepts were not valid.

 

The solution is to conduct multiple tests. If most of the predicted relationships hold, we can be confident that our indicator is valid. If most of the predicted relationships fail to hold, we would have to conclude that our indicator is the problem.

 

Construct validity III

Convergent-discriminant validity (also known as the multi-trait multi-method matrix method) is a more sophisticated form of construct validity.

 

Convergent validity (also known as internal validity) means that different methods of measuring the same concept should produce similar results.

 

Discriminant validity means that two indicators should not correlate highly if they measure different properties, even if they involve similar methods of measurement.

 

Construct Validity IV

 

The convergent-discriminant approach requires indicators of at least two different concepts, each measured using at least two different methods. When these indicators are correlated, we should observe the following pattern:

Concept A/Method 1   Concept B/Method 2

 

Concept A/Method 2 high correlation           low correlation

Concept B/Method 1 low correlation            high correlation

 

This approach is difficult to implement because we typically cannot use more than one method for measuring our concepts. However, this approach can be approximated by comparing alternative indicators of different concepts. (Concept A/Indicator 1, etc.)

 

NOTE: we cannot always be certain that our measures of the key concept are valid, and we should therefore always be careful about concluding that a measure is valid or invalid from any one test of validity.

 

Assessing Reliability (don’t need to know)

 

Assessing reliability is basically an empirical matter.

 

The best way to achieve high reliability is to be aware of the sources of unreliability and to guard against them.

 

There are four major ways of assessing reliability.

The test-retest method

 

The test-retest method corresponds most closely to the conceptual definition of reliability i.e. if we repeat the measurement process on the same cases, will we get the same results?

 

This method is intuitively appealing, but it has important drawbacks:

-it may not be feasible

-there is the risk of reactivity e.g. in a survey, respondents may consciously strive to appear consistent in their responses (over-estimate reliability); respondents may pay less attention the second time around (under-estimate reliability); the fact of being interviewed the first time may change responses the second time around (under-estimate reliability).

– real change may occur in the cases being measured between the first and the second measurement period (under-estimate reliability).

 

This approach is most appropriate with non-reactive methods of data collection, like content analysis.

The alternative forms (or parallel forms) method

 

The alternative forms (or parallel forms) method involves using two parallel forms of the measuring instrument on the same cases.

 

The advantages of this method are:

 

  • there is no reactivity problem because no case is measured twice using the same measuring instrument.
  • there is no time elapse between the measurements so there is no confounding effect from possible changes in the cases themselves.
  • feasibility

 

The disadvantages of this method are:

-difficulty of ensuring that the two forms are parallel.

-difficulty of coming up with two measuring instruments.

 

The alternative forms (or parallel forms) method

A variant of this method is the split-half method. It avoids the problem of having to come up with two parallel forms. The researcher comes up with a single measuring instrument with twice as many items as needed. Reliability is assessed by randomly dividing the items in half and comparing the results. If the randomization works properly, the two halves should be equivalent.

 

The disadvantages of this method are:

  • the difficulty of coming up with sufficient items.
  • making sure that the two halves really are equivalent (randomization will not ensure equivalence if the number of items involved is small).
  • different splits may lead to different assessments of reliability.

The internal consistency method

 

The most common approach to assessing internal consistency is the calculation of coefficient Alpha. This coefficient is based on the average correlation for every possible combination of items into two half-tests. Items that produce low correlations are deleted.

 

Possible values of coefficient Alpha range from 0 to 1. An Alpha of 0.8 is conventionally taken as denoting an acceptable level of reliability

 

This method shares the advantages of the alternative forms method while avoiding the problem of having to determine equivalence.

The Subsample method

 

The subsample method is used in survey research. It involves dividing the sample randomly into several subsamples. If the subsamples are large enough, randomization should ensure that the subsamples are similar in composition. The same items are administered to each subsample and reliability is assessed by the similarity of responses across the subsamples.

 

The advantages of this method are:

  • there is no reactivity problem because no case is measured twice using the same measuring instrument.
  • there is no time elapse between the measurements so there is no confounding effect from possible changes in the cases themselves.
  • no need to come up with twice as many items as needed.

The disadvantages are:

  • a large sample size is required in order for randomization to produce equivalent subsamples.

 Topic 19: Scaling

Overview

What is scaling?

Five criteria for assessing scales

Likert scaling

Guttman Scaling

 

What is scaling?

 

Scaling involves rank-ordering individuals in terms of whether they possess more (or less) of the target property e.g. alienation, political interest, authoritarianism

We’re trying to assign a single representative value or score to a complex attitude or behaviour.

 

Ex: College student might be judged on a myriad of possible levels.

 

The individual’s score on the scale is determined by his or her responses to a series of questions, each of which provides some indication of the individual’s relative alienation, political interest, etc.

 

Combining items to form a scale serves two important functions:

  • reduces measurement error and thus enhances reliability and validity. A single item may produce idiosyncratic results and/or capture only a limited aspect of the target property
  • simplifies data analysis

-scale is measuring instrument, therefore must remember properties of good measures

 

Ex: The Cubans are evil and cannot be trusted: need to be more specific in statesments.

 

Five criteria for assessing scales

  • unidimensionality—the scale should measure one property and one property only
  • linearity and equal intervals—increasing scores should correspond to increasing amounts of the target property and the scores should be based on interchangeable units
  • reliability—the scale should assign values consistently
  • validity—the scale should measure the target property
  • reproducibility—knowing an individual’s total score should enable us to predict correctly which items s/he agreed with and which items s/he disagreed with

 

Likert scaling I

 

Likert’s primary concern was unidimensionality.

 

He eliminated the need for judges (as required by Thurstone’s method) by getting respondents in a pilot sample to place themselves on an attitude continuum running from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree” on a series of statements relating to the attitude to be measured.

 

Likert scaling requires a pool of attitude statements, some indicating a favourable attitude and some indicating an unfavourable attitude—but none worded so blandly that almost everyone would agree or so extremely that almost everyone would disagree.

 

These statements are administered to a pilot sample of 100 or more respondents who are similar to those who will be participating in the survey proper. Each respondent is asked to indicate how strongly s/he agrees or disagrees with each statement.

 

Each respondent’s responses are scored. Scores typically range from 1 to 5 (more complex scoring schemes have been shown to possess no advantages). The researcher has to decide whether ‘1’ indicates a very favourable attitude or a very unfavourable attitude. It does not matter as long as the scoring is consistent.

 

If ‘5’ indicates a very favourable attitude, strongly agreeing with a favourable statement is scored ‘5’ and so is disagreeing with an unfavourable statement.

 

Once the individual responses have been scored, a total score is computed for each respondent by simply adding up the scores for each statement (hence the alternative name of summated rating scale). If there are 20 statements, possible scores will range from 20 to 100.

Likert scaling III

 

The next step is to perform an item analysis to determine which are the best items to retain in the final scale. The purpose of this analysis is to ensure unidimensionality. There are three different ways to do this:

  • correlate each statement with a reliable criterion that is known or assumed to reflect the target attitude and retain those statements that produce the highest correlations. Such external criteria are typically not available.
  • internal consistency method—for each statement, correlate the score with the respondent’s total score minus the score for that statement. Retain those statements that produce the highest correlations. Factor analysis (correlate every item with every other tieam. Search for measurs that intercorrelate highly) offers a more sophisticated way of ensuring internal consistency

 

-Both ways of ensuring internal consistency have been criticized for violating the assumptions underlying the statistical methods employed (i.e. using ratio-level methods with ordinal-level data)

  • index of item discrimination—retain those statements that best distinguish between respondents scoring in the top 25% and respondents scoring in the bottom 25%. If respondents with high scores and respondents with low scores respond similarly to a given statement, it cannot be measuring the same attitude as the statements as a whole.

 

-Once the statements have been selected, the scale is administered to respondents in the survey proper and their total scores are calculated. Scores are typically averaged in order to yield a scale that runs from 1 to 5 (purists use the median score since the level of measurement is only ordinal).

 

Advantages of Likert scales:

  • reliability—respondents like the format and find it easier to answer when they can qualify their agreement or disagreement. Perform consistently
  • ease of construction
  • unidimensionality—if the statements are internally consistent and/or discriminate among respondents, it is likely that they are all measuring the same attitude.

 

Disadvantages

-lack of reproducibility—the same total score (or average score) can be obtained in many different ways. Two respondents may have the same total score and yet have answered quite differently

-unidimensionality is no guarantee of validity.

-lack of equal intervals—this criticism is questionable since it is unrealistic to think that we could come up with equal ‘units’ of alienation, interest, authoritarianism, etc.

-measuring the same thing, but not necessarily the target property

 

Guttman scaling I

 

In Guttman scaling, the twin concerns are achieving unidimensionality and reproducibility. Reproducibility means that we can predict a respondent’s responses to individual scale items knowing only his or her total score

Specifically, Guttman scaling enables us to predict each respondent’s responses to individual items with no more than 10% error for the sample as a whole.

 

The items that comprise a Guttman scale have the properties of being ordinal and cumulative. (can rank order in terms of having more or less of the property)

 

The scale is like a ladder—if someone has reached a higher rung, we can be fairly sure that they have climbed the lower rungs as well. Similarly, if the respondent says ‘yes’ to an item that indicates more of the property being measured, we can be reasonably confident that s/he will also have said ‘yes’ to all of the items that indicate less of the property.

-aim for somewhat equal intervals, avoid a big leap.

 

Guttman scaling II

 

Creating a Guttman scale involves using scalogram analysis to test a set of items for scalability. Scalogram analysis enables us to see how far our items and people’s responses to them deviate from perfect reproducibility. Scalability is indicated by a coefficient of reproducibility of .90 or higher.

 

It involves arranging and re-arranging both the items and the respondents in a table. The items are ordered across the top of the table from most to least according to the number of ‘yes’ responses they received. Respondents are ordered down the side of the table from most to least according to how many ‘yes’ answers they gave. Software is available for this purpose.

Guttman scaling II

 

The aim is to achieve a triangular pattern:

Items that produce too many deviations from these patterns are dropped and so are redundant items (i.e. items that do not lead to greater differentiation among respondents). Also dropped are items to which almost everyone said ‘yes’ (or almost everyone said ‘no’) to guard against inflated estimates of reproducibility.

 

If we have a large sample of respondents, we should randomly divide the sample into subsamples and repeat the scalogram analysis for each subsample to check for consistency.

 

Advantages of Guttman scaling:

  • while there is no guarantee of unidimensionality, it is likely that items that meet the test of scalability are measuring the same property.
  • reproducibility is high by definition.
  • produces short but highly effective scales.
  • can be used to scale behaviours and events (e.g. political participation, acts of international aggression) as well as attitudes.

Disadvantages

-may be impossible to achieve an acceptable level of reproducibility.

-items may scale in a pilot study but not in the survey proper. Not all areas of study will yield an acceptable Guttman’s scale.

Topic 20:Designing a sample

Overview

Probability versus non-probability sampling

Simple random samples

Systematic random samples

Proportionate stratified random samples

Disproportionate stratified random samples

Multi-stage random cluster samples

Convenience samples

Purposive samples

Quota samples

Probability versus non-probablity sampling

 

In probability (or random) sampling, every member of the population has a known and non-zero probability of being included in the sample.

 

In non-probability (or non-random) sampling, there is no way of specifying the probability of inclusion and there is no assurance that every member of the population has at least some probability of inclusion.

 

Probability sampling has two crucial advantages:

-it avoids conscious or unconscious bias on the researcher’s part because the research has no say in deciding which cases get included

-it allows us to use inferential statistics to estimate the likelihood that our sample results differ from those we would have observed if we had studied the entire population.

Despite these advantages, non-probability sampling is used when:

  • the advantages of convenience and economy outweigh the risk of having an unrepresentative sample. Short notice.
  • no population list or surrogate population list is available. Can only do probability if access to full population list.

 

Simple random samples

 

Simple random sampling is the most basic probability sampling design and forms the basis for more complex designs.

 

Simple random sampling gives every member of the population an equal probability of inclusion and gives every possible combination (of the desired sample size) of members of the population an equal probability of inclusion.

 

For a small population, a simple random sample can be drawn using the lottery method. For larger samples, a random number generator is used.

 

Disadvantages:

  • can produce extreme samples (e.g. only the rich, only the poor) because every possible combination of people has an equal probability of inclusion. This is improbable, but it is not impossible.
  • tedious and time-consuming unless a population list is available in an electronic format.

Systematic random samples I

 

Systematic random sampling involves dividing the total population size by the desired sample size to yield the sampling interval (which is conventionally denoted ‘k’). Then, beginning with a randomly selected person from among the first k people, the researcher selects every kth person. Example:

Population size = 10,000   Desired sample size = 500 k = 10,000/500 = 20

The researcher would randomly select one person from among the first 20—say, the 14th person–and then select every 20th person (14, 34, 54, 74, etc.)

 

Provided the first person is selected randomly, there is a priori no restriction on the probability of inclusion.

Systematic random samples II

 

Advantages:

  • less cumbersome than simple random sampling—only one random number is required and thereafter it is simply a matter of counting off every kth
  • reduces the risk of extreme samples since only combinations of people k people apart have an equal probability of inclusion.

Disadvantages

-can produce extreme samples if there is a cyclical order in the population list and this order coincides with the sampling interval.

-Only feasibly with small populations

 

Proportionate stratified random samples I

Proportionate stratified random sampling is used to ensure that key groups within the population are represented in the correct proportion. It provides a better solution to the problem of extreme samples.

 

Instead of sampling the entire population, the population is divided into homogeneous groups, or ‘strata’, and a series of samples is selected, one from each stratum. These samples are then combined to produce a representative sample of the population as a whole.

 

The number of people selected from each stratum is proportional to that stratum’s share of the population. Simple random sampling or systematic random sampling is used to select the samples from the strata and so there is no departure from the principle of randomness

The stratification variables must be:

  • relevant to the phenomenon to be explained i.e. people within strata should be similar with respect to the DV—and people in different strata should differ with respect to the DV.
  • operationalizable—this means that we require information about the value of each person in the population on the stratification variable(s) before conducting our study.

Advantages

  • avoids extreme samples for the characteristics that are used to stratify the population
  • increases the level of accuracy for a given total sample size OR achieves the same accuracy at a lower cost. This follows from the formula that is used to calculate the confidence interval

Stratification reduces variability (S)–and the less variability there is in the population being sampled, the smaller the error term (E) will be. Or, conversely, the less variability there is, the smaller the sample size (N) can be to achieve the same level of accuracy (E)

Disproportionate stratified random samples

 

Disproportionate stratified random sampling is the same as proportionate stratified random sampling except that the research deliberately over-samples some strata and/or under-samples others.

 

This is done for analytical reasons:

  • to facilitate statistical analysis by having an equal number of cases in the different categories of the IV.
  • to ensure sufficient cases for meaningful analysis where a stratum is small but substantively or theoretically important.

By definition, people belonging to some strata have a higher probability of inclusion. This is no problem when the sub-samples are being analysed separately or comparatively. However, if the sub-samples are combined into a single sample, corrective weights must be used ensure proportionality.

 

Multi-stage random cluster samples I

 

All the methods described so far require a complete list of the population. Multi-stage cluster sampling is used when no population list is available (e.g. all university students in Canada, all eligible voters, all Catholics). Sampling proceeds in stage.

 

At the first stage, the researcher randomly selects groupings, or ‘clusters’, of population members (e.g. a university is a ‘cluster’ of university students). At the second stage, the researcher randomly selects people from within the selected ‘clusters’.  So lists only have to be obtained and/or compiled for the selected clust65ers.

 

Depending on the population being sampled, several stages may be involved.

 

e.g. randomly selecting electoral districts, then randomly selecting polling divisions within the selected districts, and finally selecting eligible voters from the selected polling divisions.

 

Or randomly selecting school boards, then randomly selecting schools from within the selected school boards, then randomly selecting students from within the selected schools.

Advantages

  • obviates the need for a complete population list.
  • reduces costs in sampling a geographically scattered population by concentrating interviews within selected localities.

Disadvantages

  • increases the risk of sampling error because each stage has its associated risk of sampling error.

Accuracy can be increased by:

  • increasing the sample size—but there is a trade-off between increasing the number of clusters to be selected and increasing the number of cases to be selected from those clusters.
  • increasing accuracy by reducing variability—i.e. combine stratification with multistage random cluster sampling.

-so far: all avoid bias. Enable to use inferential statistics, can be simple/complex.

 

Convenience samples

 

There are three different basic non-probability sampling designs. In increasing order of desirability, they are: convenience sampling, purposive sampling and quota sampling.

 

Convenience sampling is just what its name implies—the researcher selects whatever people happen to be conveniently available e.g. the first 100 people who agree to be interviewed, students in an introductory psychology class.

 

This method is easy and inexpensive—but it is likely to yield unrepresentative samples. It should only be used (if at all) for pilot studies or for pre-testing questions.

Purposive samples

 

Purposive (or judgmental) sampling offers a better approach. The researcher uses his or her judgement and knowledge of the target population to select the sample, purposively trying to obtain a sample that appears to be representative.

 

With this method, the probability of being included depends entirely upon the judgement of the researcher.

 

In the hands of a skilled researcher, this method has been known to yield surprisingly accurate sample estimates.

Quota samples I

 

Quota sampling is the most sophisticated method of drawing a non-probability sample. The goal is to select a sample that represents a microcosm of the target population.

 

Interviewers are given a quota of individuals to select, specified by attributes such as age, sex, ethnicity, education, and income. They are required to select individuals displaying various combinations of these characteristics in proportion to their share of the population.

Quota sampling II

 

This method is generally superior to convenience or purposive sampling, but it has several limitations:

  • it requires up-to-date and accurate information about the target population.
  • there is ample opportunity for bias—the only constraint is that interviewers fill their quotas. The selected individuals may display the requisite combination of characteristics, but that does not guarantee their representativeness.
  • the number of characteristics that can be taken into account in determining quotas is limited. Say there are four characteristics—sex plus religion (4 categories), ethnicity (3 categories), and education (4 categories). That means 2 x 4 x 3 x 4 = 96 different types of people i.e. it becomes prohibitively expensive to track down people who meet the quota requirements.

 

TOPIC 21 Data Gathering Techniques

Overview:

Basic Ethical Principles

The meaning of informed consent

Why can the principle of informed consent be problematic?

The cost-benefit approach

 

Basic Ethical Principles:

  • There should be no deception involved in the research
  • There should be no harm (physical, psychological or emotional) done to participants.
  • Participation should be voluntary
  • Participation should be based on informed consent.

 

The Meaning of Informed Consent:

Informed consent can be defined as ‘the procedure in which individuals choose whether to participate in an investigation after being informed of facts that would be likely to influence their decision.

 

This definition raises 4 issues:

– Competence – do participants have the mental or emotional capacity to provide consent?

– Voluntarism – are participants in a situation where they can exercise self-determination

– Full information – do participants have the information they need to give informed consent?

– Comprehension – do participants understand the potential risk involved?

 

Why can the principle of informed consent be problematic?

How much information is needed to consent to be ‘informed’?

  • What if it is extremely important that participants not know the true purpose of the study?
  • The trade-off between ethnical considerations and methodological considerate is often cast in terms of a conflict of rights.

Balancing Respect for Human dignity, Free and Informed Consent, Vulnerable people. Privacy and confidentiality, justice and inclusiveness, harms and benefits, minimizing harm May cause embarrassment, loss of trust in social relations, lower self-esteem. There can be cases of risk of physical harm: Rex Brynen interviews people diplomatic in bag for information.

 

The Cost-benefit Approach:

  • The cost-benefit approach involved weighing the potential contribution to knowledge and human welfare against the potential negative effects on the dignity and welfare of the participants.

This approach can be problematic:

  • The ethical issues involved can be subtle, ambiguous and debatable.
  • We are not necessarily weighing predictable costs and benefits but possible costs and benefits.
  • The process of balancing cost and benefits is necessarily subjective and value-laden.

 

Milgram’s obedience to authority: this is the ethical research. It was the research that triggered the ethical questions.

  • Emotional psychological stress shapes people’s actions.
  • Milgram test: if someone gave the wrong answer they were shocked at an incrementally higher rate from shock to shock.

 

TOPIC 22 Observational-Methods

What is observational research?

Some advantages of observational research

The trade-offs involved in observational research

Types of observational research

Other drawback of observational research.

 

What is Observational Research?

  • It is the direct observation of political behaviour as it occurs in the natural setting. The researcher can study the behaviour as it occurs.
  • Observational research differs from other methods, observational research melds data collection and theory generating. The researcher doesn’t come in with carefully formulated hypothesis.
  • Data collection and data analysis are not discrete stages. Instead, the researcher attempts to develop a generalized understanding of an unfolding process over an extended time period, through a blend of induction and deduction.

 

Some advantages of observational research

  • Flexibility – the research can modify the research design in the light of emerging theoretical understandings and/or changes in the situation being studied.
  • Feasibility – no elaborate preparations necessary.
  • Low cost – observational research does not require expensive equipment or staff.
  • Depth of understanding – observational research enable the research to develop a comprehensive and nuanced understanding.
  • External validity – behaviour is studied in its natural setting (minimizes or eliminates artificiality)
  • Contextual understanding – the researcher is able to analyse the context in which behaviour occurs.
  • Immediacy – the research does not have to rely on participants’ recall.

The Trade-Offs involved in observational research

Ethical considerations, reactivity and access.

  • If people know they are being observed, their behaviour may be affected. They may even refuse permission. BUT if they are observed without their permission or under false pretences in order to avoid the reactivity problem and/or solve the access problem, the research becomes ethically problematic.

 

Types of observational research I

  • Covert participant observation is intended to solve both the reactivity problem and the access problem. The researcher is either a genuine participant in what is being observed or pretend to be a genuine participant.
  • The researcher’s true identity is unknown to the other participants. They perceive the researcher to be just another participant BUT:
  • This type of observational study raises significant ethical issues (lack of informed consent, deception, violation of privacy).
  • It does not necessarily solve the reactivity problem (the research’s own behaviour may affect the behaviour under study).
  • There is a risk of getting caught up in the assumed role.

 

Types of observational research II

  • Assuming the role of participant-as-observer is intended to resolve the ethical issue, but poses problem of reactivity.
  • The researchers participates fully in the behaviour under study, but make it clear that he or she is also undertaking research.
  • The difficulty with this type of research is being accepted in this role. Access may be denied.

 

Types of observational research III

  • In the role of observer-as-participant, the researcher identifies him or herself as a researcher and makes no pretence of being a participant.
  • There are still the problems of access and reactivity, but there is less risk of getting caught up in the behaviour that is being observed.
  • Finally, there is the role of complete observer. The researcher observes the behaviour without becoming part of it in any way. Typically, the behaviour is being observe in a setting that is regularly open to the public.
  • This role avoids ethical dilemmas and the problems of access and reactivity. The researcher is less likely to lose his or her scholarly perspective, but is also less likely to develop a full appreciation of the bahviour under study.

 

Other drawbacks of observational research:

  • Unreliability – there are ample opportunities for random error and we cannot be sure that another research observing the same behaviour would draw the same conclusion.
  • Lack of generalizability – because of the personal nature of the observations and the potential for biased ‘samples’
  • Low transmissibility and replicability.

 

Difference btwn inferential & descriptive statistics and example of each

Financial Decision-Making @ the Heart of Business | Forecasting Projects

FORECASTING

Why forecasting is important:

  • Managers use it for future allocations
  • Analysts make forecast to communicate their view of a firm’s prospects
  • Creditors make forecasts in order to determine whether their debtors can repay
  • Investment bankers use it to determine who to engage in hostile takeovers.
Good Forecasts of three core elements:
  • Integrated Forecast: forecast the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statements together; if we assume that growth rates hold for the next 10 years that means we are assuming the asset turnovers are increase substantially as sales are growing.
  • Realistic Assumptions: sales growth, assets growth, asset turnover, debt levels, profit marings should be realistic
  • Robustness: the forecasting process should produce numbers that are not too dependent on a few key assumptions.

EBIT * i-t)

+ Dep

  • DowC

+/- CAPEX

FCF

  • Dangerous to put your work out to the public.
  • Reduce CAPEX. The net impact will have a higher FCF.
  • PP&E does down they are not investing in PP&E.
  • You shouldn’t start with Free Cashflow Assets; we need to come up with free
  • And then see what false.

Maybe we are adopting ratios:

  • Genera Mills; I have historical margins but what are we going to do.
  • If you have 100% mispricing.

Detailed Forecast

  • Forecast detailed line items on income statement and balance sheet
  • Can be tedious
  • Individual ratios can be volatile
  • Many line items may not have a natural “driver”
  • May be essential in settings where condensed forecasting is insufficient –and you care about individual assets/liabilities e.g. credit providers, bankruptcy

Condensed Forecast

  • Forecast condensed income statement and balance sheet
  • Fewer assumptions –can pay attention to each assumption
  • Less volatility
  • Wont work in some settings –as discussed above

Detailed Forecast:

Can be tedious…

Building your Business valuation Forecasts…

Assumption #1: Revenue Growth

Easy to have small growth for example Apple has returned to mean, you might say. That’s a cynical view but it’s a sensible one. Why can’t you have massive growth every year? The answer is that competitors will enter to disrupt the Apple’s of your industry. For example, Samsung phones look a lot like Apple’s. The operating system from Apple with it’s GUI seemed copied by Microsoft.

So, pay attention to recent growth, be aware of mean reversion.

Consider the Macroeconomics in Ontario: the new US tax and economic performance post-2016 election say the Canadian dollar go up.

Consider the Industry and Firm factors: is there a new evolutionary product.

Separate out sales from existing resources and sales from new resources.

When creating your forecast, try to consider the product line channels if the information is available around price and volume but you should look at aggregate sales growth in your analysis.

Assumption #2: Operating Expenses

Operating expenses are in the Income Statement. You need to forecast the operating expenses as a % of the Revenues.

Factors to consider:

So what factors should you consider?

You should look at the expenses ratio: levels and trends.

Expansion in to the new markets should lead to a) an increase in operating expenses. Here you would build a market. You might have to lower prices. Operating expenses then you expect margins to grow through efficient. However, recall that growth does not equal efficiency. Growth is very inefficient.

ROE and ROAs tend to mean revert they are driven by mean reversion in profit margin? Why? Again, competitors and structural changes to the company. Why if the ROE is below-> everything reverts to the mean. Remember that General Motors gave their employees 25% of the company so that they could get the union pensions off their books.

Your analysis may decide to have a more granular approach here ie. Forecast the COGS, SG&A, R&D separately.

Assumption #3: Net Interest Expense

This has nothing to do with revenue – it’s a function of lagged net debt. Pay more attention to recent information – interest rates from 3 to 4 years ago are less relevant. Interest expenses rises. Can a firm have a negative net debt? Apple has negative net debt. They have more cash. Apple can have negative net debt.

Usually a negative interest expense (i.e. income) – can estimate rate.

Assumption #4: Taxes

Examine the tax footnotes in the company Financial Statements. In most cases, can be extrapolated from prior data. Some times, tax rates are “all over the map”.

Remove the impractice of one item that can distort tax rates i.e. non-deductible goodwill impairments. Take a look at the historical analysis.

Assumption #5: Net Operating Working Capital

Operating Working Capital = working capital cash + non-cash current assets – current liabilities. Remember this is an ‘inverse’ turnover ratio – more implies a worsening turnover.

Examine the trend in prior lagged OWV/Sales. What should happen to this ratio if a firm is converting to a Just-In-Time inventory system b) decreases: inventory gets smaller therefore you would expect the efficiency of the firm to increases the FCF.

Negative Operating Working Capital/Sales may not be sustainable. You may need to forecast this ratio to zero and eventually positive.

Net Income

+Interest

+ Depreciation

Change in OWC

CAPEX

= FCF

Assumption 6: Net Long-term Assets

  • Net Longterm Assets = long term assets less depreciation and amortization – Lonterm liabilities not related to debt.
  • Remember this is also an ‘inverse’ turnover ratio more implies a worsening turnover.
  • Examing the trend in prior lagged Net Longterm Assets / Sales
  • What should happen o Net Longterm/Sales if you’re converting bricks and mortar stores to e-retailing:
  • It decrease CAPEX and increases FCF (Free Cash Flows).

Assumption 7: Liabilities

  • Payout Approach : you can calculate retention ratio – incorporating repurchases if necessary.
  • Startup Retention Ratio: retention percentage (a) 100%
  • You should not be chasing dividends. 100% were not paying any dividends what about the mature firms. Mature firms you’d expect 00%
  • What phase is the firm in based on the retention ratio.
  • Balance Sheet: net assets = net capital
  • Set = ShEt – 1 + Forecast Net Income * Retention Ratio.
  • Retention Ratio: is how much….DEFINITION HERE.
  • Payout Ratio = Annual dividend per share/ Net Income
  • Retention Ratio = Retained Earnings/Net Income
  • Retained Earning = – Dividend / Net Income
  • Startups have almost 100% retention ratio!
  • Some will buy into older companies because the dividend payout is usually higher.
  • Debt will be the implicit plug in this model: what if the firm has positive net debt? Maybe something happened. Debt to Equity is D/E More economic intuition in the retention price. You should look at higher growth: pessimistic scenarios our demand film.
  • We will do financial statement analysis

Capital Structure Approach:

Break up Net Assets into Net Debt and Equity using the targeted capital structure. Payout is the implicit plug here.

Sensitivity Analysis

  • Forecasts are based on the expected or most realistic set of assumptions.
  • Important to consider at least two other scenarios:
  • Optimistic scenario – higher growth, lower cost, lower asset ratios;
  • Pessimistic scenarios – lower growth, higher cost, higher asset ratios.
  • Advantage of condensed approach: can focus on some key ratios – sales growth, operating expenses, Net Longterm Assets.

Interpreting Forecasting Financials:

  • Can do ratio analysis as forecasting financials.
  • How well is the firm forecaste to perform?
  • Are assumptions reasonable> trends in longterm ROE – do try to make sense?

Estimate the Free cash Flows from Condensed Forecasts

  • Can one estimate Free Cash Flow? Forecasting is not a science! No kidding. False sense of precision. Paying excessive dividends.
  • Turns out one does not need them as: change Net Longterm Assets = Capex – Depreciation
  • It is easy to express enterprice Fress Cash Flow as follows;
  • FCF = Net inceom + Net Interst * (1-Tax Rate) – change Net Longterm Assets = Change net Operating Working Capital.

Excel for Financial Analysis

Instead of using =Sum(F10,F11) try =+F10+F11. If you want an amount that displays as positive to be negative try =-F13. Let’s say you want to test is your numbers are balance: try the following:

=+F12=’Income Statement’!E18

You are asking Excel to state that =Number equals another number: the output will be true or false. You want to minus 1 when doing the Revenue previous year.

Summary

  • Forecasting is not a science
  • False sense of precision
  • Forecasting is also not an “art”
  • In my opinion, forecasting is educated guesswork
  • A condensed approach allows one to capture most important elements without getting bogged down
  • Forecasts only as good as the assumptions and the underlying analyses
What shareholders have invested in the firm. Expectations operator. Cost of equity capital. What management accomplished. What shareholders expected.

Abnormal Earnings Valuation

Better than Discounted Free Cashflows:

  • Terminal value is misleading and is very sensitive to small changes in assumptions;
  • Current earnings are better predictors of future cash flow than current cash flows numbers
  • DCF ignores accounting numbers; there is an attempt to reverse out the effects of accrual accounting when we calculate free cash flows numbers; DCF completely ignores the balance sheet.
  • Terminal value estimates do not have an economic intuitive; 3% perpetual growth doesn’t really happen in the real world.
  • Negative cash flows happen and yet DCF invariably leaders to a positive terminal value.
  • Circularity of getting the WACC and using WACC to estimate value; which needs free cash flow to equity method.

Abnormal Earnings Valuation the Details

  • Terminal value numbers are smaller part of the valuation, thus reducing the sensitivity to estimate assumptions.
  • Earnings are used instead of cashflows.
  • We use the accounting numbers including the Balance Sheet through Book Value.
  • Uses industry economics the that in the long run profitability tends to converge to an industry level median.
  • Negative earnings are not a problem. Persistent negative earnings will simply mean the firm has negative abnormal earnings.
  • The most common form of AEV is conducted at the EQUITY level. Therefore the problem of circularity is avoided.

Abnormal Earnings How It Works

First what are normal earnings. Those earnings are that are equal between the ROE and the cost of Equity. Return on Equity as a percentage and the Cost of Equity as a percentage. Any earnings above the normal earnings are abnormal earnings. If a firm has a cost of equity of 15% and a book value of equity (BVE) of $1million and a Net Income of $200K, it’s normal earnings are 15%*$1million = $150K and it’s abnormal earnings are then $50K.

Abnormal Earnings should disappear overtime as firms move towards an Industry ROE.

Key Takeaways from “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”

[The following should not be used as the basis for any financial transactions. But this is a synopsis of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. The book is the “cat’s meow” for understanding how Wall Street works. Malkiel’s conclusion is that it makes more sense to invest in an Index (passive investment) in the long run given the underperformance of active investors…I don’t 100% agree or disagree; I’m merely seeking to understand.]

My initial interpretation of this book is that it further strengthens what I have studied in the social sciences (political science, economics, history). The book points out that humans are un-predictable in most instances. Perhaps humans are emotional creatures who occasionally act rationally, but only when they aren’t emotionally attached to the decision. Whether it’s the Berlin Wall coming down, or the Enron financial debacle, predicting future events seems like it would be something tough to do. And of course, humans are beholden to a lot of things that we do not fully understand from blood sugar levels to our daily dosage of mainstream media propaganda. Perhaps the way to predict the markets is still elusive, despite efforts made by various people.” – Professor Nerdster

Chapter 1: The Guide and His Core Idea: Shit is Random

This chapter talks about the qualification of Professor Malkiel as a guide, as well as, about investment and meaning of Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Professor Malkiel validates his expertise based on an impressive career. His first job was as a Market Professional with one of Wall Street’s leading investment firm, then he became an Economist specializing in securities markets and investment behaviour, and lastly he became as a lifelong investor and successful participant in the market. And a Prof at Princeton in New Jersey.

Random Walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on the basis of past actions. When you apply this to the stock market, it means that short-run changes in stock prices cannot be predicted. This splits the professionals from academics and the “pros” have created their own techniques. Market professionals have two techniques: fundamental and technical analysis, while Academics created the “new investment technology theory”. Later on, the two joined forces with the conclusion that the stock market can be predictable somewhat but there are pockets of inefficiency….

Academics today accept what Malkiel is saying in this book: “predicting the future is kinda tough, eh?” Flash back to the professor’s lounge, the top finance professor G at B-school X says  “We need jobs so let’s use complex statistical methods to map out human behaviour and stock performance because, while that only works randomly, humans are emotional after all, we need jobs and we can say ‘it’s a learning tool’ and we can then get paid!” Finance professor Y smiles, “Right, I mean we do not have much predictive power, otherwise we would be working in the industry right?” And everyone laughed because they know that even portfolio managers can’t predict the future mathematically.

Professor Malkiel explains in this chapter that this book is not a book for speculators. He even expounds the difference between investing and speculating distinguishing it from its definition. Investing is a method of purchasing assets to gain profit in the form of reasonably predictable income like dividends, interest, or rentals, and appreciation over the long term. Investing involves time period for the investment return and predictability of the returns while speculation isn’t.

This book is not promising to make you rich but will help nourish and educate you about investing. It even gives a preview of the importance of inflation and gives suggestions that even with inflation, investors should not dismiss the possibility that growth in valuation can be over stated, for example.

Investing requires a lot of work, no mistake about it. You should embrace the fact that investing is fun. It is exciting to see your investment returns and how well they do.

All investment returns are dependent. It’s a gamble, you can only know your success if you have the ability to predict the future.

For pros in the investment community, they use two approaches to asset valuation: the firm-foundation theory or the castle-in-the-air theory. Professor Malkiel explains the difference between the two in this chapter.

The firm-foundation theory argues that each investment has a firm anchor of something called intrinsic value. It means that when market prices fall down, a buying or selling opportunity arises.  He explains that with the use of The theory of Investment Value, wherein they determine the intrinsic value of stock and then use the concept of discounting in the process. Discounting basically involves looking at the income backward rather than seeing how much money you will have in the next year; you look at the money expected in the future and see how much less it is currently worth. This approached is in accordance with John B. Williams’ study. Malkiel even explicates that intrinsic value of a stock is equal to the present or discounted value of all its future dividends. This theory is respectable in academia, taught in the MBA and the CFA and is best with common stocks.

The Castle-in-the-Air Theory of investing concentrates on psychic values. According to John Maynard Keynes, professional investors prefer to devote their energies not to estimate intrinsic values, but rather analyze how the crowd of investors is likely to behave in the future and how they tend to build their dreams: on castles in the air and selling stock to the ‘greater fool’. Keynes also applied psychological principles rather than financial evaluation to study the stock market.

Chapter 2: History Gets Repeated in New Ways All the Time

Greed becomes an essential feature in human history, it’s not a bug but a feature to use computer terminology. People use money in any activity with the assumption that it can reach their dreams. Although, the castle-in-the-air theory can explain such speculative activity, outguessing the reactions of a crowd is a most dangerous game. History does teach this lesson, over and over..

Unsustainable prices may persist for years but eventually, reverse and this reversal is often very sudden. The bigger the activity, the greater the results of the fall of the so-called cloud castle. Only a few ‘builders’ can anticipate and escape without losing a great deal of a money when everything falls apart.

Example of this happening in the past. First, the Tulip-Bulb Mania which is one of the most spectacular get-rich-quick schemes in history. Dutch speculators invested in tulips, expecting to increase their wealth, even selling their personal belongings to obtain what they think/thought was a smart investment, considering offers that are hard to resist that later on lead to deflation which grows at a rapid pace. The end result is that the price of tulips was a lot of wealth.

The key is applying the greater fool principle, all you need is someone more foolish than you to buy the stock you are selling in order for you to make a profit and get out from under the cloud castle when it collapses…hard to time that of course.

In South Sea Bubble there was a lot of prosperity in Britain as they led the world in financial and accounting innovation and also were an island, that was hard to invade etc etc. As an economy improves, the citizenry tend use their money for investment. By greed, companies arise where they fight with each other to prove who is the better investment; giving offers that are hard to resist. Apparently, this lead the South Sea Company to fall like another castle in the air, making the public suffer. To protect them from further abuses, the Parliament passed the Bubble Act that forbids the issuing of stock certificates by companies.

In The Florida Real Estate Craze, Professor Malkiel discusses the US as the land of opportunity. The US continued the British emphasis on freedom and growth. The country had been experiencing incomparable prosperity. Their mood of optimistic and faith in the business led to widespread enthusiasm about real estate and the stock market. But, inevitably the boom ended in 1929. New buyers could no longer be found and prices softened and there was a down turn, suddenly a mortgage is ‘under water’ and it doesn’t look so sharp to invest in all of the sudden…

With Florida’s experience, investors should avoid a similar misadventure on Wall Street. But, Florida is the start of what comes next; stock-market became a national pastime, the market’s percentage increase and the price rises for the major industrial corporations.

Not everybody is speculating in the market, but still, the speculative spirit is as widespread as it is intense. Remember that speculating = gambling. More importantly, stock-market speculation is central to the institutionalization of gambling in Anglo-culture. Unfortunately, there are hundreds of operators glad to help the public to construct their dreams. Manipulation of the stock exchange happens. Example of which is the operation of investment pools where they appoint a pool manager that promises not to double-cross each other through private operations. There is a kick-ass book on this topic call Business Adventures which I will be writing a synopsis of in the future.

Professor Malkiel points out that a study of these events can help equip the investors for personal survival. Losers are those who are unable to resist being carried away. It is not that hard to make money in the market, what is hard is to avoid the temptation of throwing your money into any and all speculative activities. The ability to avoid such mistakes is probably the most important factor in maintaining one’s capital and allowing it to grow. According to Professor Malkiel, the lesson is so obvious and yet so easy to ignore.

Chapter 3: Stock Valuation has been Bullshit for a long time

This chapter discusses the Stock Valuation from the sixties through the nineties involving examples and explanations of certain events.

Professor Malkiel starts by relating certain peculiar events, including when General Electric announced about the diamond that was unsuitable for sale but the shares still rise. He elaborates and cites the growth in stock in the new era where investors created any new offering could increase the valuation and thus the stock price through trading. There is this hilarious pattern from 1959 to 1962 called the of the tronics boom, because the offerings include the word electronics in their title, even though have nothing to do with electronics. The name was the game. This form of manipulation highlights how few investors knew what was really going on and just picked ‘good sounding’ investments.

Synergism is the quality of having two plus two equal five. Thus, two separate companies with earning power which might produce a consolidated higher value. This profitable new creation is often called conglomerate. The merger would allow for the achieving of a greater financial strength and enhances marketing capability. Definitely can work out if executed well and the cultures are similar enough.

In light of this the commandments for Fund Managers are simple: Concentrate your holdings in a few stocks and don’t hesitate to switch the portfolio around if there is more desirable investment appearing on the horizon. Make sure that the market recognizes the beauty of your stock now-not far into the future. Hence, the birth of the so-called concept stock.

He further talks about the Nifty Fifty. This is big capitalization stocks which means that an institution could buy a good-sized position without disturbing the market. The craze ends like all others. The problem is simple, the stocks become overpriced and collapse like any other cloud castle i.e. the greater fools cannot be found.

The Roaring Eighties have its fair share of excesses, and investors paid the price for building their dreams. The decade starts with another new-issue boom.

Professor Malkiel explains the success of this high-technology new-issue, the almost perfect replica of the 1960s episode. For investors, initial public offerings are the hottest game in town. The stocks are not quite ready and needed some development. They encounter significant technological obstacles that hinder the stock’s valuation.

Concepts of Biotechnology Bubble. This technology promises to produce a group of products where the valuation levels of stocks reach previously unknown levels to investors and since biotech companies have no current earnings and little sales, new valuation methods need to be formulated.

The lessons of market history are clear, according to Professor Malkiel. Style and fashions often do play a critical role in pricing. The stock market at times adjusts well to the castle-in-the-air theory. For this reason, the game of investing can be extremely dangerous.

The Nervy Nineties

Japan’s real estate and stock markets is considered one of the most spectacular booms and busts. During their growth, firms often make more money from trading stocks than from producing goods, but the collapse destroys the myth that Japan was different and its asset prices would always rise.

The Internet Craze of the Late 1990s

Stocks for companies “on the Internet” could rise tenfold in a single year, and this fascinated investors. The industry is strongly competitive and investors did not focus on the great risks that small companies may have faced. No one can deny that the Internet is a big deal, that it will enjoy explosive growth, but in a highly competitive industry, there will be many losers and only one victor per vertical (sub-category i.e. Facebook for social media, Google for search etc). Many firms like Pets.com, were too speculative about the potential of increased information access to be profitable, oh and also a bag of dog food is very expensive to mail….

As Professor Malkiel‘s final word for this chapter, it seems that markets at times can be irrational, that we should abandon the firm-foundation theory. The market eventually corrects this irrationality. It eventually sees the true value and main lessons that investors must notice.

Chapter 4: Four Determinants that Affect Share Price

In the first chapter, the firm-foundation theorists viewed the worth of any share as the present value of all dollar benefits the investor expects to be received from it. ‘Present’ means that dollars expected and those anticipated later on must be discounted. In a very real sense, time is money, because if you have the money now you could be earning interest on it.

He even further explains that many corporations preferred to institute stock buy-back programs meaning, those activites tend to increase capital gains and the growth rate of the company’s earnings and stock price. It makes options more valuable.

Professor Malkiel believes there are major four determinants that affect share value. Each determinant has its rule:

The expected growth rate: A rational investor should be willing to pay a higher price for a share, the larger the growth rate of dividends and earnings. A rational investor should be willing to pay a higher price for a share the longer an extraordinary growth rate is expected to last.

The expected dividend payout: A rational investor should be willing to pay a higher price for a share, other things being equal, the larger the proportion of a company’s earnings that is paid out in cash dividends.

The degree of risk: A rational investor should be willing to pay a higher price for a share, other things being equal, the less risky the company’s stock. Risk plays an important role in the stock market. It also affects the valuation of a stock. The more respectable a stock is the less risk it has and the higher its quality. But, Professor Malkiel states that it is impossible to measure the risk. For most investors, you value the stable returns and not speculative hopes.

The level of market interest rates: A rational investor should be willing to pay a higher price for a share, other things being equal, the lower are interest rates.

He further cites that in using and testing these rules there are two Important Caveats or warnings to consider:

Warning 1: Expectations about the future cannot be proven in the present: Predicting future earnings and dividends is dangerous. It requires not only the knowledge and skill but also the intelligence of a psychologist and persuasion sciences. It is extremely difficult to be objective. The point is, no matter what you use for predicting the future, it always rests in part on the uncertain assumption.

Warning 2: Precise figures cannot be calculated from undetermined data: The longer one projects growth, the greater the stream of future dividends. The point is that the mathematical accuracy of a formula is based on the tricky ground of forecasting the future. They are estimates what might happen in the future, and depending on that, you can convince yourself to pay any price you want for a stock.

These rules and caveats were tested where Professor Malkiel cites examples and gives a conclusion that with these, market prices seem to behave in a way,  that can lead to expectation. It is comforting to know that to this extent there is an underlying rationality to the stock market. He attaches an additional caveat: What’s growth for the goose is not always growth for the gander.

Fundamental considerations do have an influence on the market price: the price-earnings multiples are influenced by expected growth, dividend payouts, risk, and the rate of interest. Higher expectations of earnings growth and higher dividend payouts tend to increase price-earnings multiples. Higher risk and higher interest rates tend to pull them down. There is a logic to the stock market. Stock prices tied to have fundamentals but this is easily pulled up and dropped at random. It seems very sensible that both views of security pricing tell us about the actual market behavior: 1) expectations about the future cannot be proven in the present, 2) precise figures cannot be calculated from undetermined date.

Chapter 5: The Weak, Semi Strong and Strong forms of Efficiency

In this chapter, Professor Malkiel starts the discussion about the three versions of random-walk or efficient-market theory. The weak, the semi-strong, and the strong. All these three embrace the general idea that except for long-run trends, future stock prices are difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The weak, you cannot predict future stock prices on the basis of past stock prices; in the semi-strong, you cannot even utilize published information to predict future prices and; in the strong, nothing, can be of use in predicting future prices. He further states that the weak form attacks the technical analysis, and the semi-strong and strong forms argue against many of the beliefs held by those using fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis is the method of predicting the appropriate time to buy or sell a stock using essentially the making and interpreting of charts. The chartists study the past for a clue to the direction of future change. They believe that the market is only 10 percent logical and 90 percent psychological. Fundamental analysis is the technique of applying the principles of the firm-foundation theory to the selection of individual stocks. It takes the opposite of Technical as fundamentalists seek to determine an issue’s proper value.

Principles of Technical Analysis

  1. All information about earnings, dividends, and the future performance of a company is automatically reflected in the company’s past market prices.
  2. Prices tend to move in trends: A stock that is rising tends to keep on rising, whereas a stock at rest tends to remain at rest.

Why is charting supposed to work? Professor Malkiel shares an explanation of why technical analysis/charting is supposed to work: First, it has been argued that the crowd instinct of mass psychology makes it so. When investors see the price of a speculative favourite going higher and higher. Second, there may be unequal access to fundamental information about a company. When some favourable piece of news occurs, it is alleged that the insiders are the first to know and they act, buying the stock and causing its price to rise (insider trading in my opinion).

Why Might Charting Fail to Work? According to Professor Malkiel, first, it should be noted that the chartist buys in only after price trends have been established, and sells only after they have been broken. Second, such techniques must ultimately be self-defeating. As more and more people use it, the value of any technique depreciates.

Chartists now use the services of a personal computer to put their data together. They are now known as Technicians where individuals can easily access the charts for different time periods.

Professor Malkiel illustrates the difference between the technician and the fundamentalist; wherein, the technician is interested only in the records of the stock’s price, while the fundamentalist’s primary concern is with what a stock is really worth; its true value.

Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? There are three potential flaws that the author cites: First, the information and analysis may be incorrect, Second, the security analysts’ estimate of value may be faulty and third, the market may not correct its mistake and the stock price might not converge to its estimated value.

There are rules that are developed using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together:

  1. Buy only companies that are expected to have above average earnings growth for five or more years;
  2. Never pay more for a stock than its firm foundation of value and;
  3. Look for stocks whose stories of anticipated growth are of the kind on which investors can build castles in the air.

Chapter 6: Predicting the Future Using Charts is not too smart…

Professor Malkiel elaborates about Technical Analysis where they build their strategies upon dreams and expect their tools to tell them which castle is being built and how to get in on the ground floor. By stating some examples, Professor Malkiel comes up with two considerations:

  1. after paying transactions costs, the method does not do better than a buy-and-hold strategy for investors, and;
  2. it’s easy to pick on.

The technician believes that knowledge of a stock’s past behavior can help predict its probable future behavior. In other words, the sequence of price changes before any given day is important in predicting the price change for that day. This might be called the wallpaper principle.

Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk?

Professor Malkiel states that this topic, for many people, appears to be nonsense; that even most reader of financial pages can easily spot patterns in the market. The chart seems to display some obvious patterns. He even tries an experiment in which he asked his students to participate a pattern but then reveals that this is derived from random coin tossing. Malkiel’s class trick is to have a chart that looks like a normal stock price chart and even appears to display cycles.

The Author further discusses some tests to elaborate Technical systems more and includes in this chapter some brief details.

The Filter System

Under the popular “filter” system, a stock that has reached a low point and has moved up is said to be in an uptrend. A stock that has reached a peak and has moved down is said to be in a downtrend. This scheme is very popular with brokers, and forms of it have been recommended. This filter method is what lies behind the popular “stop-loss” order favoured by brokers.

The Dow Theory

A great tug-of-war between resistance and support. When the market tops out and moves down, that previous peak defines a resistance area, because people who missed selling at the top will be eager to do so if given another opportunity.

In the relative-strength system, an investor buys and holds those stocks that are acting well, outperforming the general market; The stocks that are poor relative to the market should be avoided or, perhaps, even sold short.

Price-volume systems suggest that when a stock rises on large or increasing volume, there is an unsatisfied excess of buying interest and the stock can be expected to continue its rise; when a stock drops in large volume, the sell signal is given. The investor following such a system is likely to be disappointed in the results.

The past history of stock prices cannot be used to predict the future in any meaningful way. Technical strategies are usually amusing, often comforting, but of no real value. This is the weak form of the random-walk theory. The most common complaint about the weakness of the random-walk theory is based on a distrust of mathematics and a misconception of what the theory means.

Another major advantage according to Professor Malkiel to a buy-and-hold strategy, is when buying and holding enable you to postpone or avoid capital gains taxes. If this buying and holding is suited to your objectives, then it will enable you to save on investment expenses, brokerage charges, and taxes, and at the same time, achieve overall performance that at least as good as that obtainable using technical methods.

Chapter 7: Fundamental Analysis is getting closer to the truth but also sucks

In this chapter, Professor Malkiel mentions how good Fundamental Analysis is through his examples and explanations. He cites two extreme views about the efficacy of fundamental analysis. The view of many is that fundamental analysis is becoming more powerful and skill-based all the time; and, an opposite-extreme view which is taken by much of the academic community but Professor Malkiel points to his view by saying this is somewhat less extreme than that taken by many of the academic. This chapter will also recount the major battle between academics and market professionals.

Forecasting future earnings is the security analysts’ purpose. For professionals, expectation of future earnings is still the most important single factor affecting stock prices. This thinking fails in the academic world. According to them, calculations of past earnings growth are no help in predicting the future growth. If you had known the growth rates of all companies, this will not help you in predicting what growth they would achieve.

He points out that we should not take for granted the reliability and accuracy of any judge, no matter how expert they are. When one considers the low reliability of so many kinds of judgments, it does not seem too surprising that security analysts, with their particularly difficult forecasting job, should be no exception. There are four factors that Professor Malkiel mentions to help explain why security analysts have difficulty in predicting the future: The influence of random events; the creation of dubious reported earnings through creative accounting procedures; the basic incompetence of many of the analysts themselves and; the loss of the best analysts to the sales desk or to portfolio management roles.

Do Security Analysts pick winners? Professor Malkiel narrates that the real test of the analyst lies in the performance of the stocks he recommends. Analyze investment performance, not earnings forecasts.

Can any Fundamental System Pick Winners?

Research has been done on whether above-average returns can be earned by using trading systems based on press announcements of new fundamental information and the answer, according to Professor Malkiel, seems to be clearly “Nope.” Systems are the device in which a news event such as the announcement of an unexpectedly large increase in earnings or a stock split triggers a buy signal.

Many professional investors move money from cash to equities or long-term bonds based on their forecasts of fundamental economic conditions. Several institutional investors now sell their services as asset allocators or market timers. According to Professor Malkiel, trying to do market timing is likely, not only not to add value to your investment program, but to be counterproductive.

Professor Malkiel further explains in this chapter what semi-strong and strong forms of the Random-walk Theory. He says that semi-strong form says that no published information will help the analyst to select undervalued securities while strong form says that absolutely nothing that is known or even knowable about a company will benefit the fundamental analyst.

The random-walk theory does not state that stock prices move aimlessly and erratically and are insensitive to changes in fundamental information, but on the contrary, the point of it is just the opposite: The market is so efficient prices move so quickly when new information arises that no one can buy or sell quickly enough to benefit.

Chapter 8: Modern Portfolio Theory is the latest craze and does work for some

In this chapter, Professor Malkiel narrates that a new strategy is needed, that this is the part of the book that states all about the new investment technology created within the academic world. One insight he shares is the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that is now widely followed on the Street since it is so basic. In this chapter, he further describes the origins and applications of Modern Portfolio theory.

Defining Risk: according to the American Heritage Dictionary, it is the possibility of suffering harm or loss. Academics have accepted the idea that risk for investors is related to the chance of disappointment in achieving expected security returns. Financial risk has generally been defined as the variance or standard deviation of returns. Professor Malkiel also specifies a simple example that will illustrate the concept of expected return and variance and how they are measured. One of the best-documented propositions in the field of finance is that, on average, investors have received higher rates of return for bearing greater risk.

Portfolio theory begins with the assumption that all investors are risk-averse. They want high returns and guaranteed outcomes. The theory tells investors how to combine stocks in their portfolios to give them the least risk possible, consistent with the return they seek. It also gives a definite mathematical justification for the investment that is a sensible strategy for individuals who like to reduce their risks.

The theory was invented in the 1950s by Harry Markowitz. He discovered that portfolios of risky stocks might be put together in such a way that the portfolio as a whole would actually be less risky than any one of the individual stocks in it. The mathematics of modern portfolio theory is challenging; it fills the journals and, incidentally, keeps a lot of academics busy.

From the example given by the author, he finds that negative correlation is not necessary to achieve the risk reduction benefits from diversification. This correlation coefficient is used to measure the extent to which different markets hit their peaks and valleys at different times. They are the key element in Markowitz’s analysis. A perfect positive correlation indicates that two markets are in lockstep, moving up and down at precisely the same time whereas a perfect negative correlation means that two markets always move in opposite direction. According to Markowitz’s great contribution to investors’ wallets is his demonstration that anything less than perfect positive correlation can potentially reduce risk.

Professor Malkiel includes some charts and figures to further explain the theory or to demonstrate the point about diversification and its benefits. He further says that movements in long-term bonds do not mirror those of other assets, and long-term bonds tend to provide relatively stable returns when held to maturity.  Moreover, exhibits shown in the book demonstrate that three-year correlations of real estate bonds with the market are sufficiently low to provide important diversification benefits and have shown no tendency to become less favourable over time. Professor Malkiel will further discuss portfolio theory to craft appropriate asset allocations in the succeeding chapters.

Chapter 9: How Modern Portfolio Theory works 

In this chapter, Professor Malkiel begins with a refinement to modern portfolio theory citing that diversification cannot eliminate all risk because all stocks tend to move up and down together. Thus, in practice, it reduces some but not all risk. The basic logic behind the capital-asset pricing model is that there is no premium for bearing risks that can be diversified away; thus, to get a higher average long-run rate of return, you need to increase the risk level that cannot be diversified away.

Systematic risk, also called market risk, captures the reaction of individual stocks to general market swings. This is part of the total risk or variability that arises from the basic variability of stock prices in general market. The remaining variability in a stock’s returns is called unsystematic risk. Some stocks and portfolios tend to be very sensitive to market movements. This relative volatility or sensitivity to market moves can be estimated on the basis of the past record, popularly known by the Greek letter beta. Beta is based on the past however….

Professor Malkiel says that what makes new investment technology different is the definition and measurement of risk. Before the capital-asset pricing model, it was believed that the return on each security was related to the total risk inherent in that security. It was believed that the return from a security varied with the instability of that security’s particular performance, with the variability or standard deviation of the returns it produced.

The basic logic behind the capital-asset pricing model states that stocks can be combined in portfolios to eliminate specific risk, only the systematic risk will command a risk premium. Investors will not get paid for bearing risks that can be diversified away. The proof of the capital-asset pricing model can be stated as follows: If investors did get an extra return for bearing unsystematic risk, it would turn out that diversified portfolios made up of stock with large amounts of unsystematic risk would give larger returns than equally risky portfolios of stocks with less unsystematic risk.

Serious cracks in the CAPM will not lead to an abandonment of mathematical tools in financial analysis and return to traditional security analysis. There are reasons to avoid a rush to judgment: First, it is important to remember that stable returns are preferable less risky than very volatile returns; Secondly, you must keep in mind that it is very difficult to measure beta with any degree of precision and; Finally, investors should be aware that even if the long-run relationship between beta and return is flat, it can still be a useful investment management tool.

If beta is badly damaged as an effective quantitative measure of risk, is there anything to take its place? Stephen Ross has developed a theory of pricing in the capital markets called arbitrage pricing theory (APT). It has a wide influence both in the academic community and in the practical world of portfolio management. To understand its logic, one must remember the correct insight underlying the CAPM.

The only risk that investors should be compensated for bearing is the risk that cannot be diversified away. Only systematic risk will command a risk premium in the market. It appears that several other systematic risk measures affect the valuation of securities.

Chapter 10: The Market is Efficient with Pockets of Inefficiency

This chapter will tackle the attempts to show that the market is not efficient and that there is no such thing as a profitable random walk through Wall Street. Professor Malkiel reviews all the recent research proclaiming the demise of the efficient-market theory; EMT after all implies that market prices are unpredictable but hyper efficient in correcting itself. He concludes that obituaries are greatly exaggerated and the extent to which the stock market is usefully predictable has been vastly overstated.

Recall that the weak form of the efficient-market hypothesis says simply that the technical analysis of past price patterns to forecast the future is useless because any information from such an analysis will already have been incorporated in current market prices.

A random walk would characterize a price series where all subsequent price changes represent random departures from previous prices. This model states that investment returns are serially independent of each-other and that their probability distributions are constant through time. More recent work, however, indicated that the random-walk model does not strictly hold. Some consistent patterns of correlations, inconsistent with the model, have been uncovered. It is less clear that violations exist of the weak form of the efficient-market hypothesis, which states only that unexploited trading opportunities should not persist in any efficient market. (1) Stocks do sometimes get on one-way streets; (2) But eventually stock prices do change direction and hence stockholder returns tend to reverse themselves; (3) Stocks are subject to seasonal moodiness, especially at the beginning of the year and the end of the week.

Academics and financial analysts in the semi-strong school of market efficiency believe that all public information about a company is always reflected in the stock’s price. They are skeptical about the ability of fundamental security analysts to pore over data concerning a company’s earnings and dividends in an effort to find undervalued stocks, which represent good value for investors. Professor Malkiel cites some qualifications of value techniques: look for securities that (1) are relatively small, smaller is often better; (2) sell at low multiples compared with their earnings; (3) have low prices relative to the value of their assets, and; (4) have high dividends compared with their market prices.

Dogs of the Dow strategy is an interesting strategy that became popular in the mid-1990s. This is to combine some of the value patterns with a general contrarian style of investing consistent with the idea that out-of-favor stocks eventually tend to reverse direction.

Concluding comment of Professor Malkiel: market valuations rest on both logical and psychological factors. The theory of valuation depends on the projection of a long-term stream of dividends whose growth rate is extraordinarily difficult to estimate. Thus, fundamental value is never a definite number. It is a band of possible values, and prices can move sharply within this band whenever there is increased uncertainty. The appropriate risk premiums for common equities are changeable and far from obvious either to investors or to economists. There is room for the hopes, fears, and favorite fashions of market participants to play a role in the valuation process.

Chapter 11: How to Walk down Wall Street now that you know it is random

Part four of the book explains how-to-do-it guide for your random walk down Wall Street. In this chapter, Professor Malkiel offers general investment advice that should be useful to all investors, even if they don’t believe that security markets are highly efficient. He also says that you can take your random walk only after you have made detailed and careful plans with regard to all your investments, including your cash reserves. Think of the advice that follows a set of warm-up exercises that will enable you to reduce your income taxes and risk, at the same time increase your returns.

Exercise 1: Cover Thyself with Protection

Patience is key element in investing; you can’t afford to pull your money out at the wrong time. You need staying power to increase your earning attractive long-run returns. That’s why it is important to have non-investment resources to draw on should any emergency strike you or your family.

Exercise 2: Know your Investment

Determining clear goals is a part of investment process with disastrous results. You must decide what degree of risk you are willing to assume and what kinds of investments are most suitable to your tax bracket.

Exercise 3: Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can

One of the best ways to obtain extra investment funds is to avoid taxes legally. Professor Malkiel says that there are no income taxes on money invested in a retirement plan until you actually retire and use the money. Professor Malkiel cites some plans to give some examples.

Exercise 4: Be Competitive; Let the Yield on your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation

As Professor Malkiel mentions, some of the ready assets are necessary for pending expenses. There are four short-term investment instruments he points out that can at least help stand up to inflation. These are (1) money-market mutual funds; (2) money-market deposit accounts; (3) bank certificates; and (4) tax-exempt money-market funds.

Exercise 5: Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country

In this particular topic, Professor Malkiel mentions four kinds of bond purchases according to his view: (1) zero-coupon bonds, (2) bond mutual funds, (3) tax-exempt bonds and bond funds, and (4) U.S. Treasury inflation-protection securities.

Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home; Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles

The natural real estate investment for most people is the single-family home or the condominium.   They are encouraging home ownership and cites two important tax breaks: (1) Although rent is not deductible from income taxes, the two major expenses associated with homeownership-interest payments on your mortgage and property taxes are fully deductible; (2) realized gains in the value of your house that are tax exempt. In addition, ownership of a house is a good way to force yourself to save, and a house provides emotional satisfaction.

Estate agent shaking hands with customer after contract signature

Exercise 7: Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts

The packaging of ownership interests in real property into trusts called Real Estate Investment. This REITs are like any other common stock and are actively traded on the major stock exchanges.

Professor Malkiel further cites additional Exercises which are: (8) Tiptoe through the investment fields of gold and collectibles; (9) Remember the investment fields of gold and collectibles; and (10) diversify your investment steps. These exercises have been subject to a final checkup that you should do.

Chapter 12: Macro-Economic considerations are important for investors

This chapter is where you will learn how to become a financial bookie, according to Professor Malkiel. This is an important chapter because the money you are betting is your own.

Very long-run returns from common stocks are driven by two critical factors: the dividend yield at the time of purchase, and the future growth rate of the dividends. In principle, for the buyer who holds his stocks forever is worth the present or discounted value of its stream of future dividends. The discounted value of the stream of dividends can be shown with a very simple formula for long-run total return for either an individual stock or the market as a whole: long-run equity return = initial dividend yield + growth rate of dividends.

There are three eras of financial market returns Professor Malkiel discusses: Era I, the age of comfort, which covers the years of growth after World War II. Stockholders made out extremely well after inflation, whereas the meager returns earned by bondholders were substantially below the average inflation rate. Era II, the Age of Angst: widespread rebellion by millions of teenagers produced during the baby boom, economic, and political instability created by the Vietnam War. No one was exempt: neither stocks nor bonds. Era III, the Age of Exuberance is when the boomers matured, peace reigned, and a non-inflationary prosperity set in. It was a golden age for stockholders and bondholders.

The Age of the Millennium

Although Professor Malkiel states that he remains convinced that no one can predict short-term movements in securities markets, he does believe it is possible to estimate the likely range of long-run rates of return investors can expect from financial assets. It seems very clear that it would be unrealistic to anticipate that the generous double-digit returns earned by stock and bond investors during the 1980s and 1990s can be expected to continue in the early decades of the twenty-first century. Looking first at the bond market, we can get a very good idea of the returns that will be gained by long-term holders. Holders of good quality corporate bonds will earn if the bonds are held to maturity. Holders of long-term zero-coupon Treasury bonds will earn until maturity and so on.

He even is skeptical that anyone can predict the course of short-term stock price movements, and perhaps better off for it. He even shares his one favorite episodes from I Love a Mystery wherein this is about a greedy stock-market investor who wished that just once he would be allowed to see the paper, with its stock price changes, twenty-four hours in advance.

We can employ the same methods used in Chapter Twelve for the market as a whole to project the long-run rates of return for individual stocks, where it is reasonable to project a modest rate of growth over an extended period. Again, he suggests to only use the first two determinants in the analysis. He estimates the rate of return on an individual stock by adding the initial dividend yield to the expected growth rate of earnings. Although P/E ratios are obviously very important in explaining returns in the short run, such valuation changes are less important over the very long run and are unpredictable in any event.

Chapter 13: You can eat well or sleep well, it’s up to you

This chapter tackles a life-cycle guide to investing. Professor Malkiel even cites that it is simple to say that a thirty-four-year-old and a sixty-four-year-old saving for retirement may cautiously use different financial instruments to accomplish their goals. The thirty-four-year-old just beginning to enter the peak years of salaried earnings that can use wages to cover any losses from increased risk and the sixty-four-year-old does not have the long-term luxury of relying on salary income and cannot afford to lose money that will be needed in the near future.

In essence, these strategic considerations have to do with a person’s capacity for risk. Most of the discussion about risk has dealt with one’s attitude toward risk. Although both of them may invest in a certificate of deposit, the younger will do so because of an attitudinal aversion to risk and the older because of the reduced capacity to accept the risk. The most important investment decision you will probably ever make concerns the balancing of asset categories at different stages of your life.

There are key principles to determine a rational basis for making asset-allocation decisions:

  1. History shows that risk and return are related.
  2. The risk of investing in common stocks and bonds depends on the length of time the investments are held. The longer an investor’s holding period, the lower the risk.
  3. Dollar-cost averaging can be a useful, though controversial, technique to reduce the risk of stock and bond investment.
  4. You must distinguish between your attitude toward and your capacity for risk.

The risks you can afford to take depend on your total financial situation, including the types and sources of your income exclusive of investment income.

In this section contains reviews of three broad guidelines that will help an investment plan to particular circumstances:

  1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets:

Always keep in mind – a specific need must be funded with specific assets dedicated to that need.

  1. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk:

The biggest adjustment to the general guidelines concerns your own attitude toward risk. It is for this reason that successful financial planning is more of an art than a science. General guidelines can be extremely helpful in determining what proportion of a person’s funds should be deployed among different asset categories. Risk tolerance is an essential aspect of any financial plan and only you can evaluate your attitude toward risk.

And lastly:

  1. Persistent Savings in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off.

Professor Malkiel shares an advice of Talmud Rabbi Isaac saying that one should always divide his wealth into three parts: a third in land, a third in merchandise or business, and a third ready-at-hand. Such an asset allocation is hardly unreasonable but can improve this advice because we have more refined instruments and a greater appreciation of the considerations that make different asset allocations appropriate for different people.

As investors age, they should start cutting back on riskier investments and start increasing the proportion of the portfolio committed to bonds and stocks that pay generous dividends such as REITs.

For most people, Professor Malkiel recommends funds rather than individual stocks for portfolio formation. He cites two reasons for this. First, most people do not have sufficient capital to diversify properly; and Secondly, he recognizes that most younger people will not have substantial assets and will be accumulating portfolios by monthly investments.

Chapter 14: Investing advice now that your get Malkiel’s book

This chapter offers rules for buying stocks and specific recommendations for the instruments you can use to follow the asset allocation guidelines presented in Chapter Thirteen. By now, you have made sensible decisions on taxes, housing, insurance, and how to get the most out of your cash reserves. You also have reviewed your objectives, your stage in the life cycle, and your attitude toward risk and decided how much of your assets to put into the stock market.

In the first case, you simply buy shares in various index funds designed to track the different classes of stocks that make up your portfolio. This method also has the virtue of being simple. Under the second system, you jog down Wall Street, picking your own stocks and getting in comparison with the yield obtained with index funds much higher or much lower rates of return; and third, you can sit on a curb and choose a professional investment manager to do the walking down Wall Street for you.

Index funds trade only when necessary, whereas active funds typically have a turnover rate close to 100 percent, and often even more. Index funds are also tax-friendly. It is also relatively predictable. It is fully invested. And finally, it is easier to evaluate. With index funds, you know exactly what you are getting, and investment process is made incredibly simple.

The indexing strategy is one that Professor Malkiel recommended even before index funds exist. It is clearly an idea whose time had come. Although he recommends indexing or so-called passive investing, there are valid criticisms of too narrow a definition of indexing.

One of the advantages of passive portfolio management is that such a strategy minimizes transactions costs as well as taxes. To a considerable extent, index mutual funds help solve the tax problem. The do not trade from security to security and, thus, they tend to avoid capital gains taxes.

The fund is able to defer capital gains by the following techniques: First, the portfolio is indexed to the S&P 500 so there is no active management that tends to realize gains; Second, when securities do have to be sold, the fund sells the highest-cost securities first; Third, the funds offsets unavoidable gains by judiciously selling other securities on which there is a loss. As a result, the fund may not perfectly track the benchmark index, but it should come very close.

In this chapter, Professor Malkiel further states four rules for successful stock selection:

  • Rule 1: Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings growth for at least five years.
  • Rule 2: Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably be justified by a firm foundation of value.
  • Rule 3: It helps to buy stocks with the kinds of stories of anticipated growth on which investors can build castles in the air.
  • Rule 4: Trade a little as possible.

Investing is a bit like lovemaking, according to Professor Malkiel. Ultimately, it is really an art requiring a certain talent and the presence of a mysterious force called luck. If you have the talent to recognize stocks that have good value, and the art to recognize a story that will catch the fancy of others, it’s a great feeling to see the market vindicate you. If you are not so lucky, limit your risks and avoid much of the pain that sometimes involved in the playing.

 

Tocqueville’s Democracy in America – As a Framework for The Future

It’s the most important work on American democracy and the US in the 1830s. Democracy in America is a very long book 1000 pages though. The truth is that every American and every Political Scientist should read it.

Two ways to look at it:

  1. It’s a historical artifact: it’s historical.
  2. Work of political science and sociology.

The French Revolution ruined the de Tocqueville family wealth. The author studied, Voltaire, Rouseau, Pascal. In the 1830 July Revolution , Tocqueville takes the oath for the new Burbons. Tocqueville wanted to try looking into the US for prison reform. However, he wanted to identify lessons from US democracy, it’s inclination; what should we fear or hope for in this new democratic movement emerging in the US? The Trail of Tears occurred in the 1830s….Also the Nullification Crisis. There was also slavery; bu Tocqueville observed a ‘classless’ society.

Funny Associations:

  • The Voluntary Association / Local Sovereignty
  • American Bible Society; Temperance Society;
  • The Lady’s Association for the Benefit of Gentle Women of Good Family Reduced In Fortune Below the State of Comfort To Which They Have Been Accustomed.
  • Voluntary Associations: don’t rely on the government to solve their problems.
  • Democracy at the local level then is far more robust. Tocqueville and his co-author won a cash prize for their research.
  • The federal government was very small; voluntary association was central and patriotism is evident.

  • The Hierarchies of Power could be crushed as long as we are all being treated free and equal….and meeting up to talk about it.
  • Freedom and Equality are mutually re-inforcing. But then we asked;
  • Freedom and Equality seem to pull in different direction….
  • Locke wanted to separate powers; but it’s an institutional device.
  • How to combine popular rule with political wisdom?
  • “1835 Democracy in America”
  • America is a blank slate. Tocqueville thought that France would become like America: democracy is likely to revert back to monarchy.
  • Equality of conditions: this is the equality of conditions (equality of opportunity). It’s a gradual spread of the concept.

Features of American Democracy:

I) Local government: localism: local democracies are the cradle of civil society in townships. The institutions of putting the democracy in the reach of all the people were not that expensive to build. The people are legislating and organizing. Alexis de Tocqueville told his readers to read Rousseau every day;

The township format itself is Aristotelian. The township exists by nature. There is the old Polis character described by Aristotle which Tocqueville believes is very important for a democratic society.

II) Civil Association: these voluntary groups are immensely powerful and energizing. There is the mother science concept; uniting in associations. Trying to fix common goals; civic association.

Robert Putnam: happy for social capital. The decline in association is the Bowling Alone phenomenon. These are not natural times; It’s a learned activity; the Civic Society goes into decline as our isolation cripples our Civic Associations.

Are we in a couch potato crisis? Yes, in 2018!!

III) Spirit of Religion: America is primarily a puritan democracy; early Puritanisms. Religion will not disappear because of the decline of faith; it’s rather a shift in faith. We can’t separate faith: dignity of the individual. Tocqueville looked at religion purely for social effects.

Increase the number of factions in order to prevent anyone from being the dominant one.

The idea of democracy does claim that this idea that political correctness is a danger.

Moral of the State:

  • Compassion, restiveness,
  • Democracy has made us gentler: broadcast tv has made us indifferent to others in our group.
  • Bill Clinton “I feel your pain.”

Political Educator: – There is a divine

  • Restful. We want to ask what kind of people we create.
  • What is the democratic statecraft? A new political science; it’s based on a novel history of human agency; as any reader knows there is a power in history.
  • It’s like we are part of an immense process. 
  • Certainly the pendulum has swung away from civil society in many ways. But generally online interactions are positive.

Business Management Relies on Financial Sciences | Ratios in Finance

Challenges of finding a Pure Play: it’s not easy to find a firm that is exactly like the other firms you are comparing. Loblaws & Metro: Outlets like No Frill (Loblaws). But what is days o inventory different at Metro: their days of inventory is shorter.

  • Loblaws
  • Joe Fresh
  • Shoppers (long shelf life)

Product Mix is different for Loblaws than Metro.

Risk and Profitability Analysis

  • Analyze Firm’s operating profitability and risk
  • Compare performance over time (Time Series Analysis)
  • Compare performance across firms (Cross-Sectional Analysis)
  • Look at the components of profitability
  • Look at different kinds of risk.

Principles of Ratio Analysis

  • Focus on the inputs
  • Importance of prior analyses
  • Be aware of events that can affect comparability –M&A, accounting changes, changes in strategy (e.g., Loblawsvs. Metro)
  • Consistency in approach
  • Use Ending Balance Sheets
  • Most common, fits the data availability in most cases
  • Use Average Balance Sheets
  • Most economically meaningful as Balance sheets are snapshots
  • Use Beginning Balance Sheets
  • Beginning assets/liabilities used to drive the operations
  • Useful for forecasting and valuation
  • Do not rely on 3rdparty ratios
  • Calculate all ratios yourself

Measures of Short-Term Risk

  • Working Capital = Current Assets –Current Liabilities
  • Would we prefer a positive or negative amount of working capital? A.) Positive B.) Negative

Working Capital = Current Assets minus Current Liabilities.

Positive working capital: CA – CL > 0 is the ideal.

Ratio #1: Current Ratio

  • Current assets / Current liabilities
  • Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities
  • Measure of ability of the firm to pay short-term liabilities on time

Ratio #2: Quick Ratio

  • Current highly liquid assets / Current liabilities
  • Current highly liquid assets (i.e., cash, marketable, account receivable) – no inventory or prepaid expenses.

Prepaid expenses = the rent. Which firm might have a current and quit ratio that differ dramatically?

  1. A big 4 auditing firm: very little prepaid, no inventory
  2. Airline: no inventory, provide services with a fixed asset.
  3. Dell: eRetailer movement inventory trying to be just in time. Small amount of inventory.
  4. Loblaws: it has a problem where inventory is in fact liquid: they have a high turnover.

Ratio #3 Inventory Turnover

  • Inventory Turnover = COGS/ Average Inventory
  • Days Inventory = (Average Inventory / COGS) x 365

Indicated how fast firms sell merchandise. If inventory turn over twice a year, then they average one-half of a year in inventory (and a days inventory of 182.5). Why do we typically want a higher inventory turnover?

For what sort of firm might a higher days inventory be preferred.

  • Wine Makers you want a higher days inventory
  • Grocers for fruit you want it to be shorter.
  • Fashion retailer there is the potential for fashion obsolescence.
  • Apple Inc: technology obsolescence. (you don’t want the iPhone to be in your inventory).

Raw Materials

RW                                                      Work in Progress

|_____________|________________________________|______________________| Finished Goods

Picked                  Grape Juice

CA/CL (4) C+ A/R+M/S < .19

CL                                         highly illiquid assets

You don’t sell in a pinch, not very liquid. You might have some short-term obligations to the bank.

Ratio #4 Accounts Receivable Turnover

  • Accounts Receivable Turnover = Sales

Average Accounts Receivable

  • Days Accounts Receivable = (Average Accounts Receivable/Sales) x 365

Measures how quickly a firm collects cash. If A/R turns over twice a year, then days accounts receivable is 182.5 or on average one-half of a year to collect receivables. High turnover and fewer days to collect A/R is generally preferred.

For what sort of firms might it be normal to have higher days accounts receivable:

  1. Lemonade Stand no extension
  2. Consumer goods companies that allow customers to pay in instalments
  3. Companies that only accept cash or VISA
  4. Companies whose suppliers do not extend them credit.

If you are extending credit: you would need a line of credit if your suppliers have no extension of credit.

In 2011, Apple $108 Billion in sales

(Average Accounts Receivable/Sales) x 365

5.36B + 5.5B =

2

108 billion x 365 = 18.38. Apple has perfect just in time inventory

Ratio #4.5: Turnovers to “Days”

Payables turnover = Purchases / Accounts Payable.

Where purchases = COGS + Change in Inventory

  • Accounts Payable
  • where purchases = COGS + change INV
  • Turnover tells us how many “cycles” there were in a year.
  • If Inventory Turnover = 3, that means over 365 days, I “churn” my inventory completely 3 times.
  • Hence at any time, I have 365/3 =121.7 days of inventory

In general

  • Days Inventory = 365/(Inventory t/o)
  • Days Receivable = 365/(Receivables t/o)
  • Days Payable = 365/(Payables t/o)
  • Cash Cycle = Days Inventory + Days Receivable – Days Payable
  • The smaller this is, the less the need for working capital
  • Other people’s money

Days Inventory + Days Receivable – Days Payable

Days Inventory + Days

|____________________|___________________|

 

Days Inventory + Days Receivable

|____________________|___________________|

35 Days                               45 Days

Example of Dell

Dell has a negative cash cycle. Dell always have cash and don’t need financing. General contractors get paid by customers and then collect interest. If this is negative, this mean you do not have external financing opportunities.

Example of Bug in a Rug

Shipping from France means you will need a line of credit. Example Rug Canada Inc. Bug in a Rug toys.

Days Inventory + Days Receivable – Days Payable

Days Inventory + Days Receivable

|____________________|___________________|

  • Days 45 Days

Days Payable

60 Days

You need a line of credit because you are shipping from France. And you have to make payments to France BEFORE you even get paid from customers.

Ratio #5 Fixed Asset Turnover

Only include tangible assets (no goodwill).

Fixed Asset Turnover = Sales

Average Fixed Assets

  • Measures the relation between investment in long-term or fixed assets (such as property, plant, equipment) and sales. Note fixed assets refer to tangible assets (i.e., no goodwill or patents).
  • Efficient use of fixed assets would be associated with high sales.
  • If fixed assets turn over every four years, then each dollar invested in fixed assets is generating a quarter of a dollar in sales per year.
  • A high turnover is preferred to a low one.

For what type of company might a high fixed asset turnover ratio simply be a function of the industry the firm is in, as opposed to efficient use of capital assets on management’s part?

  • McKinsey fixed assets are low Sales high
  • Air Canada High Fixed Assets
  • A Construction Company: high fixed asset, fixed assets, maybe it’s customer assets. Intangible impacts performance. Have stars, better reputation
  • A Supermarket: fixed asset tells you about performance

Ratio #6: Total Assets Turnover

  • Total assets turnover = Sales

Average total assets

1.) its accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover, and fixed asset turnover have increased.

2.) The beginning and ending balance for all assets in year 1 were the same.

3.) Sales and COGS were the same in year 1 and year 2,

Year 1                                  Year 2

Sales                     =             Sales

COGS                    =             COGS


Sales  Sales

A/R                       >             A/R (down)

What must be true.

COGS  COGS

INV                       <             INV (down)


Sales  Sales

FA                          <             FA (down)

 

What are some possible explanations as to why total asset turnover decreased year-over-year?

  1. A) accounts receivable has increased year-over-year
  2. B) Cash has increased year-over-year
  3. C) inventory has increased year-over-year
  4. D) Goodwill decreased year-over-year
  5. E) Prepaid expenses have decreased year-over-year

Total Asset Turnover

  • What transaction might account for an decrease in total asset turnover without being inconsistent with the other ratio changes from the previous page?

Has the firm:

  • Sold some land for its value on the balance sheet
  • Collected more cash this year than last year from customers who bought products on credit
  • Declared but did not pay a dividend
  • Took out a loan
  • Depreciated some equipment

You will need to do this with your group projects. No more debt lead to higher interest

Leverage and Risk

Should firms with volatile operating profitability finance their operations with debt as opposed to equity? A.) Yes B.) No

No, more debt leads to higher interest

Given the points above, which firm should be most likely to finance with debt as opposed to equity?

  • A utilities company
  • An airline: has sticky wages, operating leases, lots of fixed costs. Air Canada debt is large.
  • A tech start-up: no debt on capital, all financed.
  • A junior mining company: financed by Equity = stock exchanges. Not with Debt.
  • A utilities company: inelastic demand, cost +5% profitability is regulated.

Ratio #7: Debt-to-Equity Ratio

  • Debt (long term, short term, cap. Leases)

Total Equities

  • Percentage of total financing provided by creditors (debt) as opposed to owners (stock)

Manchester United: net income $137million

$160 million why?

It look like a massive interest expense.

Revenue

Cost

Op II                     160

Interest               -279

Net Income        -137

Ronaldo was sold. Measures of Long-Term Risk

Ratio #8: Interest Coverage Ratio

  • Earnings Before Interest and Income tax /interest expense
  • This is the number of times interest is covered by income
  • Indicates the relative protection that operating profitability provides to debtors
  • Really should be higher than 1, if not much higher than 1

Which of the following transactions or outcomes do not ultimately increase the D/E ratio?

  1. A firm issuing a bond
  2. Issuing dividends: Debt/Equity DOWN
  3. A net loss for the period
  4. A firm repurchasing its share
  5. All of the above increase the D/E ratio.

Imagine a firm has a strict debt convenant that forbids the D/E ratio from going above a certain point. How would this effect the transactions listed in A – E?

Debt convents shift to existing debt holders.

 

Ratio #9: Return on Assets

  • ROA disaggregates into the product of two ratios:
  • ROA = Profit margin ratio x Total assets turnover

ROA = Net Income x Sales

Sales                                    Assets

ROA tells us something about the firm’s operating strategy.

Profit margin ratio = Net Income

Sales

Total assets turnover = Sales

Average total assets.

ROA = NI/Sales x Sales/Assets

 

  • Operating Strategy
  • Profit Margin Ratio = NI/Sales
  • (Tell us about the market monopoly higher rates)
  • Total Asset Turnover = Sales/Total Assets
  1. Costco NI/Sales (DOWN ALL) x Sales/Assets (UP ALL)
  2. GM NI/Sales (DOWN ALL) x Sales/Assets (DOWN ALL) so they improved cost structure
  3. SPACEx NI/Sales (UP ALL) x Sales/Assets (DOWN ALL)
  4. Microsoft NI/Sales (UP ALL) x Sales/Assets (UP ALL)

 

  • ROE = NI/Sales x Sales/Assets x Assets/Equity
  • ROE = ROA x Leverage Ratio

The leverage ratio tells us something about the firm’s financing strategy

ROE = L (Up) + E

E

  • Causes the numerator to go up: it depends on what happens to equity.
  • Leverage ratio = Ata/AE
  • Financial Strategy is revealed.

Example HOME

H                           EQ                         ROA                      ROE

1M                        1M         1.1M      100k/1m = 10%

1M                        0             1.1M      100k/1m = 10%

900K      -10%                     -10%

1M                                                      infinity – 0%

ROE

ROA is negative amplified it to negative infinity.

ROE > ROA

Ratio #10: Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE can be disaggregated into 3 ratios:

ROE = profit margin X total asset turnover X Leverage Ratio

ROE = ROA X leverage ratio

The leverage ratio tells us something about the firm’s financing strategy

As a firm’s debt increases, what happens to its ROE?

A.) it increases

B.) it decreases

C.) it depends

Lessons from Peter Munk – Canadian Entrepreneur

Start A Company In An Emerging Industry You Are Familiar With (Some What)

(November 8, 1927 – March 28, 2018) Hungarian-Canadian Peter Munk moved to Canada 1941. He was of Jewish decent and Studied Engineering in the 1950s at UofT. There were no women in engineering in the 1950s….Peter Munk was interested a radio technology and his uncle was in that space. He was interested in radio tubes; with $3000 dollars he establish Clairtone: it was a Canadian success company. Largely, due to innovating in the cooling of the cathode tubes needed to project images on the TV. It was the BlackBerry (another Canadian startup) of the late 1950s – 1960s. Canada was mostly resources, so people didn’t believe that something that sold at $500 from Canada(?) could be sold at Bloomingdales.

Create Your Product in a Jurisdiction That Protects The Rare and Cool

The Canadian government was very interested in protecting industry and Clairtone became a natural darling of Canadian federal governments and consumers generally. The company scaled across the Canadian market. Most Canadians will remember the Clairtone product line. It was the first company to use transistors in the television.

It was a Canadian Watch this commercial from over 50 years ago. “Smart people won’t settle for something new.”

Do Not Get Sucked Into Relocating Via a Government:

The Clairtone company transitioned to Nova Scotia thanks to incredible government grants. Munk wanted to help Nova Scotia’s shipping industry. Premier Stanfield successfully attracted Peter Munk’s business into moving to New Glasgow in Nova Scotia. Why? Job creation + the Nova Scotia shipping industry skill set could be transferred to technology. However there were bond payment defaults, workers in Nova Scotia went on strike. As a result, the Government of Nova Scotia bought the TV company in 1970. Peter Munk walked away with a lot of capital.

Re-Invent Yourself Where Necessary (Too Much Knowledge is Bad)

Munk built a television set prototype with transistors rather than vacuum tubes in hi sbasement. Munk thought that too much knowledge can be dangerous: he was driven to be number one. He didn’t know transistors because he hadn’t taken that class yet. Peter Munk had to re-invent himself but reallocating his capital into hotels. Created South Pacific Hotel organization in Fiji etc. Munk sold that and then started in Natural Oil in 1979, he lost a lot of money and had a good board. So he pivoted to mining. Munk worked with Joseph Rotman and had a few lucky breaks. He founded Barrick Mining company. Barrick Gold is now the largest gold mining company. They bought CanFlo: they had diversified by they moved to coal, oil, therma all of that collapsed; the Bank wanted Munk to rescue the company and then merge CanFlo with Barrick. They had amazing management miners; outstanding in geotechnology, metallurgy.

Acquisitions: Bought Texaco mining; double the production, half the overhead. Bought GoldStrike, BlackMinerals. As the stock improved they exercised their magic and into all the mines. Mining is about evening out the cycle. Barrick Gold would use it’s shares to buy companies.

Why Does Canada Struggle at Business? And How Can We Get It Back?

Munk wonders out load: Why there are so few global leader companies from Canada. For example, a tiny country like Denmark has 6 major success stories: Phillips, Shell etc. Even BlackBerry, Nortel. Canadians are the best but we screw-up; Seagrams, the Wrightman brother owned Canary Wharf, Cadillac Fairview.

If I could provide an answer. 1) it’s easier to move to the US and test your idea in that market and then stay there, even if the standard of living etc is not as great as Canada’s. 2) tyranny of distance: doing business across a vast underpopulated country is costly, 3) government is selectively protectionist; helping certain companies who support the various political party leadership a) get re-elected, b) fundraise etc etc. The answer to getting it back is a billion dollar question.

Peter Munk: Give Back to Your Country

Peter Munk is extremely patriotic of Canada. The immigrants to Canad were given security, free healthcare, etc etc. He believe that where you come from matters, but it’s where you are going too. Money is a token to recognize success, do not hand that money over to your kids, it’s better giving them education, values, and tell them how to live a life. As a result Munk believes in redistributing the funds. Money should go back to the society: Canada in Peter Munk’s case.

A Successful and Happy Life

Money is a token of success. It is not the success itself. Money is a measure. George Soros who is also from Hungary broke the Bank of England and caused the pound to collapse. It led to John Major’s failed leadership. That is one way to make money by Munk believes these speculators are not the ones to aspire to. After you did get that money, it’s what you do with the Money. You need to look at the second side, you should not horde it. If you do the achievement part + the second part. You can’t do much better than that.

How Mainstream Publications Overlook Their Own Weirdness and Just Blame Facebook…

[Disclaimer this is a non-partisan publication]
And I am no Facebook apologist, but I thought it was worth raising awareness about the following:

[Transcript] Hey, I had to talk about this because I noticed, this morning, something really interesting, and I mean, more interesting than your standard cat video while you’re scrolling through Instagram. I was on Twitter and I clicked on a link to a really cool story called “Watch a Robot ‘Hen,’ Robot Chicken, with some chicks, flock of chicks.” And when you scroll to the bottom of this article, you’ll notice some moderately spooky or weird links from Outbrain and I think we need to look at Outbrain, but let me just show you on my phone what it looks like.

So, on my phone, I don’t know if you can see here, but the link at the bottom… Where’s my… Yeah, there’s my finger. The link at the bottom, one of them says, “Justin Trudeau about to legalize something controversial.” You click on that link, it takes you to this web page, which I will provide a link to in the video. You can see it right now probably. So I’m just voicing over what I see. Now, isn’t it kind of interesting this content is basically false or low-quality news? It’s not from the CNN website. If you look at the top URL, it’s not from CNN. It’s from something called insiderentertainment.com, and Outbrain is promoting it. At the bottom of the page, you can see what it’s really about. It’s about bingo. Fair play. I know that Wired is a reputable publisher and I know that Outbrain is really reputable as well, and so they post this in order to draw traffic to commercial interest.

Now, imagine if this was actually not true (which it obviously is not true): Justin Trudeau has legalized gambling to cover costs. It’s, basically an attack on the current liberal government in Canada. So this is Outbrain directly on Wired magazine, a reputable technology publication, which has probably seen hard times. Why are they seeing hard times? Facebook is eroding their revenue. YouTube is eroding their revenue. PewDiePie is getting 2 million hits per video and “The Washington Post” is only getting 1 million hits. This isn’t fair. So, what do we need to do? We should be attacking Facebook as publications. We should be criticizing them in particular and there’s some legitimate arguments. There are very legitimate arguments regarding Facebook, but what’s being overlooked is this hilarious Outbrain and Taboola redirection network.

So what they do is, as you can see at the bottom of the article, there are sponsored stories from third parties. You click on it and it’s about driving traffic from Wired, as reputable site, to, you know, whatever you wanna sell these folks on the internet. Now, why would Wired work with them? Because ad revenue, they need the money. They’re desperate actually in many cases because people don’t wanna pay for what they feel is free even though 10 years ago, 20 years ago you’d have to buy Wired Magazine to read these great articles. So you’ve got Outbrain, they are reputable, they look at the content, they tie the articles to that content and boom, it’s great.

They have to vet their publishers, but it’s a chicken in the end. They need the publishers and at the same time, they need the suppliers, the actual companies that will publish articles to drive traffic. And it’s this weird situation where they might not necessarily vet and approve of every story and say, “Oh, valid. This is a legitimate story.” They’re happy to take the money and run, and Wired magazine is complicit in this. Now, another company that is even more famous for ingenuity for sure, for having that ability to create a click worthy the article is Taboola, and they’re based in Europe, Israel, in the US and they publish articles on places like “Huffington Post.”

So, when you scroll down to what appears to be, you know, a reputable website, “HuffPost,” sure, you read this article about Cambridge Classica or Analytica, whatever it’s called, and then you scroll at the bottom and you have “You May Like” a bunch of ads for things that are like. Some of them are pretty dubious. You click on “Forget Lithoium. We’re advocating You Buy Electric Cars.” Fine, I suppose. It’s not pretending to be CNN, the website, but it’s interesting what’s going on here. So the media isn’t actually going after these two publications and the other publishers that redirect people from these websites to often questionable, sometimes questionable, not all I’d say, you know. Let’s just pretend it’s 20% ballpark, a number I made up, but it’s clearly some of these publishers are dubious and are not legitimate. But let’s look at “Wired Magazine’s” business model, let’s look at “Huffpost” business model and analyze what’s really going on here.

These companies are under duress, you know. What, with me, you could say, but they’re going after Facebook and no publisher, mainstream publisher, will go after what’s directly on their own web pages, again, because that’s how they make money. And this speaks to the broader problem of what I call $ad Revenue. So that’s ad revenue that is clickbait driven, that is about intensity of the viewership, about entertainment over factual information, the goal of which is to drive traffic to their sites, CNN or Wired or whoever other…Fox News, whatever.

They’re all in the game of eyeball collection and then redistributing those eyeballs or selling those people off to various business commercial interests, which is fair play. But they’re not auditing the quality and the veracity of the claims on these click-worthy, little, crazy articles on the bottom because they need the money. And these content redistributors don’t have the time to vet everything themselves, so we all point at Facebook. Facebook this and that because Facebook’s a multi-billion dollar company. It should be able to solve this, but we don’t look at the Taboola and Outbrain. So, I guess, even the reputable publishers are saying things like, “Donald Trump is about to cause World War III. Click on this link. Find out more about his evil and crazy actions, and while you’re at it, look at the bottom. Take a look at this weird article and try some bingo.” So thank you very much. I thought that’d be kind of a cool thing to share.

Weapons of Math Destruction an Important Insight

Math is Logic, Math is Beautify, Math is Abuse-able:

Math is logic and it should be ported to social discussions. O’Neil worked with Larry Summers and O’Neil says that the trick of the economic downturn in 2008 was that everyone trusted the math nerds who were actually lying and engaging in mathematical abuse. But there is more to this story….

Data Science determines who are the Winners and Losers:

The algorithms are opinions embedded in code. It takes past data and builds a predictive model of what your goal as a company is in the future. You impose your algorithmic goals, we train our algorithms for success. There is no objective algorithm. We were marketing these things as if it is being mathematical but they are corrupted as well. Three areas of concern for Kathy O’Neil are:

  • Widespread: where the less well off get a loan, scoring systems are not appropriate for real people.
  • Mysterious: these algorithms are like secret laws that are not held accountable for anything.
  • Destructive: they ruin people’s lives, opportunities are getting taken away from people; there is a negative feedback loop; just thinking about university grades as a feedback loop itself.

Teach Assessment Problem:

Standardized test performance in order weed out bad teachers has failed according to O’Neil. If you have a test system the statistical scores it is hard to know how the kids did well. The error sample of their students (the hot and cold room) is significant. O’Neil said she was not allowed to understand how these people were evaluated. They shamed the teachers, but they couldn’t get the testing model. It wasn’t meaningful analysis. Teachers were punished for the previous year’s students if the teacher’s from the previous year were cheating on the tests for those kids: in essence passing the problem forward. I remember teaching swimming to a kid that had extreme ADHD, I failed her and their parents wanted the kid to progress to the next level  anyway so they tried to pressure me; their argument was that they had spent the money….I didn’t pass that kid up the chain. But if my job was at stake, I might have….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personality Tests for Jobs:

They do systematically discriminate for jobs using an algorithm. Algorithm’s basically codify the past practices, therefore, they basically want more males in power. So one kid’s dad was suing 7 companies for creating personality tests that filter out mentally challenged people. Human resources is also a huge problem, these folks think they are filtering appropriately but they are biased towards certain attributes.

Algorithms are Value Laden Decision Making Processes: Predicting health outcomes: doctors having it is great, but insurance companies and companies discriminate against people who have high health risks. 

Solutions:

  1. Hippocratic Oath for Data Scientists.
  2. Mathematical Models need to be Improved because We are Hiding Behind Data to Perpetuate Past Patterns of behaviour.
  3. Anonymity doesn’t help this problem because you can categorize people using other markers to determine their race extra.
  4. Learn more….